Mon Nov 09 2009 02:06 PM
Re: Ida's Inner Core Regeneration ??

Although the cloud tops are warming somewhat from previously, the MCC over the LCC is managing to persist in the face of the shear. Yes, these storms are exhibiting signs of the shear too, but IMHO, does not appear to be 'prohibitive', thus allowing the storms to attain 'super size' proportions and devolop very deeply as well, with rather substantial very cold cloud tops still.

I think the 1:00 EST advisory shows this new burst. Pressure has fallen to 992mb, below the 993mb of the 7:00am advisory. Not sure how much longer this burst will maintain, though.

The fact that they decided to give the nod to the very impressive outburst over the LLC and actually drop the central pressure by 1mb I think says a lot. Maybe I'm reading too much into it though.

When you say "... how much longer this burst will maintain", I assume you're referring to the entire event of this MCC forming over the LLC. As long as the storms are quickly replaced by new deep convection and the MCC feature persists, then it's likely Ida will at least maintain her current intensity for a while longer, instead of quickly spinning down, which would be the case were her LLC still be totally exposed for all this time.

Ida seems to be "bursting." As soon as one burst of convection shears off, another forms near the center.

Good observations, but I think the term you're looking for here is "Cycling". Cycling of convection over a LLC occurs when new thunderstorms immediately pop up when previous storms are still in the process of dissapating. I prefer to reserve the word 'bursting' for individual supercells that develop explosively, attain great heights all the way to the stratosphere very quickly with convective turrent penetrations blasting into the stratophere, in some cases for hundreds or even a few thousand feet above the tropopause.

Yes, Ida's current display of this MCC over the center fits the bill perfectly for 'Cycling Convection', with each of the cells 'bursting' into existance and blasting all the way into the lower stratosphere.

Also, quite interestingly, you can now see on the Long-Range Doppler Radar from Mobile, the attempted formation of an eyewall structure. The eye is most certainly there, but only half the eyewall. And the intense, cycling convection we've been noticing on animated satellite imagery is that arc of intense reflectivities showing up in the NW semicircle on the radar.

It's trying to wrap around the clear center, but appears to be having a tough time in doing so, presumably because of the persistant shear. If the shear were not present, I think Ida would be making landfall as a solid Cat 2 or possibly a Cat 3 Hurricane. Thank goodness for the blessed shear! To the rescue once again!

Long Range Animated Doppler Radar Loop from Mobile


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