danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 21 2009 07:28 AM
MJO Forecast

THE MJO FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED/DISCUSSED...WITH BOTH CFS AND EWP MODELS SHOWING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (NEGATIVE ANOMALIES) PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF AUGUST. THEY...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON BEST
LOCATION...WITH THE CFS FAVORING THE CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE EWP THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE SETTLED ON A LULL IN ACTIVITY...AS THEY NO LONGER SHOW
TROPICAL SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DOMAIN. THEY TRY TO RELEASE
AVAILABLE ENERGY IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MANY TUTTS AND ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH/ ITCZ...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
VENEZUELA-NORTHERN HALF OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/PMDCA

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
201 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 23 2009 - 12Z THU AUG 27 2009
edited
TROPICS..HURCN BILL MOVES NWD GETTING AS FAR WEST 68W-69W WITH
VERY HEAVY SWELL AND SURF IMPACTING THE EAST COAST WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND AND INTO MARITIME CANADA DAYS
3 AND 4. CHI VELOCITY ANOMALY INDICATES THAT THE ATLANTIC BECOME
RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME
CONSENSUS OF A WAVE MOVING THE BAHAMAS REGION LATE PERIOD BUT THE
EPAC WILL BE UNDER HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODELS GENERATE
AT LEAST 3 SYSTEMS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAME.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/PMDEPD



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