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IsoFlame
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(Weather Guru)
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Tue Oct 12 2021 02:55 PM
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Western Caribbean system just before Halloween?
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GFS continues to suggest gradual development of a system in the western Caribbean Sea, drifting north by the end of October:
SST's in this climo favored area are very supportive, and it doesn't look like there will be any strong cold fronts to scour out moisture over the eastern GOMEX and Florida peninsula.
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IsoFlame
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(Weather Guru)
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Wed Oct 13 2021 10:58 AM
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Re: Western Caribbean system just before Halloween?
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Latest run has strong high pressure building over the SE US and GOMEX behind a cold front shunting a weak low into central America before it ever gets going:
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IsoFlame
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(Weather Guru)
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Wed Oct 13 2021 11:12 AM
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Re: Western Caribbean system just before Halloween?
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The massive 1034mb ridge then stays anchored for several days::
If this scenario sets up, the strong pressure gradient could lead to a prolonged period of onshore flow off the Atlantic and coastal erosion along Florida's east coast about the same time as the full moon and king tides.
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