vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Wed Nov 11 2009 01:00 AM
Re: Transition to extratropical?

Even though Ida is in the history books as far as being a tropical system, parts of the East Coast are still in for a rough go of it the next few days. The extratropical remains of Ida are moving east across the Florida panhandle. An old cold front is dropping into the Southeast. Then to the east you've got 98L that some models project will get absorbed into this whole mess. The result will be a sub-1000 mb low off the SE coast. Then you've got a 1030+ mb high sliding across the Great Lakes. When this high moves east to New York State the gradient is really going to tighten up from Cape Hatteras up to the Delmarva. With this setup expected to change only very slowly, it looks like we are setting up for at least a moderate if not major long duration coastal flooding event starting later tomorrow and possibly lasting into the weekend. On top of all that some areas may see up to 7 inches of rain.

From the Wakefield VA forecast discussion:

MODELS NOW COMING TOGETHER ON WHAT CUD END UP AS A SGNFCNT MARINE
EVENT ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN. VERY CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK. UPSHOT WILL BE FOR A PROLONGED PRD OF NORTHEAST
(ONSHORE WNDS) SUSTAINED CLOSED TO GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
TO STORM FORCE BEGINNING LATE WED AND LASTING THRU LATE FRI.

WILL CONT TO CAP THE SEAS AT 15 FT FOR NOW...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QSTN
TO SEAS SEAS AOA 20 FT WHEN ALL SAID AND DONE.



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