MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 19 2009 06:57 AM
Bill Could Brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday

11AM EDT 22 Aug 2009 Update
Cat II Bill is now heading north and slowly weakening and with an anticipated turn to the northeast, Bill could brush Nova Scotia as a Cat I on Sunday. Environmental Canada has issued appropriate warnings. NHC has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for eastern Massachusetts for this evening/tonight as follows:

"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET."

During last night and through this morning the winds at Hamilton, Bermuda, have been steady at about 40mph with gusts to 55mph. Late yesterday evening, Commissioners Point reported a wind gust to 97mph.

The wave in the eastern Atlantic remains disorganized.
ED

5 PM EDT 21 Aug 2009 Update
Bill has weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, and is bringing winds and rain to Bermuda tonight. Bill is still in very good conditions for development and appears to be going through an eyewall replacement cycle, it could restrengthen again before hitting cooler waters.\

Bill is no longer expected to affect New England with winds, but Canada must remain watch. The possibility of recurving out to sea without landfall is also once again high.

In the east Atlantic we are watching a wave that has a <30% chance to develop over the next few days, no invest designation has been placed on this area as of yet.

4 PM EDT 20 Aug 2009 Update
A hurricane Watch is now up for the islands of Bermuda.

Bermuda Radar
Bermuda Weather Service Webcam Recording
Current Weather at Hamilton

8 AM EDT 20 Aug 2009 Update
Bill has weakened somewhat overnight, but is expected to restrengthen as shear lessens.

Tomorrow conditions are complex so it could gain or lose some strength depending on how much the trough interacts with it.

Most likely it will not landfall in New England, but it is by no means totally conifdent in that. The chances for landfall, although less, are still there.

The forecast track still keeps it offshore, but Cape Cod and parts of New England (Ie Boston/Cape Cod, northward) are going to be very close to it and need to watch it. Landfall in Canada still seems the most likely.


Today and Tomorrow may be stressful for those trying to determine what will happen, especially in the case of a large storm with the edge of the cone in your area, but most models are pulling it right quickly. Some, such as the GFS move it further west.

Original Update
Hurricane BIll strengthened into a category four hurricane overnight, with 135MPH winds. It may be a bit stronger than that, but determination will have to wait until another Aircraft recon gets there.

Bill likely will stay strong for the next two days until it begins to weaken.

All indicators are that Bill will stay offshore of the United States, with a small chance that it could affect extreme eastern portions of Massachusetts. Still, the most likely outcome is that it stays far enough out to sea that I think Bermuda should have more concern than that. The Eastern Canadian Provinces have a good chance, though, for a landfall from Bill. Although it should be weaker that it is now at that time, it still will be fairly strong. See the {{CHC}}



In short, New England needs to watch for Changes, Newfoundland in Canada really needs to pay attention, it could still be hurricane strength when it approaches there.

The remnants of Ana are beginning to affect Florida now with extra rain.

Outside of that, the last wave off Africa fell apart, but there is always a chance the next one could form. Outside of that, there is nothing else going on at the moment.

{{radarlink|byx|Key West Florida}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami Florida}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne Florida}}
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Florida}}


{{StormLinks|Bill|03|3|2009|2|Bill}}



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