2PM EDT Update 6 October 2009
Ex Grace has moved south of Ireland as is quickly approaching the coast of Wales in the United Kingdom.
91L has struggled to develop, but continues. Chances of development for that remain around 30%
An upper level low well west of Portugal is rapidly acquiring tropical characteristics with well defined banding and an eye or eye-like feature. The cyclone was located near 40.5N 21.5W at 05/00Z - moving to the northeast at about 25 knots. At 05/01Z the eye-like feature was not as well defined. Although southerly windshear is increasing, since this is a hybrid system it should be able to maintain its tropical identity for a short period of time with probable movement to the north northeast and northeast. No model data is currently available on this system, however, NHC advisories may be initiated at 05/03Z.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook was issued by NHC for this system:
"SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW NORTHEAST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED
LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS."
ADDED: System was upgraded to Tropical Storm Grace at 05/0300Z with winds of 65mph and pressure at 990mb moving northeast at 25mph.
As for 91L, east of the Caribbean islands, the current conditions in the area suggest it will continue moving more westward. Right now it has a 30% of development, and is hard to say if it will ever develop. If it does it will be important to watch. Even if it does develop it may weaken later. The October set up is much different than August, and if anything does come of it, it will have to be watched.
Note: Skeetobite graphic currently is an older 91L and not the current.