IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Tue Oct 12 2021 02:55 PM
Western Caribbean system just before Halloween?

GFS continues to suggest gradual development of a system in the western Caribbean Sea, drifting north by the end of October:

SST's in this climo favored area are very supportive, and it doesn't look like there will be any strong cold fronts to scour out moisture over the eastern GOMEX and Florida peninsula.


IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Wed Oct 13 2021 10:58 AM
Re: Western Caribbean system just before Halloween?

Latest run has strong high pressure building over the SE US and GOMEX behind a cold front shunting a weak low into central America before it ever gets going:


IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Wed Oct 13 2021 11:12 AM
Re: Western Caribbean system just before Halloween?

The massive 1034mb ridge then stays anchored for several days::

If this scenario sets up, the strong pressure gradient could lead to a prolonged period of onshore flow off the Atlantic and coastal erosion along Florida's east coast about the same time as the full moon and king tides.



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