(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 01 2009 06:35 PM
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion

Ed's right. I've been looking at the Visible Imagery over the last few hours and there is a closed LLC right on the western edge of convection. If you draw streamers, it's elongated but there. I'm fine with NHC pulling the trigger on Erika. I can't remember the last time a depression was called looking like this, but they had to have debated about this, but adhering to the strict definition it's at least a depression, so I'm cool with it. I found some Navy forecast wind shear data and the US is closed for tropical weather for at least the next 4 to 5 days. This is a tough call one way or the other. Who knows they could go back out there and not find a center and then what, post Gale force warnings, not Tropical Storm watches; what's the difference to someone who knows the wind is blowing rather stiff?

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