(Storm Tracker)
Fri Oct 21 2011 11:17 AM
96L - Our next Storm Threat?

Well, 96L has been tagged as an "invest" and presently lies in the far S.W. Caribbean. Providing that its near term motion does not take it into Central America, the upper air conditions appear to be far more conducive for development, as compared to this weeks earlier disturbance that came out of the Caribbean. It is too early to say, however this system has a real potential to develop and history certainly has proven that numerous hurricanes have intensified fairly quickly and then moved Northward to eventually pose a threat to Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.

Another front is scheduled to make its way southward next week, and once again timing could well prove to be the factor as too how big a threat 96L could pose. Right now, the latest GFS indicates the next cold front to sweep through S. Florida sometime late Thursday night or Fri. a.m. For now, the quicker the development, the greater the threat of a Northward motion. I have a feeling that by the time recon gets down there tomorrow, 96L may well be a borderline depression.

(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2011 02:00 PM
Re: 96L - Our next Storm Threat?

After a bit of greater review of satellite this early afternoon, along with the 12 GFS upper level winds, it would appear that perhaps a small tight "naked swirl" in the vicinity of the appearant center of 96L is now moving northward. This motion and location presently places it under direct flow of very marginal north winds from a small anticyclone over the far N.W. Caribbean. Present motion continued ( and assuming that this feature is nothing other than a small vort eddy ), it would apper that the upper level conditions would be forecast to improve by later tonight and into Sunday.

All that said, even if 96L were to develop into a tropcal depression or storm, the forecast upper level winds for any system approaching the latitude W. Cuba and all points north, are only forecast to get stronger. That being the case, it would be highly unlikely for a storm to survive the anticipated 30-50 knot upper level winds. Significant development would then seem unlikely unless it were to start developing tomorrow, but then remain practically stationary for a period of time and this too would seem unlikely in the face of an approaching front mid week.

Seems that the only realistic risk ( though I think unlikely ), would be for 96L to start to organize tonight / tomorrow under somewhat improved upper air conditions, and then intensify while remaining practically stationary for a couple days, and then finally start a slow east motion towads Jamaica, ahead and in advance of next week's approching front.

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