Thu Jul 02 2009 07:32 AM
4th of July Weekend... areas to watch

Currently 7 AM EDT or 12Z on Thursday.

Three minor areas to watch over the long weekend:
Bay of Campeche- Area of cycling organized thunderstorms moving into the BOC area.

Western Caribbean- Upper level Low appears to be attaining some warm core characteristics as a few clouds have appeared in the center of the Low. Grand Cayman is currently reporting clouds at 1800ft.
MWCR 021100Z 13011KT 9999 FEW018 BKN200 27/23 Q1014 NOSIG=

Third area, and possibly an area to watch for the next week is the tropical wave just west of 45W.
Yesterday's Carribean Discussion mentioned that this wave is forecast to change from a positvely tilted wave to a negatively tilted wave. With the height extending up to 400mb... or around 20,000 feet. At some time the wind behind the wave are forecast to increase to35 to 50 knots ( at the 850mb, or 5000ft level). Possibly due to pressure gradient differences. Read the latest Caribbean Discussion here:
Caribbean Forecast Discussion

Positive and Negative tilt definitions here:
Negatively tilted trough definition

edit- Currently none of the 00z tropical forecast models are indicating any development in the above listed areas.~danielw

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