cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 16 2015 12:17 PM
ExTrop Patricia Off To Great Lakes

Image below taken Fri Morning Oct 16, 2015


A broad area of increasingly favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development is taking hold in the southwestern Atlantic and extreme far eastern Pacific, over and either side of an area extending from the Yucatan to Central America.

As of 10 AM Oct 16, this region featured an expanding area of scattered and mostly unorganized showers and thunderstorms, with several tropical waves, two tracked wave pouches (51L, 52E), one low center, and a stationary frontal boundary to their northeast. In the mid-levels, troughing is co-located with the wave in the western Caribbean. In the upper-levels, broad anti-cyclonic flow aloft is centered over the northwestern Caribbean.

For over a week, models have been honing in on this general area for development, and although the exact timing of development has been pushed further out with successive runs, the conditions foreseen by these runs are now mostly starting to appear, and it looks increasingly possible that at least one or two tropical and/or hybrid cyclones will form somewhere between the far eastern Pacific to the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, within the next seven days.

None of these features are yet Invest tagged, but if and when they do, this thread will be updated with the Invest tag numbers. It is worth noting that there is an above normal chance for a cross-over from the far east Pac into the western Atlantic, perhaps around the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and so should a far eastern Pacific disturbance form that has robust model support for doing so, it will be tagged and followed in this thread given a then likelihood of being re-tagged or re-numbered.

The next name on the list in the Atlantic is Kate.

Title edited to reflect changes of status


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 16 2015 02:47 PM
Re: Developing Carib/Gulf Low

The broad area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Honduras associated with a tropical wave is now being tracked as Invest 92L. NHC odds for development of this feature as of 2PM EDT 10/16 are 10% within 48 hours and 20% within 120 hours.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 22 2015 03:27 AM
Re: Ctrl Am. Lows: Trof, 92L & Patricia May Impact Texas

Image below:
Broad area of low pressure with embedded wave pouches and associated trofs, which at the time this image was taken, had been seriously disrupted by both land interaction - essentially dividing the parent gyre up into thirds - and by the very high shear in its northern portion.




Invest 92L mostly fell apart. The trof to its east - now as of 00Z Oct 22 - is just offshore of the Texas coast and contributing to the very impressive Total Precipitable Water levels seen moving inland. Invest 97E went on to become Hurricane Patricia.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 22 2015 03:39 AM
Re: Ctrl Am. Lows: Trof, 92L & Patricia May Impact Texas

Given the current and forecast intensity and depth of Patricia, together with the strength of the mid/upper-level flow along and ahead of the upper-level low moving into Texas from the southwest, more and more of the most recent model runs actually take Patricia, or its remnant Low, incredibly across mainland Mexico and into south Texas and/or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, where some runs redevelop it.

Normally this would be an unlikely stretch, but because of the intensity of both the hurricane and the steering currents, along with copious amounts of moisture increase at all levels, is now possible.

Should the circulation remain fairly intact south of the Texas/Mexico border, even if "Patricia" is only a remnant low, it would serve to pump even more deep, tropical moisture into Texas, which would tend to make an historic Texas rain event even more possible later this week - weekend, and perhaps into early next week.



Image credit: SFWMD


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 22 2015 03:51 AM
Re: Ctrl Am. Lows: Trof, 92L & Patricia May Impact Texas

While most recent model runs suggest that the low and mid level centers of Patricia will decouple, either along the southwest coast of Mexico - or once the system - still intact, attempts to traverse the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico, more and more of the runs are suggesting as mentioned above that there will be enough of a low-level circulation in tow, that the more robust mid-level circulation can sustain the system as a whole, all the way into Texas and/or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The most aggressive of these runs is the 10/22 00Z GFDL, which redevelops Patricia into a formidable hurricane off the coast of Houston around Monday the 26th or Tuesday the 27th.




cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 22 2015 04:55 AM
Re: Ctrl Am. Lows: Trof, 92L & Patricia May Impact Texas

Not nearly as wound up as the 00Z GFDL above, the 10/22 00Z run of the GFS suggests the potential for a significant core rain event over south Texas, or at the very least, greatly enhanced rainfall over the eastern half of the state later this weekend/early next week.




Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Oct 22 2015 12:15 PM
Re: Remains of Patricia May Impact Texas

From the NHC 22/15Z Discussion on EASTPAC Patricia:

"Note that model guidance suggests that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas."

ED


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 22 2015 02:06 PM
Re: Remains of Patricia May Impact Texas

Recon finds Patricia much stronger, now a 130 MPH Cat 4 sporting a pinhole eye inside very deep convection.

1:00 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 Location: 15.0°N 104.0°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb Max sustained: 130 mph




cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 22 2015 06:07 PM
Re: Patricia May Impact Texas

Patricia's intensity heading into an all but certain western Mexico landfall is looking to be historic.

For reference, here is the list of the Top 5 East Pac hurricane landfalls (by wind intensities)

Landfalling Pacific Major Hurricanes
Intensity as measured solely by wind speed:

'Mexico' 1959 160 mph* (260 km/h) , Madeline 1976 145 mph (230 km/h) , Iniki 1992 145 mph (230 km/h), Unnamed 1957 140 mph (225 km/h) , Kenna 2002 140 mph (225 km/h) *Initial reanalysis suggests the 1959 'Mexico' hurricane may have been Cat 4 at landfall.

From the NHC 400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Discussion. .
Quote:


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect
the warning area tonight or early Friday.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning
late tonight and continuing into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 15.4N 104.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 18.1N 105.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 20.6N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND




cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 23 2015 01:20 AM
Re: Patricia May Impact Texas

Record-shattering
Quote:


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 5:05Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 20 in 2015
Storm Name: Patricia (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 10

A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 4:46:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°19'N 105°18'W (16.3167N 105.3W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,182m (7,159ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 179kts (From the SE at ~ 206.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 894mb (26.40 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 28°C (82°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,001m (9,846ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 179kts (~ 206.0mph) which was observed 4 nautical miles to the NE (46°) from the flight level center at 4:45:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 25kts (From the W at 29mph)




cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 23 2015 01:39 AM
Record-Setting Patricia

HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Quote:

The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant
increase in the intensity of the hurricane. Reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an
incredible rate since yesterday. The plane measured peak 700-mb
flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this
may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone. Using the 90
percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed
yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern
north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.

A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of
894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface
winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)
gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks
the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall
replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through
landfall this afternoon or evening...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND




Hawkeyewx
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Oct 23 2015 03:26 AM
Re: Record-Setting Patricia

This thing is unreal. The final recon pass appears to make Patricia the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the western hemisphere... 880 mb and 200 mph surface wind. It may strengthen a bit more, amazingly, but recon had to leave so we won't get any additional measurements.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 23 2015 04:44 AM
Re: Record-Setting Patricia



From NHC:
Quote:

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity, based on a blend of 700mb-flight level and SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for our AOR.




Doombot!
(Weather Guru)
Fri Oct 23 2015 04:29 PM
Eye wall diameter?

So Patricia is already the strongest Western hemisphere hurricane, but the eyewall has continued to shrink throughout the day, to the point of being nearly invisible without
zoom.

As I recall, Wilma got down to a 2nm eye, but this seems smaller. Is there any data to back this up?

D!


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 23 2015 05:15 PM
Re: Eye wall diameter?

Quote:

So Patricia is already the strongest Western hemisphere hurricane, but the eyewall has continued to shrink throughout the day, to the point of being nearly invisible without zoom.

As I recall, Wilma got down to a 2nm eye, but this seems smaller. Is there any data to back this up?

D!




The most recent and possibly final pass through Patricia's center reported a circular eye with a diameter of 5 nautical miles. The reason it appears to be even smaller than that is because it has been filling during the past hour - likely starting an ERC right into landfall (with pressures probably up and winds down some).


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Oct 23 2015 05:39 PM
Re: Eye wall diameter?

Looks like it's starting an ERC on the latest 85GHz pass. Not enough time to finish before landfall. This will lessen winds a little (not that with a 200mph storm less winds means much).

Beautiful storm, though:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Patricia.A2015296.1730.500m.jpg

Here's the 85GHz:



cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 23 2015 05:56 PM
Re: Patricia May Impact Texas

Assuming Patricia's Low Level Center does not decouple and get left behind upon traversing the very rough Sierra Madre Occidental mountain range (with a peak elevation of over 10,000') in western Mexico, it is forecast to continue tracking all the way to just west of Brownsville, TX, and so, these plots are the official forecast positions from NHC giving the LLC the benefit of the doubt.

But this does not tell the whole story.

Patricia's very intense Mid Level Circulation will almost certainly continue over Mexico to the northeast or east-northeast and cross into south Texas and/or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, where, either together with the original Low Level Center, or, more likely, a reconstructed one, could become a very powerful non-tropical, or quasi-tropical cyclone there. This new Low will be bringing with it high amounts of both vorticity and moisture, with the potential to exacerbate flooding in the state. In addition to this potential for additional heavy to torrential rains, the hybridized cyclone may promote some damaging wind gusts in squalls and/or bowing segments, along with a heightened risk of brief tornadoes and waterspouts.




cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 25 2015 09:19 AM
Re: Patricia's Merger Low in GOM

Patricia's remnant merger Coastal Low

Not looking quite so frontal this morning.





cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 26 2015 06:19 PM
Re: Post-Trop Patricia in Louisiana




cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Oct 27 2015 05:04 AM
Re: Post-Trop Patricia in Louisiana



NASA.Gov Video Satellite Sees Remnants from Hurricane Patricia Affecting Southern U.S.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Oct 27 2015 05:31 AM
Re: ExTrop Patricia Off To Great Lakes

Some examples of the current ExTrop Patricia related Watches & Warnings

Event: Gale Watch
Quote:

Alert:

...GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.




Event: High Wind Warning
Quote:

Alert:

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND LAKE ERIE SHORE LINE IN WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND SOUTHWESTERN ERIE COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.




These are just two examples related to ExTrop Patricia, and are time-sensitive. Please check with your local National Weather Service and reliable media outlets for up-to-date Watches & Warnings in your area. Members can also customize Advisory, Watch & Warning feeds on this website at the top of the Main Page.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Oct 27 2015 05:36 AM
Re: ExTrop Patricia Off To Great Lakes

UKMET Model Forecast for "Frankentricia," as it has started being called.


A = Starting Point C = Current Location (as of model initialization) Z = End of Run Forecast Location


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Oct 28 2015 03:28 AM
Re: Patricia May Impact Texas

Cannot recall another example in my lifetime where a tropical cyclone crossed so much of Mexico, and retained so much of its vorticity intact, all the way to the Gulf

Phenomenal Patricia



cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Oct 28 2015 05:28 AM
Re: Patricia May Impact Texas

Not all Patricia's doing, but she certainly had a big hand in producing these totals.




Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center