craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 03 2009 08:02 PM
Re: Martinique radar

She's like the energizer Bunny.
Anyway let me throw these intensity trend estimates out there from CIMSS
Neutral right now to favorable in 24 hrs. They bring intensity back to tropical storm strength before crossing the islands.

06L
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA 18:00UTC 03September2009
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 17:05:35 N
Longitude : 64:04:10 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1009.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 920.5 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 88.5 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 9.9 m/s
Direction : 252.5 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differentia
Forecast Interval : 6hr N 12hr N 18hr N 24hr F


Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0

- Current shear charts for the ATLANTIC BASIN can be found at :
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...zoom=&time=
- Additional information about this product can be found at :
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/misc/winds/info.winds.shr.html
- Contact : Chris Velden (chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu)
CIMSS Internal Code : Basin - atlantic Storm - ERIKA



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