Thu Sep 03 2009 06:00 PM
Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika?


How much does historiography play into the models? The history of all early Sep trop storms in the vicinity of Erika is a mixed bag in terms of eventual path,
but the track record of those that did becomes canes is impressive. From the graph, Hortense, Ella, Jeanne, Baker, and Enda all became major storms and Gert was a Cat 2. Soooo, if E survives, there is strong potential for intensification.

The dynamical models do not contain any knowledge of historical storms and their evolutions. These include the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, ECMWF, and so on.

The statistical and dynamical-statistical models, however, have varying degrees or forms of climatological information in them. Some are solely based off of climatology (CLIPER) whereas others are statistical regression models based upon observed conditions and what has happened in the past with similar storms.

All in all, though, there's no inherent knowledge of other September storms near that area in most of the reliable guidance. Information about the current atmosphere and ocean play a primary role in forecasting.

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