cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 29 2018 03:00 PM
Florence Lounge


Aug 29 2018 2000z

A vigorous wave about to exit westernmost Africa has been showing indications of developing a well-defined area of surface low pressure even prior to hitting the far eastern Atlantic ocean, and increasingly models are locking on to this feature for near-term development. The wave is likely to be assigned an Invest tag by Friday, and odds it may go straight to numbered Tropical Cyclone by Friday night.

Unanimously now, our better global models indicate that this wave may not only become a numbered TC shortly upon hitting the warm waters near the Cabo Verde Islands, but development prior to or while more or less directly over the islands themselves is possible, and thus interests in the Cabo Verdes this weekend and into early next week may want to pay especially close attention.

After passage near or over the islands, models generally recurve this one out to sea - some ramping it up to our first Major of 2018.


Title updated to SIX. Title updated to Florence. Florence is now a Hurricane - Ciel


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 30 2018 05:56 AM
Re: Strong W Africa Wave

The vigorous tropical wave and associated broad area of low pressure has entered the far eastern Atlantic and is now being tracked as an Invest, 90L, and the title has been updated accordingly.

Invest 90L is very likely to become a tropical cyclone prior to passing west of the Cabo Verde islands, and Tropical Storm conditions are possible. Watches and Warnings may soon be issued even if a TD has not yet formed, given the close proximity to land as a Potential Tropical Cyclone. PTC explained well on Weather.com: What is a Potential Tropical Cyclone?

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands may want to begin taking weather ready precautions for a blustery and very wet storm, regardless of classification or not.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 01 2018 05:28 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

0Z ECMWF just got even more bullish basin-wide, and also remains the western outlier for both Florence, bringing her very close to the U.S. by Day 10, and what is now just the wave we are keeping an eye on for potential development in the GOM next week. That said, the EURO is a solid model, so this run (and others before) are noteworthy.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 01 2018 08:23 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

The models for florence, with the exception of the Euro are still showing out to sea. Euro does bring up the chances for a US or Bermuda landfall,.so here's a system to watch for model trends to see if it continues to trend west, or back out to sea over the next several days. Right now the models appear to be trending away from sure bet recurvature. September will be vastly different from last month, that's for sure.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 01 2018 09:43 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

12 Z Early guidence shifted fairly significantly to the west, so the trend to the west continues today.



ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 01 2018 10:07 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

Hi Mike,
If it does indeed move more west,what impact if any would that have on strengthening?


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 01 2018 02:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

This setup would require it to stay weaker to get further west, it looks like the euro went back toward the recurve idea this afternoon, so that may have been a fluke. However, it is getting dangerously close to Bermuda with this run.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 02 2018 07:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

12z EURO today back to building in High pressure to Florence's north (and potentially other waves or storms behind her), keeping the track locked underneath. A long way out, but if this starts to verify, the eastern seaboard would definitely be at increasing risk at around 10 days out (Sep 12).



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 03 2018 07:38 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

Models for Florence this morning, and west trend continues. This would mean those along the east coast and Bermuda will want to watch this next week if these trends continue.

0Z Euro shows a pretty significant ridge forming as the system moves close the the US, on a direct approach to NC when the run ends.

6Z GFS shows it recurving just east of Bermuda and staying out to sea (missing Canada also), which is a shift back east from yesterday evening's run.

0z Canadian has cat 2 landfall near Morehead City, NC on late Wednesday Sept 12th.

10 day Euro Ensembles show a pretty good spread along the southeast to mid Atlantic approach. Still lots of time to watch this system.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 03 2018 03:16 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

12Z Model runs on Florence.

12Z GFS: (as FV3 GFS) recurves out to sea well before Bermuda.

12Z Euro: Even further southwest than 0z, approaching somewhere between Cape Canaveral and Savannah, GA in 10 days., two other systems in the Atlantic as well one over the NE Caribbean, and another east of the Lesser Antilles.

12Z Canadian Cape Cod landfall, after getting very close to NC.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 03 2018 03:50 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

12Z Euro Ensembles shifted mostly east with most of them out to sea now, not as many showing land, opposite of what the euro operational shows.



That's a good counter to the earlier trend.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 03 2018 09:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

18Z GFS Shifted a bit left, stalls a bit east of Bermuda, but still goes out to sea.

18Z GFS FV3 is something else, gets very close to Bermuda on Sep 15th, then dives southwest to the northern Bahamas on sept 17th, then Due north and ends just south of coastal NC.

These model runs just means Florence is not set in stone for a recurve, and must be watched, however out to sea still remains the most likely scenario withi it.


IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 04 2018 02:12 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

The Atlantic high pressure ridge strength or weakness, position and persistence in 5-7 days will be critical to Florence's unlikely (but still possible) delayed re-curvature next week. Any thoughts appreciated...

IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 04 2018 06:12 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
320 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...Some pretty large differences show up in the model guidance W/R/T synoptic pattern over the CONUS and western Atlantic for early next week. The ECM shows more significant dampening out of the mid-upper trough, whilst strengthening the eastern CONUS/western Atlantic ridge to a much greater extent through the period. On the other hand, the GFS keeps more of a weakness over the mid Atlantic and SE CONUS during this period.
At the surface, this results in a stronger ECM western Atlantic ridge and freshening easterlies, while the GFS solution shows a weak`bubble` ridge over/offshore north and central Florida. As of late, the pattern has favored strong deep layer ridging to the north, and see no reason why this wouldn`t return once again.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 05 2018 04:57 AM
Re: HURRICANE FLORENCE

0z run of GFS ensembles showing 90% recurving ..
However, both the operational and several members - even though recurving, sideswipe a strong Trop Storm/Hur. (even Major) just offshore



cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 05 2018 05:00 AM
Re: HURRICANE FLORENCE

Half of the 0z Sep 5 runs of the Euro (including the operational) not so sanguine



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 05 2018 07:04 AM
Re: HURRICANE FLORENCE

Overnight runs for Florence have shown a trend back to the west with a large threat to somewhere along the US East coast so it's one to watch closely over the next week or two.

The 6Z GFS has a SE Mass/Martha's Vineyard, Cape Cod landfall from the south.
06Z F3 keeps it recurving well out to sea starting Monday.
0Z Euro, landfalling in SC major hurricane on the evening of Thursday sep 13th. (Florence goes to Florence, SC?)
0z CMC Recurves it between Berumda and the US, no landfall.
0Z UKMet keeps it straight west most of its run, leading the pack on the west idea.

Euro ensembles have a fair number into the US, however the current movement is more along the northern side.



Florence will need to be watched, but still too early to say if it will impact the US or not.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 05 2018 12:23 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Florence, now much stronger than forecast (a still-intensifying Major as of this reply), is thus unsurprisingly tracking along the farthest right/north of this morning's ECMWF ensembles. Possible significant changes coming in the next run.




Joeyfl
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 05 2018 01:41 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Still several days to watch this incrediable hurricane but I would be watching this very closely on eastern seaboard from Florida to Maine. Models have not handled it well so far with a windshield wiper effect past several model runs, ukmet has been rather consistent on westward bend. Time will tell but I would say odds have increased some for eastern U.S

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 05 2018 02:21 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

12z ECMWF coming in and has initialized Florence way, way too weak. Garbage in. Garbage out.

I will be paying more attention to the better initialized models from 12z to 18z, and wait for the 06 0z runs of the Euro and its members to buy in more to what they're selling.

12z GFS initialized much better (although still much too weak - but hey, that's RI for you). Sends Florence almost into the east coast as a very solid Cat 3/4, then recurves while still offshore


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 06 2018 06:09 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

Florence model roundup. In short, extremely large spread.

0z GFS Gets very close if not over Bermuda on Tuesday, moves closer to the US, but no landfall, it meanders well east of cape cod for a few days then moves quickly over Newfoundland on Sept 19th.

6Z GFS takes a cat 3/4 over Bermuda

FV3 GFS stays south of Bermuda and NO landfall.

0z CMC Moves west, just north of Bermuda on Wednesday, cat 2/3 landfall near Wilmington , NC Midday Thursday (13th), moves inland near Raleigh and stalls out.generally over that area and points east through Sunday.

0z Euro is north of Bermuda, then toward Wilmington, but cuts north over the Outer banks as a cat 3/4 and sounds then moves up the Chesapeake Bay, exits over Delaware, then slowly out to sea.

0z UKMET basically straight west along 25N, at the end of the run it's around 25N north of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Ensembles


92L's eventual track also has a lot of dependencies on what Florence does, so avoiding that one for now.


Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 06 2018 06:36 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

This is, without a doubt, the biggest spread I've seen.

Miami is in play, Cape Canaveral, Jaxsonville, a huge cluster between Savanah and the outer banks, Virginia, Delaware - Maine, Bermuda, out to sea, anti-cyclonic loops hinting at a delayed forcast. Crazy pills!


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 06 2018 04:18 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

12z Model summary:

12Z GFS, quite nuts, misses bermuda to the south, Cat 2 landfall Eastern Long Island late on Sep 14th. goes straight south to almost Georgia's latitude offshore, then back north and landfalls in Newfoundland on Sep 21st. This seems unrealistic based on the ridge setup.

12z FV3 GFS goes very near or over Bermuda on Tuesday, then out to sea.

12Z CMC, late Thursday night (13th) landfall near Wilmington, NC then stalls out inland over E. North Carolina through Sunday.

12Z Euro landfall in the NC outer Banks on Thursday (sep 13th). Hangs just offshore of Delmarva through the end of the run on Sunday.

12Z UKMet shifted more north, ends just east of the GA/FL line offshore. (Just south of the Euro track) UK Ensembles are more spread from S. Florida to the Outer Banks.

Euro Ensembles


UKMet Ensembles:


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 07 2018 12:34 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

Partial 0z update. Left shifts.

0z GFS Shifts slightly west/south, no landfall as of 192 hours out, but it does get somewhat close to NC before beginning a loop.

0z CMC landfall Friday morning (14th) as a cat 2/3 hurricane near Morehead City, NC, and sits and spins right over or near the coastline through Monday in the same general area.

0z UK Met shifts back south, ending at 29.6N 75W (See sfwmd plot on main page)

0z German Icon landfall Thursday afternoon Cat 3 near Morehead City, NC then rides coastline just inland up to New Jersey by Friday night.



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 07 2018 06:14 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

0z Euro run has shifted left again, this time with landfall as a cat 3/4 hurricane near Myrtle Beach, SC Thursday afternoon. Ensemble spread is still large.

Euro Ensembles:



UKMET Ensembles:



06z GFS run going now: It also shifted left.and has a Cape Hatteras landfall Thursday morning as a cat 3/4, then up the Chesapeake bay to Washington, DC/Baltimore, then turns back out over New York City into the Atlantic by Saturday morning.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 07 2018 12:29 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Quick summary.

12Z GFS landfalls near Morehead City, NC Thursday morning.
12Z CMC landfall, Savannah, GA Saturday the 15th.

12Z Ukment shifts south again, now pointing toward Georgia.
12Z Euro, landfall near Charleston, SC late Thursday night cat 3/4.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 07 2018 04:33 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

The possible ways Florence can find an escape hatch out to sea are rapidly dwindling in number. Of what's left, newly tagged Invest 94L located between N.C. and Bermuda might have the best chance. If this can organize and deepen, it could erode enough of the developing anomalous blocking high that Florence will otherwise run up against.

Models are just now starting to digest the new info on 94L, and incorporate this into their runs. It may be very informative to see what happens with that disturbance. We will be watching it closely with updates in the (Invest 94L Lounge)


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 07 2018 09:12 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

18z GFS Landfall Midday Thursday Morehead City, NC Cat 3/4
18Z FV3 GFS Landfall Thursday Night Morehead City, NC Cat 2/3

18Z HWRF, ends with a cat 5 system see below:



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 08 2018 12:17 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

0Z GFS, Slower, similar to earlier track, very strong ridging, Landfall near Morehead City, NC cat 4 overnight Thursday-Friday. landfall is slightly south of the earlier 18z run. Exits back into the Atlantic off Norfolk Saturday morning.
0Z CMC landfall near Brunswick, GA (Epic Ridging) cat 2/3 Friday night. South of the earlier landfall point at 12z.
0z Icon slips along Cape Hatteras, then stays out to sea (shift east from earlier)
0z UkMet shifts a bit west from earlier, ends run east of Savannah in the Atlantic nearing Charleston, SC as a Category 4 hurricane.



dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 08 2018 12:51 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

This slight southerly and westerly trends in the models are disconcerting. Starting to feel like we need to pay attention to this storm. Kinda reminds me of Jeanne or Francis during that season. Especially with a strengthening ridge. And it is slowly losing latitude. Hope it stays away from Florida and the rest of the East coast of US. Because its looking like its going to be a monster regardless.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 08 2018 08:00 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

06Z And Euro Model info

6Z GFS Run scrapes Hatteras Friday morning then loops the storm just offshore until the Following tuesday and out to sea. Shift right from earlier.

0Z FV3 GFS, Charleston Landfall Late Thursday/Early Friday, cat2/3, exits into the Atlatnic near the Outer Banks, second landfall Jacksonville cat 1, Night of Sep 19th. Moves toward the big bend, exits near Jacksonville on the 21st, Cat 2 Scrape on Hatteras on the 23rd, then out to sea.

6Z FV3 GFS Shifts north to a Wilmington, NC landfall Friday morning. meanders to the outer banks, then loops back for a second Wilmington scrape along the NC coast before heading out to sea.

0z Euro hasn't really changed from the prior run except the storm is a bit stronger, landfall late Thursday/Early Friday Cat 3/4 north of Charleston, SC, then inland toward Charlotte, up through the Mountains into Tennessee and Kentuck by Saturday.

Euro Ensembles: Spread still crazy from https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2018090312-240-florence.html




UK Ensembles: Another left shift from https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?reset=1 (click far right button on the 3rd row-- ukmo)



6z HWRF:




MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 08 2018 09:51 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

Early 12z runs shifted west (again, but only so slightly, some of the bamm models shifted right). It'll show up on the sfwmd image on the front page soon.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 08 2018 12:27 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

12Z Runs generally right (north) shift

12Z GFS, Stalls offshore of the Outer Banks as a cat 5 through next Saturday. but loops around.offshore that general area until Tuesday then shoots northeast for landfall in Newfoundland in Canada still quite strong.

12z CMC Landfall Cat 3 just south of Myrtle Beach, SC Friday morning A Shift north from earlier

12z German Icon keeps it well east of NC,

12z UKMET has shifted north toward just offshore Myrtle Beach

12Z HRWF shifts south,


Bev
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 08 2018 01:35 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

What effect, if any, do you think 94L might have on Florence?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 08 2018 02:05 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

None really, other than adding moisture to the system.

Joeyfl
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 08 2018 02:08 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Bev 94l will have little to no impact on florence or Florence's future. It would have to get quite strong for that to happen and at this point that's not going to happen as 94l is really being pulled and stretched to the east and west not a set up for development. Unfortunately florence now looks to have direct impact on southeastern us. Still hard to say anyone from central florida to north Carolina is at play it's short term movement coc have big implications on where she goes as bride should keep this on a west to wnw track until landfall.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 08 2018 02:29 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

12Z Euro shifts north to a Wilmngton, NC Landfall late Thursday night/early Friday morning. cat 3. slides up to the NC/VA border then loops back west toward Charlotte, iincredible rain for Central/E north Carolina through Tuesday.

One striking thing about the ensembles, they diverge quickly, usually the spread is in the later days, but these recent runs it diverges much sooner.

Almost everything shifted right today, except notably the HWRF

12Z FV3 GFS is wild though, Cat 3 landfall near Wilmington, NC Early Friday Morning, then drifts into the sounds along the Outer banks through Saturday then back southwest over Wilmington Sunday Afternoon, then exits to the Atlantic restrengthens back to Cat 3, loops around for another landfall at Wilmington that Wednesday.then exits by the Chesapeake Bay and out to sea.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 08 2018 03:28 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

One-third of the 0z EURO and virtually 95% of the 12z GFS ensembles initialized Florence much too weak.

In the images below, you can get an idea of what clusters are favored based on their color. Blue is an extremely weak tropical storm at best, green a low-end tropical storm, etc. At this point today the ensembles runs initialized Florence generally in the 30-40 KT range. In reality, she is already in the 50-60 KT range, and within striking distance of becoming a hurricane again.

I would expect a continued rightward shift (and of an initially stronger TC - probably a HUR if they get it right this time) in the upcoming 09 0z runs.

Images cr. Weathernerds.org (I have penned up on top of their base maps so you can see better all that I am referring to).




Here's a close-up of the ECMWF members


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 08 2018 05:30 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Very sage tweet from former NHC director Dr. Rick Knabb (now lead hurricane specialist at TWC)
Quote:







Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 08 2018 07:02 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Any of us that live within an extended version of the remotely possible cone are already watching every NHS update and definitely every FlHurricane.com update.

Gulfport, Florida here...


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 09 2018 12:03 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

All the dropsondes from around Florence this afternoon made it into the 0z GFS - should definitely help with the output. We can put more weight in many of the models' runs (not just GFS) starting now than we did even just a few hours ago.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 09 2018 01:45 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

Some specifics of the 0z GFS run look almost impossible. Takes Florence just offshore of the OBX and sits and basically spins as a Cat 4/5 for 120+/- hours (over 4 days) before finally decidedly pulling away out to sea. My main issue with this run is this: Sitting in place for so long while a hurricane, let alone a high-end Major, is likely to result in quite a bit of ocean upwelling underneath the cyclone, lowering its fuel supply.

Other than that, the risk of Florence stalling out over or very near the OBX for several days on end is itself very plausible, and a scenario also supported by other models, like the UKMET. This could result in epic flooding, storm surge in surge-prone areas and an onslaught of sustained wind damage, for sure without having to be a never-ending Cat 5.



cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 09 2018 03:43 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

0z ECMWF with stronger ridging than GFS, much less intense Florence (though STILL Major - see second image below), and inland into N.C. with subsequent collapsing of steering currents (forecast by essentially ALL the models). The rain totals that follow are breathtaking for both their areal coverage and accumulation (see below, cr. Weather.us)



Peak gusts into landfall per 09 0z ECMWF


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 09 2018 12:19 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

12Z Runs (so far)

12Z GFS Starting late Thursday/Friday morning stalls Florence over or near Cape Hatteras for several days (Cat 4) through at least Saturday.

12Z CMC also stalls Florence over or near Cape Hatteras for several days (Cat 4) through Saturday. then it glides southwest toward landfall @ Jacksonville, NC. next MONDAY morning (Cat 2/3)

12Z German Icon, Approaches the OBX Friday morning, no landfall, then sends it back SOUTH

UKMet 12z now shows Jacksonville, NC landfall. Thursday night.as a solid category 4 hurricane.

12Z GFS V3- Wilmington, NC Landfall cat 2/3 Friday morning

12Z Euro -- Wilmington, NC Landfall cat 3/4 Thursday night/early friday AM, then stalls out near Boone, NC

12Z NavGem - Wilmington, NC Landfall Cat 3 Saturday morning



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 09 2018 03:54 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Euro ensemble spread



UKMet Ensembles 12Z Sep 9:



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 09 2018 06:52 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

18Z Models:

18Z GFS, Landfall near Morehead City, NC cat 4 hurricane on Friday morning, hangs over that general area until Monday then gets very close to Bermuda on the 21st, the runs over Newfoundland on the 24th still with hurricane force winds.

18Z FV3 GFS Landfall Wilmington, NC Cat 4 hurricane Thursday night.

18Z German icon ,recurves before Outer Banks

18Z HWRF, Gets to Cat 5 but weakens back to 4 before landfalling in Wilmington, NC late Thursday night.


18Z GFS Ensembles






RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 10 2018 02:19 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

I think folks should be aware that this storm has the potential to be just as deadly 200 miles inland as on the coast between the very high wind gusts, significant flooding, and limited run tornadoes. Now is the time to plan and prepare!

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 10 2018 06:23 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

0z Model Runs: Mixed shifts, mean is around Wilmington still, Euro ensembles shifted left, UK shifted right. GFS on the right. Nearly all hit land.

0Z GFS Cat 4 landfall near Morehead City, NC late Thursday night or very Early Friday morning, then excessive flooding rain as it slowly drifts westward across NC, through Monday at least.

12Z Eruo shifts a bit south, Landfall cat 4 near NC/SC border Thursday night, then moves inland to the mountains of NC/TN through Sunday night, then southeast into South Carolina Monday, back into the Altantic SE of Charleston by Tuesday (18th), and starts to restrengthen offshore by Wednesday (19th) ends Thursday (20th) Due east of St. Augustine, FL and south of Morehead City, NC in the Atlantic.

0Z UKmet takes the storm into just south of Cape Hatteras Thursday night and inside the outer banks into southeast Virginia.

0Z F3 GFS Landfall near Oak Island, NC Cat 3 Thursday night, moves inland to about High Point, NC by Saturday afternoon, then loops and back out to sea near Wilmington by Monday night, then keeps it out to sea.

0Z CMC Approaches Wilmington, NC Thursday night stalls just offshore as a cat 3 (within 20-50 miles) the eventually makes landfall as a cat 2 at Wilmington on Monday. Then creeps toward Raleigh and Virginia until Wednesday.

0z HWRF has a cat 3/4 landfall near Wilmington, NC Thursday night or very early Friday Morning. Then makes it toward Central NC where the run ends on Saturday.

0Z HMON Has landfall Friday morning near Jacksonville, NC as a cat 3/4 hurricane. The meanders just inland until Saturday when the run ends.

0Z German Icon has a Cape Hatteras landfall Friday morning as a cat 3/4 hurricane. Then meanders around in the sounds through Sunday night.then it slides into West Virginia from there.

Euro Ensembles:


UK:



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 10 2018 06:30 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

6Z models (so far)

6z GFS Landfall near Morehead City, NC Late Thursday/Friday morning Cat 4 (nearly cat 5). Meanders just inland from there and loops inland Through Tuesday where it exits just north of Nags Head then starts to restrengthen offshore.

6z HMON Landfall just north of Morehead City, NC as a cat 3 early Friday morning.

6z HWRF shifts left to just north of Myrtle Beach, SC cat 3/4 landfall Thursday night.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 10 2018 02:08 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

I won't be able to do a model update this afternoon, but will return for later tonight. Cat 4 already.... wow.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 11 2018 04:36 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

0z EPS (ECMWF ensembles) shifted toward South Carolina, possibly in response to a still more pronounced ridge in the southeast, which is itself in response to a more robust 95L. (Something similar occurred with hurricanes Katia and Irma last year. (Image below)



Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 11 2018 02:32 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

looks like HWRF, HMON, and GFS 12Z are all hitting near Wilmington NC on Thursday afternoon/Evening. 100 to 110kts (with GFS coming in at 90kts). around lanfdall.

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 11 2018 02:41 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Quick observation and sorta question, it looks like Florence took a bit of drier air into the system, it doesn't appear to have disrupted the eye wall, but I wonder if it could help explain disruptions to intensification, if, in fact I am not seeing things?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 11 2018 03:02 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

It'll slow down strengthening probably, but the big story today is how large the storm is growing (size wise).

Any way 12z modes..

12Z Euro.....................
Ok this one is alarming, gets close to Cape fear cat 3/4 stalls just offshore Friday morning then slowly moves southwest raking the coast all the way to about Hilton Head, SC. Then inland Sunday morning cat 2/3 moves to Atlanta still Strong TS or cat 1 strength. Yikes

12Z GFS Landfall Late THursday night near Cape Fear cat 3/4 hurricane drifts west toward the mountains through Sunday.

12Z CMC Landfall Cat 3 near Morehead City Nc Friday morning, drifts around eastern north Caroilna until Sunday morning.

12z UKMET landfall near Jacksonville, NC

I'll stop here for now.

12Z Euro Track



12z Euro Ensembles (so far):



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 11 2018 07:02 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

18Z GFS Eyewall brush of Wilmgton NC of a slow moving Cat 4 hurricane by Friday afternoon moves southwest, raking the coastline all the way to Charleston where it finally makes landfall late Sunday night as a cat 3 hurricane moves inland, by Charlotte, NC Monday night, then remains loop back off Wilmington, NC slowly reforms then loops back and hits Jacksonville, FL as a Cat 1 hurricane on the 24th. then back out to sea and goes to the Northeastern Bahamas where the run ends.

18Z FV3 GFS Landfall Wilmington, NC late Friday morning, then slides south offshore.

18z HWRF Cat 4 landfall near SC/NC Border early Friday morning, then inland

18z HMON Cat 3/4 landflal Wilmington, NC early Friday morning, then drifts inland.


Joeyfl
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 11 2018 07:53 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Don't like the trends with GFS showing a really bad scenario and little more in line with euro. Folks from northeast FL ti Ga and SC need to pay attention do not get caught off guard very troubling trends

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 11 2018 09:00 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

I'm hoping the overnight model runs will clarify things some, I think the hurricane center was reluctant to change the track on just one time run of some of the models. The evacuation calls in SC seem like a good idea, though.

Joeyfl
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 11 2018 11:51 PM
Re: Florence Lounge


"It must be noted that there remains considerable uncertainty
with the exact track of this system once it approaches the
Southeast coast. The steering flow almost completely diminishes by Thursday night, after which a wide range of possibilities exist. The model solutions in the last 12 hours have changed considerably beyond 60-72 hours, resulting in relatively low confidence in the current forecast. At this juncture it is imperative that everyone in southeast SC/GA continue to closely monitor the latest forecast information."

This was evening discussion from Charleston SC NWS.


SC Bill
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 12 2018 01:40 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

First of all, good luck and be safe to all in the ultimate path of Florence. Knowing just who that may be, though, is challenging at the moment.

Located in Hilton Head, Beaufort County, SC, it has been a roller coaster. First, a mandatory evacuation was called- and then rescinded just before it took effect. Soon after we seemed to be "in the clear", the models went coordinated crazy and started heading for landfall in SC. At this hour, the spaghetti models are all over SC, and NC is almost in the clear. HOWEVER, there's no extension of watches or warnings southward on the coast, no change of "hurricane local statement", but our ordinary, old NOAA forecast includes:

Friday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77.
Saturday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday: Hurricane conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

What to do? Leave early in the morning and try to avoid jammed evac routes when the order is issued again? wait it out, and leave at the last minute? Guidance would be gratefully accepted: With a wife, daughter, son in law, 5 yr old and 11 month old g-daughters, 2 dogs and a cat, this is not an easy caravan to deal with!! Thanks.


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 12 2018 03:00 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

I wish I could help more, but I would say to be prepared to leave with very little notice. I'm trying to warn my friends in South Georgia to be alert. If you're packed and ready to go, you should be able to get out ahead of the worst of the traffic, I assume your car has been topped off with gas?

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 12 2018 04:02 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

More and more of the operational runs of the models are locking on to this left hook just before/into/just after landfall.

The 0z EPS run implies widespread/numerous peak gusts up to around 100 MPH along the S.C. coastline during the 120 hours ending 0z Sep 17.

If that verifies (which is entirely plausible) that would be pretty bad (as in potentially life-threatening), say nothing of the seemingly never-ending surge and rain.



Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Sep 12 2018 06:24 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

Quote:

I'm hoping the overnight model runs will clarify things some, I think the hurricane center was reluctant to change the track on just one time run of some of the models. The evacuation calls in SC seem like a good idea, though.




If anything it made it more uncertain. Take a look at the EPS run:



MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 12 2018 06:49 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

The 0z euro runs are into Savannah, GA this morning after a ride along the coast south from Wilmington, NC. But the other models don't go as far south, GFS rides to Myrtle Beach before going inland. FV3 GFS goes in just north of Charleston, SC after the coast ride from Wilmington. CMC just takes it slowly into North Carolina. 6Z FV3 shifted a bit further north, closer to Murrel's inlet SC after riding down from WIlmington, NC.

0Z HWRF Rides from Wilmington to Myrtle Beach cat 4/3. And the 0z HMON Takes it into Wilmington, then slowly inland from there.

The ensembles (as shown in the post above) take the ride, but differ on how far south it gets. (most in SC, a few in Georgia, but only one has far south as Central Florida) Just shows there is *still* a lot of uncertainty.

This is probably making folks in Georgia and southern South Carolina a bit nervous, just watch closely, the NHC didn't change the track much at 5AM.


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 12 2018 05:47 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

I tried to find where to post conspiracy theory storm predictions, and the Forecast Lounge seems to fit the best as defined as "gut feelings".

To me, as I have brought up a handful of times over the years, I believe with confidence some kind of "secret seeding" is going on with Flo. Note the image below and the "unusual" break in the eye wall.



I've seen a few odd events in this storm in the past 24 hours. Yea, I know, conspiracy theorist. I believe Bacon wrote Shake-Speare.

That said, there have been a few storms where the eye wall breaks up as it approaches important landfall areas. Even Katrina had eye wall issues and it back-fired in a big way.

I understand we cannot publically announce we are seeding this storm or that, as anyone in any path would want their storm seeded. And if it goes sour, like Katrina, who pays the bill?

Should we seed Flo?? That is a very hard call.

Call me crazy. I am Prospero!


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 12 2018 06:00 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

I figured it was some dry air and an Eyewall Replacement Cycle myself.

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 12 2018 06:21 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Quote:

I figured it was some dry air and an Eyewall Replacement Cycle myself.



If it is dry air, it definitely is not being swirled in with the storm, it somehow made a "slice" right across the convection in spite of 130 mph winds.



Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 12 2018 06:44 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

In all seriousness, and I am open to scientific explanations, but I am suggesting that what appears in the image below is a man-made phenomenon that cannot be explained by nature.



The dynamics at point A and very different than the dynamics at point B. A hurricane is a spiral, it is impossible for a line of dry air to suddenly appear across a spiral.

Am I wrong?



UPDATE: I won't post anymore on this forum as it is too important for people who need up-to-date information about the storm. I will just quickly add that North Caroline is able to do cloud seeding, and I wouldn't blame them for seeding Flo. I am not saying they did, but they could:

First Aerial Assault is located in Trenton, North Carolina. This organization primarily operates in the Cloud Seeding business / industry within the Services, Not Elsewhere Classified sector. This organization has been operating for approximately 4 years. First Aerial Assault is estimated to generate $90,000 in annual revenues, and employs approximately 1 people at this single location.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 12 2018 08:50 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

There's an upper level low to the southwest of Florence that is feeding in dry air in the upper levels, along with the ERC it weakened quite a bit. The ULL left in the wake of 94L is forecast to move out in about 8-12 hours, so there's a fair chance it'll strengthen again tomorrow before hitting the shallower areas.

You can see the upper level dry air to the southwest in some of the soundings that the Gulfstream IV dropped and in the water vapor sat shows it well also. The ULL is moving away form the system to the SW.

The biggest weakening agent is the southerly wind shear though, which the graphic below points out with the clouds that are moving north.




Surge momentum is already there regardless.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 12 2018 09:02 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

18Z Models

18z GFS Has a cat 3 making landfall in Wilmington Friday morning, then moves in southwest slowly toward Augusta, by sunday then quickly moves north and out.

18z FV3 GFS landfall Wilmington Friday morning cat 3, then slides along the coast to Myrtle Beach, then moves inland relatively quickly.

12z euro landfall Friday morning Wilmington, Cat 3 then slowly moves down toward Charleston by Sunday morning then loops inland through Augusta then up quickly into the northeast.

18z HWRF landfall Wilmington Cat 3 Friday morning, then inland toward Atlanta by Sunday.

18z HMON landfall near Jacksonville, NC Cat 3 Friday Morning then inland.

Euro Ensembles:



cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 13 2018 04:29 AM
Re: Florence Lounge


As can be seen in the image above taken 09-13-18 0712z, outflow is expanding west, north and east overnight, but is still being severely impinged upon south and southeast. This is primarily the result of some dry air and shear sent her way from both the ULL to the southwest of the hurricane, as well as stout shots from the circulation around a high to her east.

The ULL should continue to drift southwest, while Florence tracks initially a little north of west, and over the warmer waters of the gulf stream. This combination should allow for a window in which some reorganization and deepening can occur, and it would not be surprising to see the hurricane back up to a Saffir-Simpson major prior to landfall.

More troublesome for residents along the southeast coast, however, is not the SS wind rating Flo's got, but a vastly larger Hurricane Force (HF) wind radius. As noted elsewhere, this is going to increase the surge potential over a much larger area. For comparison, Katrina underwent similar changes, making final landfall as Cat 2/3 on Louisiana, yet the surge was record-setting in large part due to her size and time over water.

Worse yet, given the probability that this cyclone slows down to a crawl for quite a while, this surge will not let up any time soon over some places - even forcing rivers to run backwards, thereby not allowing all of the runoff from the torrential rains further inland from exiting into the ocean - and that water will have to go somewhere.


tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 13 2018 08:01 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

Quote:

There's an upper level low to the southwest of Florence that is feeding in dry air in the upper levels, along with the ERC it weakened quite a bit.




Naw - I want the conspiratorial explanation instead of weather facts


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 13 2018 12:05 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

No disrespect to Prospero cause that would be some life saving technology but, I am not sure what you would seed a Hurricane with to disrupt that much Energy. Copied the following off of the website Live Science:

"A fully developed hurricane releases 50 or more terawatts of heat energy at any given moment, only about 1 percent of which is converted into wind. The heat release, Landsea wrote, "is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes." The entire human race in 2011 used about a third of the energy present in an average hurricane."


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 13 2018 12:54 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Quote:

...but, I am not sure what you would seed a Hurricane with to disrupt that much Energy.




There is a lot of information online about it and it does have an interesting history. The official word is that they don't do it anymore. But I believe they do. ("They" can be anybody.)

https://climateviewer.com/2014/03/25/history-cloud-seeding-pluviculture-hurricane-hacking/



tpratch
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 13 2018 01:14 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

From that site you posted, they did mention to disrupt a hurricane would take a fleet of aircraft seeding, yet the company you posted about has one employee?

Honestly I don't believe there's much smoke or fire in this one.


IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 13 2018 03:56 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Prospero-

To give man the credit for the natural phenomena (dry air intrusion) that degenerated hurricane Florence's circulation does not acknowledge the fact that we are at the mercy of the vagrancies of weather- not the other way around. Man will never be able to control or significantly alter weather events when desired... though our carbon footprint will increasingly continue to anthropogenically exacerbate extreme weather events unintentionally unless we reverse course!


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 13 2018 04:04 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

One picture that does not fit ones preconceived idea of what dry air entrainment should look like, is not proof of tampering by cloud seeding. There are likely many possible scientific explanations of what was seen on that frame OTHER than man-made tampering. Carl Sagan has much to say about these things in his book, "The Demon Haunted World: Science as Candle in the Darkness".....I highly recommend it.

PS. Cloud seeding was never dependable enough for practical use even to attempt relief during a drought. The army also looked into it as a possible weapon (Think flooding out an attacking army) and found it too unreliable and expensive to use. If NOAA had found a way to use the stuff against hurricanes it would be huge loud front page news!!


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 13 2018 04:08 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Okay folks, let's put this thread back on track. The Forecast Lounge is not the place to discuss conspiracy theories. Perhaps open up an ASK/TELL if you wish to discuss it further. And I'm willing to ban if necessary, so thanks in advance for your help.
- Ciel


JMII
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 13 2018 05:25 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

The dry air that got sucked in has weaken the system, now a Cat 2 with 100 mph winds but the core is trying to wrap up. Forward speed has decreased as expected. Currently tracking slight N of the predicted path. The land interaction is going to cause wobbles and strength shifts as the inflow is disrupted. DirectTV has a "Weather Mix" channel on channel 600 with 4 live feeds from various channels covering the storm including local NC coverage. Live YouTube stream from Hurricane Track in Wilmington North Carolina: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKAQ2InuPd8

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 13 2018 07:11 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

This is a good Live cam with sound which adds a lot of effect:

Frying Pan Ocean Cam with Sound


Joeyfl
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 13 2018 07:46 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Gust 112 mph at Onslow bay buoy.

Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 13 2018 07:57 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Wrightsville Buoy

44 mph N (10°), Gusting: to 132 mph at 7:08 pm

UPDATE: Looks like 7:08 pm might be the last reading from several weather stations.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 13 2018 08:44 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

This gust is so much higher than the sustained wind I was left wondering if perhaps one buoy got hit by a tornado, but could not discern any vortex on radar over Station 41038 at that time. So, I began looking to see if any other buoys were showing impressive gusts, for verification. Sure enough. It looks like there may be gusts well into the 100s in some of these bands now moving close to shore.

*Worth noting that both of these buoys appear to be reporting sustained winds averaged over an eight-minute period. In the Atlantic, hurricane wind speed is measured over a two-minute average. In addition, these anemometers are only 3 meters above sea level. The standard reporting elevation is over three times that (ten meters).

EDIT:
** These buoys are being QCd for accuracy. 41064 in particular looks to have had a malfunction of some type. It is possible that these peak gusts will be revised. It is also possible that they were related to a waterspout. TBD.



JMII
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 13 2018 11:01 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Reports of massive storm surge are starting to come in, especially in New Bern, NC. Hurricane Track has a live cam in Oriental NC that is showing water up to the level of a speed limit sign.

11PM update is out, winds down to 90 MPH (Cat 1) with a 10 foot surge on the Neuse River Morehead City, NC.


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 14 2018 06:22 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

Some of the Weather Channel's best live hurricane coverage right now in the eye wall of Florence in Wilmington, NC with Stephanie Abrams and Jim Cantore.

https://weather.com/tv/the-weather-channel-live/video/watch-the-weather-channel-live



Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 14 2018 06:37 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

110 mph gust at Onslow Bay Outer Buoy just a few minutes ago at 6:08 am.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 14 2018 08:20 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

Its just crawling along the coast, moving SW from landfall in Wrightsville Beach towards Southport. Due to the shape of the coast and direction of travel it might go back over the ocean before making a second landfall near Myrtle Beach.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 14 2018 03:51 PM
Re: Florence Lounge




JMII
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 14 2018 04:00 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Great chart above! At landfall the NHC reported 90 MPH winds which aligns with Wrightsville Beach reporting 87.

In the 9 hours since landfall Flo has moved all of 37 miles... that's like a brisk walking pace (4 mph).


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 14 2018 05:55 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Wonder why they didn't list Wrightsville Buoy with a recorded 132 mph gust at 7:08 pm last night.

I have noticed you have to zoom into the wind map a bit for it to appear on SailFlow, but NOAA should do that or have access to the stats.


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 14 2018 06:02 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Quote:

In the 9 hours since landfall Flo has moved all of 37 miles... that's like a brisk walking pace (4 mph).




Irma passed by Pinellas County last year with gusts in the 80s at the most for only a few hours. Power was out for weeks in many locations, trees were down everywhere. What a mess! 24 hours of that same wind would have been even more devastating to us! Flo has been hammering the mid-NC coast for at least 24 hours now. How long will power be out up there?


JMII
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 14 2018 07:42 PM
Re: Florence Lounge

Quote:

24 hours of that same wind would have been even more devastating to us!




True that constant pounding plus saturated ground is going to uproot many, many trees and NC has some big trees. However on the flip side since Flo has basically stayed in the same spot I think that wind related damage will be concentrated to just that regional area.

Contrast this with Wilma and Irma - both of which were also large storms but moved quickly and thus effected a much larger area, about 1/2 of Florida due to their path across the state. I'm thinking as far as areas effected Flo will more like Andrew with wind damage limited to only a small pocket. Flooding and surge covers a much bigger zone this time. And of course the level of damage will be MUCH lower since we are talking Cat 2 winds vs Cat 5.

For those of us in Broward Irma was actually a long duration event - we got NE winds while she was in the Keys, then E winds while she was in Naples, then finally SW winds as she moved towards Ocala. At my location I would estimate that we had TS winds for nearly 36 hours. This resulted in nearly no damage because the wind wasn't strong enough to complete uproot trees, it just snapped off smaller branches. During Wilma many trees (of all sizes) came down. She was moving very quickly but had massive core with 80 to 110 mph eye wall winds.



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