Fri Sep 11 2009 06:50 AM
Rain Along North Gulf - While Fred Fizzles in East-Central Atlantic

Update - Tuesday, Sept. 15, 6 PM
Fred's remnants are showing signs of life again in the central Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear has slackened somewhat and convection is consistently re-firing and progressively becoming better organized near the center. The NHC has reinstated track and model guidance on Fred and an upgrade from the current "low" chance of development is likely later this evening. Whether the system redevelops soon or not, it should continue to head generally west to west-northwestward over the course of the coming days.

Elsewhere, two other areas are being watched: a non-tropical area of low pressure on the tail end of a cold front northeast of the Bahamas and a tropical wave located just west of the Cape Verde Islands. Both have been given low chances of development by the NHC and, unlike Fred's remnants, no upgrade of those probabilities seem to be imminent.

Update - Saturday Sept 12, 7PM
Fred has been downgraded to a stationary remnant low near 18N 34W at 12/21Z with winds of 30 knots - no convection so no Depression - a victim of strong south southwesterly windshear. Eventually whatever is left of Fred should move to the west northwest as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds. Another active wave south of the Cape Verde Islands is slowly organizing.

An upper level trough and a weak stationary front have combined to generate large areas of convection along the northern Gulf coast. Although rain is likely, tropical development chances are rather slim, however extratropical development is likely off the north Florida east coast.

Original Post
Hurricane Fred is holding on, after becoming a major hurricane in the far east Atlantic earlier in the week. It was the furthest east recorded that a major formed. It is expected to encounter the shear that has been a hallmark of this year's season in a few days which should basically take it apart. The remnants will likely drift west, and interestingly most models keep it going due west, very weak, however. Ex-Fred, at that time, may have to be watched.

The area in the western Gulf is not likely to develop, but if it does it would likely be a hybrid storm. It will cause much rain for the area. The system in the northeast will cause a lot of rain and general ugliness along the coast there, but it too is likely not to develop because of the hostile conditions.


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