Sun Jun 06 2021 10:08 AM
Long Range Model Speculation 2021

The GFS and Euro ensembles have been hinting for the past several days at something in the West Caribbean or Southeast GUlf, including this morning where a hurricane shows up in a few of the EPS Ensembles next week. The GFS has been going back and forth (This morning showing a hurricane in the Gulf approaching the W. Coast of Florida on the 17th) But in prior runs shifted around a lot.

As general for long range hints like these, until something develops, they are nothing more on indicators of general areas to watch (W/Carib or around Cuba late this weekend) for persistence over the coming days.

Fri Jun 11 2021 08:18 AM
Re: Long Range Model Speculation 2021

Alignment on the various models for the area in the Bay of Campeche that may develop is approaching. GFS, Euro, and Canadian all show something forming (At varying strengths) later next week for something to landfall near Texas or Louisiana on Saturday the 19th.

At this point since nothing has developed, hyper focusing on track or strength right now is not a great idea, but the rain potential is pretty large at the very least.

One thing notable in the GFS/Euro models, There is strong winds coming in over the Caribbean combined with the moisture it is pushing in and with the rotation of the cyclone. The winds are could spin up the storm even further, not a good setup for the gulf coast for rain and surge at least.

Wed Jun 23 2021 10:48 AM
Re: Long Range Model Speculation 2021

The euro ensembles from this morning shows numerous ensemble members with development just off the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia in about 2-3 days.

Water temps in this region are running above the long term average and there is a substantial tropical wave about to emerge from the west coast of Africa so I suppose it is plausible that we could see something try to get going that far east. Currently there is no mention of this from the NHC but that could change if the idea persists later today.

(Weather Guru)
Mon Jun 28 2021 08:13 AM
Re: Long Range Model Speculation 2021

As the season progresses, do you think the current position and relative strength of the Atlantic high pressure ridge in June will hold through July, then possibly into early August?

The origin and business-like WNW track of the invests (regardless of strength) has my attention if it continues to be the steering set up.

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