Tue Aug 26 2014 01:22 PM
Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L

An area of showers and thunderstorms currently stretched NW-SE across the Gulf of Mexico is associated with a "back door" cold front that pushed out over the open waters on Monday.

These showers and storms have started to organize a bit today, and there is a chance of further development, provided the area of low pressure remains over water.

Favoring chances for development, the Gulf of Mexico is currently running above its already toasty climatological norms, and so there is certainly sufficient oceanic heat energy for fuel. Additionally, regional barometric pressure is already somewhat low. Finally, shear over the disturbance itself is not at all prohibitive, with even an upper level high centered across the Gulf.

Detractors include some nearby moderate shear, abundant dry air, and proximity to land.

This is where to put our mid to long range thoughts on this system's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Title changed to reflect addition of Invest tag (98L)

(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 27 2014 10:03 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L

Looking at this evening's sat loops, the apparent CoC is just East of Brownsville, TX with no significant convection. Appears to be drifting WSW, so I say nothing is developing with this. The area in the Eastern Caribbean? Another "meh." The wave coming off the African coast? Wait and see on that. I'm not expecting much, though.

(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 28 2014 06:58 AM
Re: Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L

Looks like the CoC may not have moved that much with 98L last night, with a plume of convection firing up on the Eastern edge of the system this morning.

Thu Aug 28 2014 03:30 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L

As of 2PM CDT Aug 28, the radar indicated center of Invest 98L was tracking across South Padre Island, just off the coast of extreme south Texas, in the vicinity of 26.5N 97.2W.

While it appears that the low will not have enough time over water to become sufficiently organized for classification as a depression, it will still bring rounds of squally weather to the region over the next few days with some of it even extending well inland, as rotation around the low is sending copious Gulf of Mexico moisture northwestward.

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