hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 02 2009 03:12 PM
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further

Yes it does look better convection wise, the problem, can still be seen on this loop, the low level circulation is not centered under the convection. They haven't officially split yet, and they may or may not. But until there is a circulation under the upper level convergence, the system will struggle to stay together.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html


The confusing thing to me, as I've stated before, is the Intensity models that are being ignored. I understand the Model tracks are inaccurate right now because of the disorganization of the system, but it would seem that the Intensity models would be able to take the environmental conditions surrounding the storm into account fairly well. And yet, we are to ignore them right now.



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