Thu Sep 08 2016 09:16 PM
Invest 93L May Be Declared Julia Today. Atlantic Getting Busier Again.

Update - Tuesday, 13 September, 2:30PM
93L has been straddling the line of being a classifiable system today, and NHC has just bumped up the odds of a tropical storm declaration to 40% today. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist, either way as the incipient tropical cyclone continues tracking north or north-northwest. The next name on the list is Julia.

Elsewhere, the remnants of 92L are in the northern central Gulf of Mexico, with showers and a few storms pushing into the deep south. Ian remains well out to sea, and 95L nearing the Cabo Verde islands may become a depression by Friday.


Update - Tuesday, 13 September, 9:30AM EDST
Invest 93L moved inland near Vero Beach at 13/07Z and the center of the weak tropical system passed over the northwest Melbourne area in east central Florida at 13/11Z. Most of the rainsqualls are currently offshore but the system will move northwest to north northwest into the Florida Peninsula over the next 24 hours. From the Melbourne NWS Area Forecast Discussion:

"...Weak tropical low to bring heavy rainfall in numerous showers and
squalls with isolated storms...

.Update...Early morning updates to increase winds from northern
Brevard to Volusia county along the coast with breezy conditions
through the day. Also, the small craft advisory was expanded to the
Brevard/Volusia near shore waters with seas to 7 feet at Buoy 41113
4 nautical miles northeast of the entrance to Port Canaveral. Seas
were increased to 6 to 8 feet offshore. Minimum pressure recorded
at Melbourne airport was 29.84 inches at 537 am this morning with
low pressure passage near Melbourne."


10:30AM EDT Update 12 September 2016
Invest 94L is now Tropical Storm Ian, the ninth named tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Ian is embattled with shear, and only forecast to remain a tropical storm while spinning north out at sea.

92L to the left of it, 93L to the right, Florida is stuck in the middle between these two.

Low odds of development, but owing to their tenacity and closeness, continue to be watched.


12:30PM EDT Update 9 September 2016
In the Straits of Florida, an area low pressure associated with formerly-tagged Invest 92L continues tracking towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. This tropical low is accompanied by a small area of winds to about 25MPH and a pocket of very heavy rain. More on this feature in the 92L Forecast Lounge

Invest 93L is struggling through shear today, but could soon bring blustery showers to Puerto Rico. Large and sprawling 94L is still trying to organize well east of the Lesser Antilles.

6:00AM EDT Update 9 September 2016
The wave formerly being tracked as Invest 92L is now entering the Straits of Florida from the east, and has been resilient. The next 12-48 hours could see environmental conditions turn somewhat favorable for some development should the wave be entering or be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Invest 93L is now passing along just north of the Greater Antilles, and could bring PR and Hispaniola blustery showers this weekend. Like 92L above, it too could find itself nestled in a region of low to very low shear this weekend while passing close to these islands, and bears closer watching, despite still very low odds given officially at this time.

Invest 94L now looks like a mid-size gyre, with cyclonic motion clearly evident throughout its expanse on satellite, but not yet well organized at the surface per wind data. The baseline forecast calls for slow development, but quick enough that it never as much as brushes the Antilles before hooking out to sea. Indications of anything slower could mean the Antilles may want to watch.


There are two new waves in the Atlantic this week, 93L and 94L, 94L is in the far east Atlantic and most likely to stay out to sea.

93L is near the leewards and may have a chance to affect the US coast or Florida by the middle of next week.




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