cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 16 2009 04:06 AM
Re: Conditions Not Good for Development

Models have been re-initiated for 07L (Fred).

07L appeared very nearly to be on the way to wrapping itself up in deep convection late last night, but as has often been the case these past 48 hours or so, this attempt was once again deflected to the north and northeast. Fred currently appears as one might expect a highly-sheared former major hurricane that still retains a potent surface circulation to appear. Scatterometer picked up some arguably legit 40+ knot vectors Tuesday, and a fairly tight LLC still exists within the center of the stripped cyclone.

Invest Fred may very well have a real chance of regaining some of its former glory, but any path to such an upgrade still seems slow, as the ULL to Fred's WSW continues to inject just a ton of dry air into the system, while also shoving each and every blowup of deep convection to the north, south, and east. It almost seems as if Fred may have a better shot of reorganizing into a hybrid cyclone, until or unless the ULL appreciably fills. Truly, the number of ways Fred can earn his name again are not limited, but each avenue remains fraught with difficulty. Nonetheless, the weekend might become a lot more interesting given Invest Fred's most likely future track and several potential opportunities for further organization.



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