(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 04 2009 11:05 AM
Re: E Caribbean

Sure has been a struggle for Tropical Systems this year! For myself, the onset of El Nino was an impact that I did not foresee as early as the beginning of September. Now looking at the GFS 0600Z run ( 200mb ), I'm playing the loop out to 384 hours in amazement, and trying to recall when I remember seeing as overall hostile upper air conditions, that now prevail.

As for Erika ( or "once" Erika, but maybe almost Erika again, but...), I'm seeing what looks to be the original or old vorticity which rapidly spun to the WSW and into the Caribbean, appear to be developing once again. This feature better enjoy whatever rotation it can muster, as some pretty nasty upper level winds are practically at its doorstep! Meanwhile, nearly all the models want to develop yet another one of Erika's features into yet a newly developing reincarnation of itself, deepen and then ( hopefully ) harmlessly change neighborhoods, where the upper air is just a bit more palpable, while on a more or less NNW course and eventually simply out to sea. This new feature somehow develops just north of the Greater Antilles, and though I could'nt even imagine "where" or how that is supposed to happen......., sure enough after looking at satellite visible loops this a.m., one could nearly allow their imagination to take the remnant alto-cumulus and see some broad weak rotation. Any other year and especially any other system, I'd say NO WAY, yet given the "Many Faces Of Erika" ( movie release coming in '10 ), I'd believe just about anything.

Probably no big deal should this occur, but you gotta believe the folks at NHC, couldn't be happier if this current feature south of Puerto Rico would just die and go away. Could you imagine? "Son of Erika" forms..., or wait a minute? Perhaps "it" is Erika, but then what do you call that thing spinning in the E. Central Caribbean? All mute points, so long as both go away and bother no one. For us and the general public, perhaps the beginning of a premature ending, of an odd hurricane season. However, and not unlike a pesky gnat that just won't go away, for the good folks at NHC, possibly just one more way that Erika would stay with them for weeks longer - if only due to the drudgery of factual debate on historical documentation of which storm was Erika and when it formed, died, was reborn, and on, and on, and on and on.....

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