hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 10 2009 03:01 PM
Re: Western GOM and other areas

Quote:

It will be interesting to see what happens over the NW Gulf and areas inland this weekend. Given proximity to land, any sort of major tropical development seems unlikely, but a short fuse system could develop if any given thunderstorm complex goes upscale. Some sort of hybrid or warm core low pressure could even spin up over land close to the coast, given the large amount of convection that is forecast to occur in a very tropical airmass. In either case, the main impact should be heavy rain. If a well organized surface low develops (tropical or otherwise), there will be a threat of excessive flooding rain in some areas and an elevated risk of tornadoes on the eastern flank of the system.




We may already have a hint at something. It's also possible I'm just reading too much into this satellite, time will tell. Just SSE of Brownsville, TX, approx. 26 N, 97.5 W, there is a burst of convection accompanied by some sort of hint of circulation. I can't tell if it is Upper or Lower level yet, or if it will end up being anything more than just convection.

Rainbow Sat

Water Vapor Sat

Very evident on WV loop.

Also another good look is the Brownsville Radar.

NWS Radar


AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
124 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF DEL RIO WHILE AT THE SFC
LOW PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE STARTING TO WRAP UP NEAR LRD. SFC WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE AT THE SFC ALONG THE COAST WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.



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