cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Jun 28 2009 01:36 PM
Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock.

Roughly noon Sunday here in the CDT. "93L" is now really centered closer to 23N 90W and tracking nearly due west (this would be just northwest of the tip of the Yucatan, and heading west). The convection others have noted is merely trailing convection behind the wave, as has largely been the case for the past several days, and mostly fanned by some increasingly strong upper-level winds, or fueled by outflow boundaries and/or daytime heating over land, et cetera.

The point being, "93L" now barely stands out, and in the history of features tracked as "Invests," barely cuts it. The sweet spot it found itself in while traveling through the western Caribbean has given way to impinging bursts of northerly to northeasterly shear, and toxic dry air entrainment.

There is a small chance that as the TUTT low which originally aided in 93's chances, by way of its position, pulls further away to the west, the wave (93L) could find itself in the western GOM with maybe some time to fester a bit in a less hostile shear environment (a big if)... before either following the TUTT into Mexico itself -- or eventually being recurved back northeastward - also a big if (There is really not much of any mechanism by which the wave can break from its continued westwardish track, at least over the next day or two).

All in all, unless its environment markedly improves over the next 72 hours, 93L looks set to head into eastern Mx and/or Texas by around mid-week, bringing some enhanced showers, thunderstorms, and some gusty winds.

The models do not have a good handle on where 93L is located, nor the environment it is really in, so this may make for forecasts out beyond 24 hours not particularly reliable today. The GFDL presumes that 93 is still around the northwestern Caribbean or tip of the Yucatan. This model would have a very strong wave or marginal TS make landfall along west-central Florida Wednesday night. HWRF is also too far back, and assumes 93L is still closer to the tip of the Yucatan drifting much more north, than west. The b run FSU MM5 actually looks to have the best feel for what 93L is doing, at present, but appears a little aggressive on 93's ability to ramp up into a tropical storm (this scenario - 93L becoming a strong TS in the Bay of Campeche, is certainly plausible, but at this time that run looks a little hot). There is a tentative recon set up for tomorrow.. which could provide some very helpful information which would then feed into the models in time for Tuesday runs.

2PM: Editing this post to mention that there is a possibility of a low forming over the Yucatan - this would be a result of 93L having crossed it, but not the actual wave I discussed above, itself. Should a new surface low take hold there, it could exit the Yucatan and enter the Bay of Campeche, as early as tomorrow, entering a far less hostile environment for potential development.



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