hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 20 2009 10:46 AM
Re: Bill a Category Four Hurricane, Likely No Threat to US

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I know this question gets posed fairly regularly, but I would appreciate it if someone would remind me of those attributes or conditions which might enable a hurricane to more or less "control its own destiny." Thanks!



I would like to chime in on this one. I have asked myself the same question and my very unscientific conclusion is that as impressive as Bill is his energy pales in comparison to a polar trough, which is what is eroding the ridge. Strong Hurricanes can affect their immediate surroundings but as far as affecting fluid dynamics in an entire Hemisphere, which is what the models work with, I don't think that is possible. In the past decade I have only seen the NHC get more accurate especially with the 3 day cone. Trust the cone young skywalker.

BTW next piece of energy is emerging off of Africa
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg





Just noticed on the CMC model, both sea-level pressure and 850mb vorticity model, has this next wave off of Africa developing and coming close to mimicking the path of Ana. Not disregarding Bill at all, but we will have to keep an eye on the back door as well now.



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