hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 02 2009 10:37 PM
Re: she is coming back....

So couple things overall. First, the intensity plots still have Erika increasing in strength out to 120 hours, and don't show any decline (that's as far out as the intensity will take it). Actually I take that back, a couple have a dip in the strength (i'm assuming this is Erika passing over some sort of land in the Caribbean) and then it begins to increase again. Second, there are more and more tracks starting to take Erika south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and Cuba. What affect would this have on Erika's chances of surviving? I know there is still a lot of Shear out there to consider.... but from looking at several of the shear models, it seems shear would be lightening a good bit about the time this system would be on the south side of Cuba (assuming it survives that long).

Anyway, long winded question, how does everyone see these situations affecting Erika overall?



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