MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed May 01 2019 10:37 AM
Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

This is the post for numbers of storms in the format of TropicalStorms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes. This will be open until June 1st.

My guess for 2019 is 11/8/4


Last year (2018) 15/8/2 was the final number at the close of the season.
Liz was closest with 15/8/4 Frederick was also very close with 14/8/3


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Wed May 01 2019 12:01 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

12/5/3

Wingwiper
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat May 04 2019 12:35 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

13/6/3

EMS
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat May 04 2019 04:17 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

14/7/2

Feel like this year’s official forecasts are a little too low again.


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat May 04 2019 06:13 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

13/7/3

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Tue May 07 2019 10:07 AM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

13/9/3 ? Land of the love bugs right now beachside.

beachcrafts
(Registered User)
Wed May 08 2019 08:31 AM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

13/6/3

MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Wed May 08 2019 05:09 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

14/6/3

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri May 10 2019 06:02 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

12/6/2

jtrnr1951
(Registered User)
Sat May 11 2019 06:23 AM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

15-10-5

Hopefully I'm wrong again....


IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Sun May 12 2019 11:10 AM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

12/6/3

Keeping it simple with the common multiplier 2.


vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Mon May 20 2019 12:55 AM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

11/5/2

Larry
(Weather Watcher)
Thu May 23 2019 01:28 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

12/7/4

JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Thu May 23 2019 07:17 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

14/9/4

M.A.
(Weather Guru)
Fri May 24 2019 05:43 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

14/6/2

IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Mon May 27 2019 02:45 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

Tweaking my original prognostication of 12/6/3 to 13/5/3

gsand
(Weather Watcher)
Tue May 28 2019 05:55 AM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

11/4/2
Stay safe everyone...


IMTechspec
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed May 29 2019 07:54 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

My best guess is 13 / 6 / 3 .

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri May 31 2019 11:34 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

Using a slightly tweaked version of a general formula I've been working on the past several years, I'm going with a range of
11-17 Names, 5-9 Hurricanes, 2-4 Majors, and for the purpose of our contest 14 Names, 7 Hurricanes, 3 Majors (Including our already named "A storm").

As for Atlantic-side (Gulf, Caribbean, Atlantic) US impacts (continental and/or islands), I'm looking for:
*Better than historical average odds of TC landfalls.
*Better than the historical average of flood-producing tropical cyclone impacts (potentially including "just" Tropical Depression/s).
*Average historical odds of a Major US landfall (less than 2018, but still significant!)

In the Central/East Pac, the potential for another above-average impact season (Hawaii, California/Southwest).


2019 Contest Numbers in the Atlantic:
14 Names, 7 Hurricanes, 3 Majors


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sat Jun 01 2019 03:54 AM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

Really, Im just slow to realize that it's already June!

My reasoned guess is:
16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 Majors.

Above average season but not anything super hyperactive.

Looks like a,positive enso, and warmer SSTs will combine to make conditions for storms but higher shear will limit the number of hurricanes slightly.


bob3d
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jun 01 2019 01:20 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

12/6/3

Average season


Kraig
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Jun 04 2019 07:17 AM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

11/5/3

IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jun 04 2019 02:24 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

Hey MikeC, are you going to lock the thread?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Jun 05 2019 07:02 PM
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions

June 1st was the last day for predictions. Although I'll let the last one slide. No more.


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