cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Jun 29 2021 09:41 PM
Elsa Lounge



Once again, yet another unseasonably vigorous tropical wave is already approaching tropical cyclone status, and so despite the fact that the disturbance recently tagged Invest 97L is way out in the MDR of the Tropical Atlantic, which typically wouldn't be of much interest until later in a season, we are starting a lounge on this feature that could become another early season numbered TC as soon as overnight tonight or tomorrow.

Early model guidance suggests that the disturbance will track through the Caribbean, and this looks likely given the very stout Bermuda High. While conditions for further development may be less than ideal on approach to and just inside of the eastern Caribbean, given the unusually feisty nature of African Easterly Waves this season, it would not shock to see this become a more serious storm at some point in its cycle.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Jun 30 2021 12:13 AM
Re: 97L Lounge

97L increasingly looks like it has a very good shot of becoming the Atlantic's first hurricane, and possibly also first long-track hurricane, of 2021.



scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Jun 30 2021 01:15 PM
Re: 97L Lounge

They'll probably classify it this evening.. infact they almost have to due to the time it will take to get to the islands.. say 48hours out.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Jun 30 2021 02:18 PM
Re: 97L Lounge

Models don't look very good for West Central FL on July 5-6. I'm sure they will change as the system develops and the mid-lat systems progress. I'll be keeping my eyes on this one and be ready to prep if need be.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Jul 01 2021 09:03 AM
Re: 97L Lounge

Waiting for a couple of days to draw any conclusions. We know how fickle storms in the Caribbean can be..

JMII.
(Registered User)
Thu Jul 01 2021 12:40 PM
Re: 97L Lounge

These long track storms are always fickle... a small change today could, or equally could not, shift the cone radically. We have gotten so much rain these last two weeks in SFL that I would prefer Elsa not visit us. Looks pretty healthy currently but she is way down south. Don't remember many storms reaching us from such a low latitude (10N).

IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jul 01 2021 01:53 PM
Re: 97L Lounge

LLC just cleared 10N, now a more WNW track than previous advisory. Past hours loop shows healthy convection firing near and north of LLC and banding in the SW quadrant. Remarkable to have a strengthening tropical storm so far south in the Atlantic moving so fast.

Not hoping for a close passage to peninsular Florida, but here in coastal central Volusia County I could really use 3" or more spread out over several days. I measured only 4.14" in June (3.5" below normal), annual deficit now 7"+ for Station Number FL-VL-42 Daytona Beach Shores 1.8 SSE

Community Collaborative Florida Rain Network


OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 01 2021 03:30 PM
Re: 97L Lounge

A long way away and way south. We shall all keep a cautious eye on her.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Jul 01 2021 05:29 PM
Re: 97L Lounge

Had about 5” this week which took us to near normal for June…before that we had very little rain since April..

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Thu Jul 01 2021 05:47 PM
Re: 97L Lounge

Please, the experts weigh in. Why is the Euro so radically different? Changes to the model itself? Not enough input data? Etc?????

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Jul 02 2021 06:00 AM
Re: 97L Lounge

Good morning. Watching the larger satellite video this A.M. There is a stronger flow over Hispaniola than the flow to the south. Therefore I think the Euro model has the better data and the storm will exit the Caribbean over that island. We should know by this evening as it is now crossing into that area.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 02 2021 11:55 AM
Re: 97L Lounge

Don't we have the Radar Amination from Martinque Mike usually posts? Or can admin/mod post ? ty

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 02 2021 12:06 PM
Re: 97L Lounge

GFS is under performing intenisty guidance.. but does show LLC racing WNW, thus keeping this a min hurricane (adjusting to the poor MB intenisty performance. Still with this going so fast.. decoupling will happen, especially by time it gets to Cuba and exitiing it. LLC could wander WNW to NW.. midelevel moisture N into Florida.. still this is just 1 run of the GFS.. will have a better idea 0z run and tomorrow.

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 02 2021 03:43 PM
Re: 97L Lounge

Looks like the Euro has her going far more west than previous runs.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 02 2021 09:01 PM
Re: 97L Lounge

It’s been trending west likely because it’s moving so fast. It’s entering an area of increased shear which should weaken it. However if it holds on and manages to stay off the islands a stronger storm might effect the FL Keys. Flip side is it struggles, gets disrupted and becomes a weak TS out in the gulf bothering nobody.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Jul 03 2021 08:44 AM
Re: 97L Lounge

Next 24 hours will tell us a lot. The speed it is moving is it’s greatest enemy and it is unstacked…if that continues it may not survive as an organized storm after interacting with the land parcels it must cross… n

JMII
(Weather Master)
Sat Jul 03 2021 11:27 AM
Re: 97L Lounge

As of 11AM its been downgraded to the TS and is looking ragged, even the outflow has disrupted. All the thunderstorm energy is displaced to the SE. On its current track Elsa is going to spend nearly 24 hours over Cuba cut off from the ocean. Seems like the weaker option of the forecast is looking more likely.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 03 2021 11:28 AM
Re: 97L Lounge

I might disagree a bit with 'in the Gulf bothering nobody'.....West Central Florida is awash in precipitation today after a very rainy week and a half and a TS to the west of us could bring a host of flooding problems to this area. Those in flood-prone areas need to stay highly informed and vigilant even if the storm weakens significantly as it approaches. May end up not being much of a wind event, but can still cause a lot of issues for some people. Stay tuned!

tinahdee
(Registered User)
Sat Jul 03 2021 04:58 PM
UKMET track question

I noticed that on the Skeetobite spaghetti model, the UKMET track deadends at the base of Cuba - does this mean anything in particular - does it mean the UKMET thinks Elsa will dissipate at that point? Or is it just an anomaly?

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Jul 03 2021 05:28 PM
Re: UKMET track question

The most recent UKMET run on Elsa issued 12z today does suggest that the cyclone falls apart prior to crossing Cuba.

The Skeetobite plot referenced might be in the process of updating the 12z run.

Here is another view of the most recent run, which also suggests Elsa degenerates.



However, just for complete disclosure, more comprehensive maps of the UKMET 12z run also show regeneration of some degree west of Florida, possibly coming ashore in the northwest part of the state at TD/lower-end TS.

Also worth mentioning that a number of other models' most recent runs point to degeneration prior to crossing Cuba, with some regenerating, and others not so much, if at all.


tinahdee
(Registered User)
Sat Jul 03 2021 06:00 PM
Re: UKMET track question

Thank you, that's illuminating

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Jul 03 2021 07:10 PM
Re: UKMET track question

I went to the FSU model ensemble site and ran that model (12Z) frame by frame. It does indicate that
Elsa seems to dissipate over Cuba, but picks it up again just north of Tampa Bay as a weak system.


OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Sun Jul 04 2021 06:54 AM
Re: UKMET track question

Models are all tracking fairly consistent with each other. Here in SW Seminole county, look like we will be on the dirty side.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Jul 04 2021 09:09 AM
Re: UKMET track question

Today is the day that will clarify the future of the storm. Long exposure to Cuba vs a short right turn over the western portion of the island. It continues to be a disorganized system which long land exposure will keep it weak. We all know that the Gulf Stream currents have very warm water which is why it will likely not totally dissipate no matter what…and will facilitate some improvement as it passes over it.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Jul 04 2021 10:03 AM
Re: UKMET track question

Looking at the floater geocolor loop, there is a significant convective development apparently near the center just north of Jamaica with good outflow in all but the western quadrant this AM. Elsa’s satellite presentation is not as disorganized as it was earlier.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Jul 04 2021 05:12 PM
Re: UKMET track question

Tropical Storm watch has just been issued for my area (Tampa/Plant City/Lakeland) 'until further notice'....

JMII
(Weather Master)
Sun Jul 04 2021 05:26 PM
Re: UKMET track question

It continues to maintain this little ball of energy and looks really good, but the data indicates its still struggling and the interaction with Cuba is likely to keep it in check. Of course once it pops back out over the ocean the window for strengthening is available. The question will be how much is left and how quickly can it spin up.

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Jul 04 2021 08:07 PM
Re: UKMET track question

As long as it doesn't do a 'Charley'.....probably too early in the season for that to happen....but it HAS happened.

Lautermilch
(Registered User)
Sun Jul 04 2021 08:24 PM
Re: UKMET track question

Quote:

As long as it doesn't do a 'Charley'.....probably too early in the season for that to happen....but it HAS happened.



I am a photographer and thought it would be interesting to 'chase' Charlie. I was taking a break with some others around the eating area at a Texaco in Arcadia when the manager screamed the store was closing five minutes. We asked what was the problem and he yelled back the new strength. I and the others decided to head east. Driving down 70 I watched dead palm fronds getting ripped off so I knew the winds were building.


Robert
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Jul 04 2021 10:32 PM
mid level circulation

I have watched the mid level, or southern extent of the trough that makes up the overall center. It does look good.. It was coupling together last night as it all slowed down and looked great on scatometer, then it immediately got disrupted as it interacted with Jamaica, the low level shot out and is interacting with land while the upper level/ secondary low level features continues west maybe wsw in the last few frames as of this posting..into what i would consider a better environment.
Initial Model runs early indicated much further west, with the first system pulling north as it tried to get going and the latter hit cozumel into the gulf. I assumed that would be wrong as the first sheared out, leaving the second to just chance, and really never thought it would get to florida although this year seems to be very favorable, with a forecasted neutral'ish enso... Most early system do drop thier LLCC and the mid level/secondary low level feature takes control, multiple low level centers in a trough.
I would gesture a stronger system as it turns into the trough, and possibly a sharper turn. should the southern secondary feature take hold, either the north low dies and it drops one, or the southern gets enough strength it can wrap the north back under and get all in line.......


JMII
(Weather Master)
Sun Jul 04 2021 11:35 PM
Re: mid level circulation

It’s currently trying to restack itself and thus gaining strength tonight. The more westward the track the longer it stays over water giving it a fighting chance to not fizzle out. While Charley-like strength is not going to happen a similar ride-the-coast then hook inland part of the forecast is similar. A small change could mean landfall in a wide range of locations. I think another difference here is many on the east coast might be surprised by the strong SE inflow of rain and wind since this is a west FL storm based on current warnings.

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Mon Jul 05 2021 06:09 AM
Re: mid level circulation

Depending on how close she tacks yo the west coast of FL, inland counties could see impacts due to being on the dirty side

EMS
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jul 05 2021 08:31 AM
Re: mid level circulation

This looks like a tropical storm in its formative stages on satellite this morning. Unless something crazy happens (like a reformation of a vertically aligned center further south of the current position), Elsa may barely survive the trip across Cuba. Also with the circulation so small and models trending a bit more west, odds of a significant wind or surge event appear to be significantly decreasing for West Central Florida. Have to keep watch once it gets back in the Gulf but I’m cautiously optimistic July climatology wins out on this one.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Mon Jul 05 2021 08:46 AM
Re: mid level circulation

Lots of thunderstorms are bubbling up but none of them are wrapping around the center... its looking really sloppy this AM. And yes all the bad weather is to the SE so the effects inland could be worse after the center passes your latitude. The SW shear is clearly effecting Elsa as outflow to the NW has been cut off. She is going to have a rough 24 hours with many factors limiting her organization and strength.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Jul 05 2021 09:15 AM
Re: mid level circulation

It's looking to be more and more of a nighttime event for us in the Tampa Bay area. Spending today doing last minute cleanup and prep outside.

tinahdee
(Registered User)
Mon Jul 05 2021 03:04 PM
Re: mid level circulation

I don't know... after having lived in Tampa for 40 years, I've seen too many with stats like this either go further west and impact the panhandle or just fizzle out wind/storm surge wise and just bring some rain. My (decidedly non-expert) gut is that this one is going to fade/fizzle and I didn't really need the county to text me that sandbags are available. I could be totally wrong though.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Mon Jul 05 2021 04:21 PM
Re: mid level circulation

The first feeder band reached me on the SE coast about 10 minutes ago. After this band is... well not much else until the core. Elsa is looking very elongated N/S. Its finally close enough to track via Key West radar, so it will be easy to watch her motion and intensity. The center of circulation appears to be displaced to NE.

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Jul 05 2021 08:35 PM
Re: mid level circulation

Looking at radar, it looks like the motion may be more northerly now, possibly drawing a bead on Key West. Waiting for recon fix and data once the storm exits from Cuba. I have to get up at 4:30 AM to be at work by 6, so I’ll be asleep when the 11 PM advisory and analysis is posted. I’ll check things as soon as I wake, though.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Mon Jul 05 2021 09:02 PM
Re: mid level circulation

Quote:

Looking at radar, it looks like the motion may be more northerly now, possibly drawing a bead on Key West.




Agreed. Radar presentation is pretty sloppy as Elsa is having trouble staying together.


Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jul 06 2021 09:45 AM
Re: mid level circulation

She seems to have held together pretty well overall in the overnight hours. AND the cone seems to have shifted back to the east a bit...towards me....should be an interesting afternoon and overnight.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 06 2021 10:41 AM
Re: mid level circulation

Its a compact little storm, but the track has it hugging the coast the whole way N which means the entire W coast of FL is going get off and on TS conditions during the day.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 06 2021 11:52 AM
Re: mid level circulation

Quote:

She seems to have held together pretty well overall in the overnight hours. AND the cone seems to have shifted back to the east a bit...towards me....should be an interesting afternoon and overnight.




Agree. Nothing overly catastrophic, but plenty of nastier storms than normal for most of Florida the next 24 to 36 hours.


IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 06 2021 12:15 PM
Re: mid level circulation

30 NM to the west of Elsa's position:

buoy # 42026

Noon weather report from Key West: Wind SE39G60mph, pressure 29.95F

Given the reports from other stations to east of Elsa, its obvious that the TS is very lopsided, and 0 to 75 miles east of the track is going to be most impacted. If a convective band taps into Atlantic moisture tonight or Wednesday north of Cape Canaveral when Elsa passes slowly along the Florida Gulf coast, the east coast north of the Cape may get some bad weather too, and my parched location in central coastal Volusia may actually get some beneficial rain.


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 06 2021 02:04 PM
Re: mid level circulation

Second hand information as I haven't looked myself, but reports are that recon is showing near hurricane strength winds and recon has not yet measured the NE quadrant. Presumably we could see Elsa reclassified when recon is finished and confirmed.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 06 2021 03:42 PM
Re: mid level circulation

Finally got another feeder band here on the SE coast but the storms compact size means we are not seeing much. Its just grey and overcast with occasional light rain here in NW Broward.

And yes recon is showing 64-83 kt winds in the NE quad. Seems to isolated to two small bands: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF302-1305A-ELSA.png


IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jul 06 2021 04:32 PM
Re: mid level circulation

Those bands are roughly 25 to 50 mile NE/E of the center. If the track holds due north next 12 hours as the forecast calls for, allowing the center to stay offshore a dozen or so miles from St. Pete Beach, these strong bands in the NE quadrant would put Tampa Bay in the crosshairs for Elsa's highest winds and greatest surge. My son lives in St. Pete (on high ground) but works in Tampa- asked him not to plan on going to work tomorrow as the Gandy and Howard Franklin bridges may close for Elsa.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 06 2021 04:44 PM
Re: mid level circulation

Here is the status of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge: https://www.skywaybridgestatus.com/ taken from https://fl511.com/List/Alerts

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 06 2021 05:06 PM
Re: mid level circulation

Elsa certainly is defying its surroundings. Looking at the radar and satellite floater loops, it appears that the central convection is trying to wrap around the LLC. That said, the heaviest weather is still in the NE and E quadrants removed from the center. If the forecast track confirms, Elsa will give the Tampa Bay region much the same weather as Eta did last November. A slight wobble to the east would dramatically change that though. If the position forecast verifies, the worst will occur between Midnight and 4 AM here in Pinellas County.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 06 2021 09:12 PM
Re: Elsa Lounge

Likely responding to shear, for much of the day the LLC has been realigning itself with the MLC, and tracking just a wee bit extra to the right seemingly with every hour or few. This may bring meaningfully deteriorating conditions ashore sooner rather than later, with locations including but not limited to from about Tampa to roughly Cedar Key seeing some of the very worst of it starting possibly well before dawn and then continuing into the morning tomorrow, easing from west to east, but with onshore flow continuing, potentially exacerbating storm surge, inland flooding and wind damage that would have already occurred.

JMII
(Weather Master)
Tue Jul 06 2021 10:28 PM
Re: Elsa Lounge

Based on radar the eye that was trying to form has completely collapsed. However Sarasota, Venice and North Port appear to be getting hammered by a line of strong storms.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Jul 06 2021 11:33 PM
Re: Elsa Lounge

Dry air is definitely being injected into the system from the southwest tonight. With cloud tops now having been warming since shortly after Elsa was upgraded at 8PM, it seems all but certain that the long championed 'supernatural' way Tampa Bay has avoided a direct hurricane hit for a century holds yet once more, and that possibly even Elsa's rain will taper off rather abruptly after passage.

That said, fair to say that the one thing we have noted with Elsa is not to count her out, and she could easily pick up a difluence assist ahead.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Jul 07 2021 06:48 AM
Re: Elsa Lounge

2.65 inches of rain here in Parrish on my station. Highest wind gusts at 23…very fortunate… we seem to be in the gap between bands

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Jul 07 2021 11:56 AM
Re: Elsa Lounge

If nothing else, Elsa may be one of the most resilient storms ever. In effect it has survived although, structurally, only half a storm for over a week..


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