Wed Sep 02 2009 04:41 PM
Re: Erika Likely to Weaken Further

Multiple centers, spin off circulations, and more with Erika. The setup ahead is a forecaster's nightmare, even if the "most likely" situation is for it to weaken and possibly dissipate, it's by no means certain. The westward motion will win out, and the analogs of Chris in 2006 and Debby in 2000 are the most similar in my memory, but certainly Erika is going to be different.

Again the satellite IR loop looks impressive, while the visible not so much. The westerly shear this year is keeping everything in check.

I'm still thinking it will fall apart before it gets too far West.

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