Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Sep 20 2003 11:35 PM
It Must Be September

At least a couple of active areas to remind us that the season is far from over. In the western Gulf of Mexico a strong area of upper divergence has sparked a large area of convection. Although the area is now in a diurnal decline, it has persisted for a couple of days and it has acquired some cyclonic curvature. The area is currently (21/03Z) focused at 22N 95.5W and has a general motion to the east northeast at 15 knots. The models keep trying to do something with this area and move it along the northern Gulf coast in a couple of days.

A strong wave near 19.5N 53W has been moving to the west northwest at 15 knots and continues to support heavy convection. It is also in a downward diurnal cycle at the moment and has the potential for slow development over the next couple of days.

A third wave in the far eastern Atlantic is rather weak and only has limited thunderstorm activity associated with it. It faces an environment that will not promote much development for awhile.

The Atlantic ridge has been weakened and split by a large upper level low in the central north Atlantic. The western segment of the ridge has been displaced somewhat to the south. Northerly shear is in place between 85W and 70W while westerly shear exists between 70W and 60W along and south of 20N. Below 15N there is very little shear from 60W to the African coast.

The basin may currently be inactive in terms of named storms but I don't see that condition lasting for too much longer.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


lorio
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 21 2003 09:18 AM
Re: It Must Be September

TPC's Tropical Discussion indicates a very large anti-cyclone over GOM and surrounding areas. The sat images appears to show cyclonic circulation at low levels. Is there something really developing, and if so would it not be massive?
I'd love to hear from someone with expertise.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Sep 21 2003 09:40 AM
Re: It Must Be September

Expertise, I have little.... but the pressures are still on the high side and rising, a little wind but it is the tail end of a front. Got to get organized yet

57497479
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 21 2003 10:36 AM
Re: It Must Be September

Looks like the models are taking a little tour around the gulf now. Guess we get to pick and choose where we want a low to form. Lot's of disorganized weather in the GOM but nothing a sure thing. Watch mode again I guess. Hopefully the URL worked this time, if not I will keep trying... click here

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Sep 21 2003 11:12 AM
Re: It Must Be September

You got it

57497479
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 21 2003 11:56 AM
Re: It Must Be September



LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 21 2003 01:18 PM
September Remember

Never forget to remember ..

Bobbi


AlexK
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 21 2003 02:55 PM
gulf bouy observations

The highest wind gust I found was around 30 mph, and the lowest current pressure around 29.85 It doesnt look like anything is happening quickly


AlexK
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 21 2003 05:34 PM
Gulf stuff

Pressures seem to be falling, but the lowest I've found is around 1009. Highest sustained wind around 32. Still pretty disorganized

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 21 2003 06:24 PM
Re: It Must Be September

I'm putting together a special section on Isabel, and am looking for any photos or digital video clips you may have. I've got my own photos I took, but a larger story will be made from it.

email me at mike@flhurricane.com with the photos, stories, or anything of that nature.

I still am without power so It'll be a while. Thanks all.


Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 21 2003 06:40 PM
Re: That GOM disturbed weather

Looks really wild. I have rarely seen a formation like that. I guess the wind blowing it around makes it look sort of like Halloweenish.
The pressures that were referred to in the earlier posts, was that in reference to the GOM or to Isabel remnants or the storm out around P.R.?


AlexK
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 21 2003 07:00 PM
Pressures and wind

They were for the gulf

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 21 2003 08:05 PM
clouds in the gulf

look like a curtain of "nasty"

cant say anything looks too favorable...suppose give it a few days to make proper transition from effects on air flow from Isabel

noticed in the past sometimes is like it all has to settle back down a bit out there after a big Cane


57497479
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 21 2003 08:20 PM
Re: clouds in the gulf

Agree with your thoughts there Bobbi, after a Cat2,3,4,and 5 has terrorized the Atlantic, I would say that the basin could use a little chill time to get itself back together again! She was for sure a wicked woman!!

AlexK
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Sep 21 2003 09:59 PM
new tropical wave

It looks like the first decent wave since TD14 is coming off Africa tonight

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 21 2003 10:28 PM
gonna look Alex but

you better not be teasing us here or I'll be very upset...imagine is the same nice looking wave that was over Africa the other day

... looking...hope its there


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 21 2003 10:56 PM
the Wave is there...

but where is its center..seems to have two centers of deep reds...one high, and one low

which is it?

looks nice tho
thanks


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 21 2003 11:04 PM
Re: the Wave is there...

The next two weeks will be a perfect time for the tropics to take a rest. My Cruise to the Bahamas is just a week away and I'd like to be able to go

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Sep 21 2003 11:37 PM
Re: the Wave is there...

Hey all, have a family member fallen ill so we have to get on the road north. Since I have to leave the GOM will probably bust wide open! Anyway keep it covered and I will check in when we return.

Coop


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 22 2003 02:53 AM
Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

Anyone notice Arizona is about to get hit with Hurricane Marty? Looks like it should still have some decent winds when it comes up from Mexico. I'm assuming Arizona isn't use to getting that amount of water. It's very strange how if a tropical depression is about to hit Honduras we're all interested in it...but when a decent hurricane is about to hit Arizona we couldn't care less, as it formed in a different ocean

57497479
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 22 2003 05:23 AM
Re: the Wave is there...

Hey, I offically put the GOM on hold until you get back! Go TCB Coop an check in when you can.

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 22 2003 08:11 AM
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

What will be left of Marty when (if) it reaches the SW US is going to be far from a "decent hurricane". The system will be dissipating and will just produce some rain (possibly some gusty winds)....but certainly nothing close to hurricane conditions.

Lou


Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 22 2003 08:39 AM
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

Hey Domino,

I don't think that people don't care if AZ gets hit by a "decent" hurricane, but I don't think it will. By the time Marty travels that far north, it probably won't be Marty anymore. Most likely be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression.

Btw, I have never known a hurricane to enter AZ. Something to research. Have a good one.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 22 2003 08:53 AM
Re: Hurricane Marty ....dont think you guys get it here

Maybe most of you have never lived in the deep SW as this is mostly an of Florida interest board but any amount of Tropical Rains in the ARIZONA area with any wind added in is going to cause some level of chaos. They don't need torrential rains with hurricane force winds for them to have flooding problems... small ravines or even dips in the desert that never flood given even a small amount of tropical moisture can create life threatening events and I imagine... a fun day for kids who rarely see that much moisture unless some wayward storm forgets to travel west into the Pacific.

Arizona..is NOT supposed to get Tropical moisture of any kind.. except in this situation..

Secondly, think its interesting that this is the second storm this year to insist on moving towards the East and not West (maybe more..Im not a big Pacific tracker) and anything that wreaks of a "trend" should be paid attention to by all of us over in this ocean... makes you wonder what is going on that is causing that...

I mean it caught my attention.

No... I thought it was very interesting, just didn't comment on it but I noticed and I wondered..

Just like to every season ... to every place they have their own weather and tropical moisture moving anywhere near Arizona should be watched by hobbiests of weather and they should be making you wonder.

As for that "Gale Center" ummmmnnnn sort of big, wish that thing down by PR would do "something" and if persistence is the key... load the long Orca loop I love and you will see what persists is the area in the gulf.. off tex/mex coast..hangs there and doesnt disappate... nice wave off of Africa

good luck cooper, bobbi


HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Sep 22 2003 09:01 AM
marty, dead atlantic

very outside chance it will be a tropical storm when it gets there.. more likely a tropical depression or remnant low.
occasionally those eastpac systems take the forefront, but marty isn't going to have much left when it gets up into the southwest.
nothing on the horizon in the atlantic. big canadian highs descending may create that pattern that leads to development in the western caribbean before too much longer, but as of yet there are no model specifics. western gulf system is becoming frontally associated, atlantic waves sputtering and not developing.
september is stacking up to have been fairly inactive overall, in spite of the two large hurricanes that were active this month. granted it isn't over.. but if only two named storms end up having formed this month, it will have been the quietest september since 1996. usually though, slow here means active october.
HF 1301z22september


HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Sep 22 2003 09:03 AM
Re: marty, dead atlantic

let me rephrase that: 1997. september 1997 featured only erika, it was about as dead as they come.
HF 1303z22september


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 22 2003 09:58 AM
1997 slow season

Yeah... was slow but was a great summer online.. more posts on the old Hurricane History Board on AOL that summer than the most active years in history.

It was a breather... after 95/96 I suppose it was needed.

Read Bastardi.. suppose its very probable what he says re: next week being active in Atlantic/Carib.. hope he is right.

Where was Bastardi in 97, inquiring minds want to know


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 22 2003 10:07 AM
Re: 1997 slow season

A question for those who pay more attention to history then I guess I do when it comes to Hurricane and climatology. It seems to me that after a large intense storm forms in the ATL, that a period of quiet follows where it relates to Tropical Storm formation. Was this true after Andrew? Hugo? Gilbert? I won't throw in Mitch because it was a late season storm anyway.

I agree with you Lois that there are features in both the ATL and GOM that have been persistent. A couple more days hanging there and you would think things would work to the surface with one of those features and I have been hearing that conditions are suppose to become more favorable for deveolpment by late this week to early next.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts!


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 22 2003 11:08 AM
Re: 1997 slow season

>>is about to hit Arizona we couldn't care less, as it formed in a different ocean.

Uhm. It DID form in a different ocean .

As to future threats, here are a few JB notes from today:

>>So the call here is more west a track than TPC through the Southwest and up into Nevada by Friday morning. Whether we get the rare event of a tropical storm into the desert of Arizona is still tough to call, but this has a shot at coming right up the Gulf of California and over water.

>>Tropics: The Gulf is where the unsettled weather will be over the next 10-15 days. The idea is the last high has the best chance to spawn a storm behind it as the trof lifts out, the flow flattens and pulls northward after the 1st, and a piece of the trof splits off. Perpetual low pressure will remain over the southern and central Gulf over the next 10 days, so it has to be watched. The development of the Atlantic ridge farther east over the central Atlantic will increase easterlies into the deep Tropics, which is the kiss of death for tropical cyclones in the early part of the year, but not now. Why? Because of pressure changes in the means over South America. The point is that the Atlantic is quiet now, but it may not be next weekend at this time (make that Atlantic or Caribbean.)


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 22 2003 02:22 PM
More Photos





More Isabel Photos


Storm Cooper
(User)
Mon Sep 22 2003 05:26 PM
Re: More Photos

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 26.7N 58.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.09.2003 26.7N 58.0W WEAK

00UTC 24.09.2003 27.5N 57.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.09.2003 27.8N 56.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.09.2003 28.0N 56.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.09.2003 28.1N 55.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.09.2003 28.1N 55.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.09.2003 28.9N 55.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.09.2003 29.7N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.09.2003 31.2N 55.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 28.09.2003 32.0N 55.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.09.2003 32.7N 55.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

Got to get going now.. later!


AlexK
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 22 2003 05:45 PM
experimental forcast

The upper level winds dont look to favorable there, but its as active as anwhere else in the basin right now

stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 22 2003 06:55 PM
Re: experimental forcast

Aren't the Tropics amazing? We go from not a sniff of development to a possible TS (provided by experimental models I understand) within 24 hours.

Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 22 2003 08:37 PM
Re: experimental forcast

Still a lot of shear over that area, if it does develop it'll be a fish. Still waiting to see what happens in the GOM, some of our local mets down here are saying a surface low may develop and track ene over FL.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 22 2003 09:37 PM
Re: More Photos

love the photo of the ship Mike...thanks, beautiful

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Sep 22 2003 10:22 PM
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

Your answer is in the Hurricane History forum. Tropical cyclones in the desert southwest are uncommon but they do occur. Two inches of rain in southern Arizona is like ten inches of rain in Florida. The dry arroyos fill up rapidly and flash flooding occurs. Arizona has had a couple of hurricanes (would you believe it - so has New Mexico).
Cheers,
ED


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 23 2003 09:37 AM
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

There was a Steve out there years back who used to track hurricanes on the old Hurricane History board, cant remember his name but bet he would love it. Not sure the moisture will make it up there but its interesting that both storms went so far inland.

Wondering what comes next out there..neutral or El Nino?


Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 23 2003 09:54 AM
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

What Hurricanes Mike? I looked and could not find any evidence of any strikes on Arizona. Would be interesting reading.

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 23 2003 12:49 PM
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

Arizona Tropical Storm Impacts - article:

http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/articles/tropical_Aug2002.pdf


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 23 2003 01:49 PM
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

Tropical Storms Affecting Arizona:
August, 1906 ... A tropical cyclone tracked north/northwestward across the Gulf of California into the southwestern states generating rainfall of up to five inches in the deserts and southern mountains of southern California on the 18th and 19th.
September, 1939... The remnants of a hurricane tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into southwest Arizona generating rainfall of up to seven inches in the southern mountains and southern and eastern deserts of Southern California on the 4th through 7th with the heaviest rain on the 5th and 6th.
September, 1939…The remnants of a second tropical cyclone tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into southwest Arizona.
July, 1954... A northward moving hurricane made landfall in central Baja California with the remnants moving into Arizona.
October, 1972... Hurricane Joanne recurved making landfall in northern Baja California and maintaining tropical storm strength into Arizona.
September, 1976... North/northwestward moving Hurricane Kathleen made landfall in northern Baja California with the remnants moving into southern California. Hurricane Kathleen brought to the Southwest the highest sustained winds ever associated with an Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 57 mph at Yuma on the 10th.
October, 1977... Hurricane Heather recurved with the remnants tracking across northern Baja California into Arizona.
September, 1982… Remnants of Hurricane Norman tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into Arizona with scattered rainfall amounts up to one inch in the southern mountains and deserts of southern California on the 17th and 18th.


HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Sep 23 2003 01:52 PM
mjo says...

good mjo negative wave coming into the north atlantic basin... things should start tripping of during the next few days. considering time of year, the sw caribbean and central atlantic should be the areas to watch. it's late for the far eastern atlantic.
by the way, a big canadian high is forecast to drive down to the gulf coast in the next week... should be our first cool fall air mass to penetrate south.. western gulf strike probs drop off after such an event.
HF 1752z23september


Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 23 2003 04:03 PM
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

Looking for hurricanes which have struck AZ, not Tropical storms.

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 23 2003 04:11 PM
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

I know. I couldn't find any. Pretty sure there never were any full strength hurricanes to hit 'Zona. Closest might have been Kathleen with sustained winds of 57.

Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 23 2003 05:35 PM
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

Thanks Phil...I couldn't find any either...

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Tue Sep 23 2003 07:47 PM
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)

Good discussion - which prompted me to take a look at a couple of other storms. The UNISYS Best Track data shows that Hurricane #11 in 1958 and Hurricane Katrina in 1967 were still at hurricane strength in Arizona so I went back and looked at the NHC position data for those storms. The 1958 hurricane was listed at hurricane strength (75kts) throughout the entire life span of the storm, so throw that one out as bad data. Hurricane Katrina in 1967 was a 75 knot hurricane at 31.9N 114.6W on September 2nd at 12Z. Six hours later the storm was in Arizona but it had weakened to a 45 knot tropical storm (and 6 hours after that, it was gone). The debate centers of whether it was still a 65 knot hurricane when it crossed the border into Arizona - perhaps, but not likely - no reporting stations to confirm it one way or the other.
Cheers,
ED


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 23 2003 09:38 PM
Objective (!) look at my seasonal forecast to date:

>>14/8/4

The initial 14/8/4 appears to be La Nina influenced. I jumped the gun like 90% of the rest of weather fans. I'm not sure where we end up, because I think at least 3 more named storms are in the offing. I think we're at 9/5/2, though we technically could be as high as 10/6/3 with the appropriate recon information.

>>This year it's more wide open. Landfalls could occur between 80-97W depending on relative conditions at the time the storms are in the area.

So far so good on the open US Coast, as hits have come from Texas to North Carolina.

>> I'm predicting a minimum of 5 named storms in some part of the Gulf of Mexico.

Check - Bill, Claudette, Erika, Grace, Henri

>>We could see as many as 6 or 7 landfalls this year.

Check - Bill, Grace, Claudette, Grace, Henri (double hit not verified by NHC), Isabel (TD #7)

>>I'll go out on a limb and predict 1 hit between the Upper Mexican Coast and Corpus

Got 2 there

>>1 landfall between Corpus and New Iberia/Vermillion Bay

Got 1 there

>>2 landfalls between New Iberia and Panama City Beach

Got 1 there so far

>>1 landfall between Key West and PCB

Got 1 there (though Erika was close when she backed across the state)

>>and a landfall in SE Florida which could be a dual landfall (ala Betsy, Andrew, et al).

Still waiting for the big one in SE FL

>>The Outer Banks is always a potential target, so that goes without saying. And there's always the shot that if the Bermuda Ridge is placed just right, there could be a hit between coastal Virginia and Maine.

Got that one (including TS conditions from VA to NJ)

>>It's almost like 2003 could peak differently than what we saw in 2002 and 2001.

Check
---------------------------------------------------
There was some other fluff about the NAO and SSTA's, but we've all been watching that this year. Joe B has been singing 1985 and 1995 the last several days. He believes the season which pretty much began in the Gulf (sans April Ana), most likely will end there too. October 1985 had Juan menacing FL and LA. October 1995 had Opal. He's very high on the season finishing up with a Florida hit, so we're going to have to wait and see if/when that comes to pass. Chances are, nothing is going to get organized in the Gulf until this period of amplification is over. Chances are that the 3rd trof in the series may split and drop a piece into the south central Gulf. There will be an ULL there for the next several days as well as 3 waves feeding on in. It's a slow path to development, but one that the eastern Gulf will eventually be paying attention to IMHO.

Steve


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 23 2003 11:42 PM
Hey Bobbi...

You were wondering what the predictors for ENSO were. Here's the NCEP trending toward a moderate El Nino by July 2004.

NCEP - ENSO next 10 months

I don't have Cycloneye's list of what all the prediction offices say, but I'm going to try to find it as well.

Got it (thanks to a search for Cycloneye!):

ENSO Forecast from 8/03 - Next 8 Months

Steve


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 24 2003 04:30 AM
Hey Steve

Thank you. Looking now.. couldn't sleep for no real reason thought I'd read a bit so thanks.

My feeling is that it wants to go El Nino... just a feeling, nothing to back it up. Ok.. maybe just from observation.

Whoever said this was a neutral year I think was most correct, I know its listed as La Nina (mild) but think if you watch on a daily, weekly base there is a lot of seesawing of energy.

Thanks, will read.


57497479
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 24 2003 07:15 AM
Re: Hey Steve

Hey Guys quick post this AM, has anyone noticed the 00z CMC run? Have to say I was suprised to see how aggressive the model is at this point. Don't have time for all the runs this morning. Florida Penn. is target but certain amount of comfort in that, as the models will make their usual shifts. Bad thing though if it does materialize someone is goin to feel some heat. Catch ya later, have a good one!

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 24 2003 08:34 AM
Yeah...Bastardi has been screaming Florida all summer

Seems the place to look right now..

Notice the area south of Cuba has sort of congealed a bit into a round ball...maybe just a temporary illusion or a trend.

Which is it?


andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 09:55 AM
Re: Yeah...Bastardi has been screaming Florida all summer

on the psu site i use for the models the only 2 that are current are the cmc and the gfl.(and it focuses on marty) does anyone have a site that hass all the current ones? the cmc sure has a wet windy monday for naples/tampa

Beach
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 24 2003 10:06 AM
Re: It Must Be September

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

I think the thunderstorms passing 50W / 15N might be interesting 3-4 days down the road.
Note:, it has been surrounded by really dry air for the last couple of days, but still is increasing in thunderstorm activity.
any thoughts...


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 10:25 AM
Re: It Must Be September

Watching convection building at 13n 78w. It is by no means a persistent formation but interesting in light of the latest runs of the AVN and CMC showing some type of development in that area.

As for the W. ATL and points east, the old Saharan Tropical System Killing dust has been prominent.


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 24 2003 10:34 AM
Andi...

NCEP has most of the US generated models, and then independentwx.com has a link to most of the other models from their "Atlantic Basin" link. Also, Unisys has their fair share as well.
------------------------------------------------------
I agree with Bobbi on the potential for Florida. Something's probably going to happen this weekend (per ECMWF, CMC) but it's not going to be 'the' big-ticket item. There's either gonna be a deep tropical flow setup or maybe a TD or TS.

There's also a chance (per Joe B) that the Canadian Maritimes could see some tropical action via the mass sitting out in the western Atlantic. Let me see if he's got anything on his site.
-------------------------------------------------------
TROPICS: TWO POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS First, our friends in Bermuda and in the Canadian Maritimes should keep a close watch on the cluster of thunderstorms about 200 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. This is one of these conversion systems that may become tropical. The Atlantic ridge and its feedback warmth is serving to trap the system, and it may just mill around slowly northward over the next three or four days waiting for the eventual move eastward by the trof to pick it up. In the wake of the Karen debacle, I cannot see why a low pressure over 85-degree water would be classified as non-tropical as, once again, the tired old purist arguments arise. I will do my part to avoid it here, except to state that Bermuda, and then maybe early next week the Maritimes, may have effects from a storm that came from the Tropics that had gales and heavy rain. Again, of most concern first is Bermuda.

The western Caribbean is the next problem spot. Once again, the instant look may not be favorable, but the pattern rapidly improves overall over the next four days as a strong trof in the means near 90 west ventilates this area in the means. The call is for low pressure to develop Friday over the northwest Caribbean, then take aim on Florida this weekend. Crucial questions as to how strong it will get I cannot answer now, except to say there is a tropical storm or hurricane concern by me this weekend for you folks there. Of course, I may be jumping too early given my stated position, but consider the following: the subtropical ridge is suppressed to near 20 north to the east, so it's not likely this just proceeds eastward, but will instead come northward. The water is warm there, and the season is late. It fits with the overall pattern for both the 90 west trof that develops and something we will be watching for the rest of the season. At the very least, this will enhance rainfall over an area that doesn't need it.
-----------------------------------------------------
Time to watch the Tropical Update.

Steve


troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 11:29 AM
South of Cuba

sat image for the area just south of Cuba

here is a link to a loop right here


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 24 2003 11:34 AM
Re: South of Cuba

>>here is a link to a loop right here.

Classic. "I gotcho loop, /rite hea'/."

You can see the trof split to the west building a ridge overtop of that blob of convection. As noted on Joe B's tropical update, it's not the pattern itself, but the change in the pattern preceeding this development. If it cranks, I could see a 60mph TS down the road for Monday, but I ain't making that call yet. The Canadian is VERY BULLISH on the system, European much slower (time and intensity).

Steve


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 11:39 AM
Re: South of Cuba

It appears from the 11am Update that we weren't grasping at straws....

Tropical Weather Outlook

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 241507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EITHER TROPICAL OR NON-TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.




troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 11:49 AM
Re: South of Cuba

>>Classic. "I gotcho loop, /rite hea'/."




LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 24 2003 11:50 AM
wave out there

Noticed it yesterday, sort of amazed at its tenacity to seem to want to survive despite such dry conditions.

Things like that always catch my attention but its got to twist, is it twisting..that's the question.

Watching the Carib a bit, heard the Canadian could be accused of working for Bastardi


Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 12:34 PM
Re: wet Fla. weekend?

From JB's commentary this morning:

Another area to watch, as far as tropical development, is the western Caribbean. There is nothing well organized at this time; however, there is a cluster of thunderstorms off the Central American coast. However, with the trough axis over the Tennessee-Ohio Valley-Great Lakes region, that leaves room for lowering of surface pressure in the western Caribbean later this week, and room for that tropical moisture to be drawn northward. It remains to be seen whether or not an actual strong, well-organized tropical low comes out of this; at the very least, Florida should be quite wet this weekend.

TG


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Sep 24 2003 01:19 PM
Re: wet Fla. weekend?

yep. pattern induced, late season stuff starting up. with the ebb and flow of the pattern over north america we should be able to spot these potential areas well.. so here comes the slow evolution regime where we have global models hinting at tropical lows, and dynamic models forecasting major hurricanes in the caribbean.
just recall that chart of recent activity i put up a few days ago.. this may be a historical source area for big weather events in florida, but in recent years very little has evolved from them and made headlines.
note that there is that potential system near bermuda (bastardi already said the majic phrase 'karen', as if bermuda needs another lick this season), and that east atlantic wave (late in the season for development out there, it will probably come across and develop later rather than get going way out there).
HF 1720z24september


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 24 2003 01:42 PM
Telekineesis and the 2 areas of convection

Well...however you spell that word that Bastardi is always throwing around...

Has anyone noticed the connection between the two areas that are currently convecting and spinning a bit..they seem to be blowing up and convecting in tandem and both have developed a signature of curvature.. Atlantic off of Florida Coast..way out and Carib and there seems to be some connection in ways between the two that I am sure someone could explain better.

But anyone can see it


Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 01:55 PM
Re: 98L

New Invest 98L just posted.

TG


LI Phil
(User)
Wed Sep 24 2003 02:29 PM
Re: 98L

That is for the area south east of Bermuda?

Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 02:36 PM
Re: 98L

It's the area sw of the CV islands around 11N Lat., looks like we may have another long tracker developing.

TG


LI Phil
(User)
Wed Sep 24 2003 02:41 PM
Re: 98L

Thanks. I go to the NRL Monterey Tropical site, but I am unsure where to look on there for coordinates. Where do you get your info which lists coords? Thanks again.

Tropics Guy
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 02:50 PM
Re: 98L

Don't see any coordinates posted, but zooming in on the Satellite pics, the center of rotation seems to be around 11N 34W. It's in a dry air environment but seems to be developing
TG


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 03:24 PM
Re: 98L

I thought the first Invest would be the Bermuda area. The enviroment ahead of 98L is not suppose to be very good.

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 24 2003 04:20 PM
Back

Sorry for not having been around during Isabel's grand entrance on this East Coast (what?!?!?!?!!?!?! A storm actually hit the East Coast!?!?!?!?! ). The high school work and think monster is chasing me around....which is okay.

Three areas of interest...eins....zwei...drei.

98L CV wave looks pretty good right, and it is holding it's own especially considering the dry air around it. My forecast=slow development.

Caribbean disturbed weather...new, needs to show persistence to impress me.

Low pressure area south of Bermuda...non-tropical, won't affect anyone...u get the picture.

The short-take


Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 05:28 PM
Wet weekend in S. Fla.?

From the 245 pm Miami National Weather Service discussion:

FOR THE WEEKDEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT'LL BE WET. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN CONCERNING THE POSSIBILITY OF
THE LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR SHOWING WEAK CLOSED LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THE UKMET ALSO SHOWS A WEAK LOW IN THE
AREA...MAINLY OFF THE EAST COAST. THE CANADIAN GEM ON THE OTHER HAND IS
MOST BULLISH...PUTTING A 991 MB LOW ACROSS S. FLORIDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION IS THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH DECENT TROPICAL MOISTURE. CONSEQUENTLY
WILL EXTEND THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SOME DRYING THEREAFTER THROUGH MID WEEK IN
ALL BUT SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRING DRIER
AIR THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 24 2003 05:29 PM
Isn't it funny?

Yesterday and the day before the whole basin looked as unfriendly as it could be and today we are watching 3 different areas.

Invest pops up and we were all looking elsewhere.

Were we all forgetting that this is almost peak week in the tropics or a day or two off.

Imagine many a storm came in on Sept 24th over time.

Seems we aren't finished yet this year.

Invest looks nice.


LI Phil
(User)
Wed Sep 24 2003 05:38 PM
5:30 TWO

Two of the three systems mentioned on the board have potential. The one in the Carribbean isn't forecast to develop...at least not very quickly:

"An area of disturbed weather centered about 285 miles south-southeast of Bermuda has become better organized this afternoon. Upper-level winds are marginally favorable for further development...and a tropical depression could form in the next day or two as the system moves slowly toward the north-northeast.

Showers and thunderstorms centered about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands are associated with a strong tropical wave. This system has become a little better organized today...and upper-level winds have become more favorable. Some additional development is possible during the next day or so.
A area of disturbed weather continues in the western Caribbean Sea-between Colombia and Jamaica. This system is currently disorganized but upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for slow development during the next few days.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday."


Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 24 2003 06:48 PM
98L

That one is of my interest because of the area where I am and I know it wont be a fish because of the low latitud that it is.But will it develop as it is going to fight some shear but more important dry air.I haven't seen so far the models what they are saying about this system but if someone has them please post.

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Sep 24 2003 06:52 PM
two now

the 28th and 29th invests of the season are currently in the southeastern north atlantic and waters near bermuda, respectively. the former is far east for this time of year and will probably need to get much further to the west to do any real developing... the latter is forecast to slowly work its way northward towards the canadian maritimes over the next few days.
there is enough model support calling for low pressure in the caribbean to take it seriously, as such a system would pose a more immediate threat. likely have one, maybe two... outside possibility of three classified systems evolve by early next week.
HF 2252z24september


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Sep 24 2003 06:54 PM
Re: 98L

cycloneye.. this late in the year, systems forming out there do tend to turn up. if it develops out at say, 40-45w, it will more than likely recurve well east of you. if its down near 55w doing the same thing this weekend.. well, then you may have a problem.
HF 2254z24september


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Sep 24 2003 06:57 PM
mjo

the september 23rd mjo graphic shows it in the basin. amazing how much of an effect it can have.

islander
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 24 2003 08:09 PM
Re: 98L

Unbelievable...yesterday at this time we had nothing to look at and now "upper level winds are (or will be) favorable" for anything. As with Cycloneye, my main concern is 98L, though I have the feeling it won't survive its surroundings.

Let's just keep an eye...

MikeC: OK, I'm a member now. Hope to keep learning from these people as my scarce time allows me


57497479
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 25 2003 06:09 AM
Re: 98L

Good morning guys! Well after yesterdays little feeding frenzy (actually more like a snack) of new possibilities, everything seems to be in extra slow mode again. Pretty bad when you fall asleep sitting in front of the computer. Keep telling myself that patience is a virture. Waiting and watching, come on you day time posters, I need more to read when I get home from work!

SunNFun
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Sep 25 2003 07:58 AM
Pensacola.. in the Gulf..

Seems to be an area of disturbance forming pretty rapidly in the Gulf south of Pensacola.. anyone have a feel on it?

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 25 2003 08:37 AM
Re: Pensacola.. in the Gulf..

Didnt even notice...had to go back and take a second look.. my eyes were looking elsewhere (sorry ..down here in south florida i don't look up north that way much)

Yeah..interesting, more so as a steering dynamic for the whole area more than development, very close in..

Think if that little bubble of convection that has made it across the dry air gets into the right spot it could do something..just east of the islands.

Like the Carib..incubation period tho...spiraling pinwheel low pressure needs to get over warm water.

Wave... well... hard to look at the following link and not have your heart race just a drop and think...wow..whats that?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

good day all, yep..real busy
listening to johnny cash this morning, is it just me or are others? wondering


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 25 2003 09:43 AM
Re: Pensacola.. in the Gulf..

That was mentioned on TWC this morning as an area to watch. Things can develop quickly in the GoM but it is close to land. Bears some watching.

HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Sep 25 2003 10:02 AM
thursday morning

the NE gulf... there was a low forecast to develop close in down there by some model the other day. maybe it was more than one, i don't know.. but interesting to see.
we have to invests that are much more real development possibilities at the moment.
the system southeast of bermuda is getting a subtropical rating of 1.5. if it gets any better organized (models forecast at least steady persistance, most develop it).. it will probably be rated subtropical. thats 99L.
98L is plugging along westward, looks more concentrated this morning. 1.0 d rating. it's still oriented somewhat SW-NE, but less tilted than yesterday. less model enthusiasm about development here.. so this will evolve slow if at all.
the caribbean area still lacks definition, not one of those broad low pressure areas yet.. no total model agreement on this.. but enough evidence to take it as a serious possibility.
so, looks like one is going for sure, another is probably going.. a third is still in the air.. and anything else is not apparent yet. after how dead things became when isabel was in town, i was doubting we'd make the seasonal quotas.. but enter mjo and anything seems possible again.
HF 1402z25september


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 25 2003 10:35 AM
99 looks sort of like a done deal

Whether will be ST or Tropical..time will tell but looks like we will have advisories on it soon.

As for the wave...I can hear a lot of you hemming and hawing from work today... can see your nit picking complaints but all things considered... looks better than most CV waves we have had so far and think it will maintain and develop to some level. Wouldn't count it out despite its appearance that seems to be missing some "oomphf"



HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Sep 25 2003 10:44 AM
Re: 99 looks sort of like a done deal

yep, 15L noname on nrl. with the new convention it gets a name regardless if winds get to gale force.. so i guess juan is finally on the way.
HF 1445z25september


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 25 2003 10:46 AM
Re: 99 looks sort of like a done deal

NRL is calling "
99L" ...."15L no-name" which I think indicates that classification is forthcoming.

I guess you type faster HanKFranK..hee, hee.


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 25 2003 10:58 AM
Re: 99 looks sort of like a done deal

>>As for the wave...I can hear a lot of you hemming and hawing from work today... can see your nit picking complaints but all things considered... looks better than most CV waves we have had so far and think it will maintain and develop to some level. Wouldn't count it out despite its appearance that seems to be missing some "oomphf"<<

Whose a "hemmin" and whose a "hawwin"? I agree! It has a well defined twist and has some convection that just needs to concentrate. There is not serious dry air ahead and I don't see shear developing until closer to the Antilles. The only thing going against it may be climatology and the fact that soon to be Juan's outflow could produce some shearing elements.

That area in the Gulf continues to grow. I haven't seen any pressure readings from that area but it is interesting. Need input....I guess I best go study before I comment anymore.


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Sep 25 2003 11:03 AM
TD 15

Well, we got TD 15; the system south east of Bermuda. Could have some affect on Nova Scotia down the road...

"after a long and difficult debate to determine the structure of the cyclone...tropical or subtropical....the area of disturbed weather southeast of Bermuda is being designated as Tropical Depression Fifteen. There are no clear cut signals and we could have gone tropical or subtropical at this time. The cyclone is still somewhat attached to a frontal zone but at the same time...it has enough convection near the center. In addition...the lastest amsu data show a weak warm core at the mid to upper-levels suggesting that the cyclone is on its way to become more tropical. Slow strengthening is indicated before the system moves over cool waters and becomes extratropical in 4 days.

The depression appears to be moving slowly toward the northeast. However...a developing subtropical ridge to the east of the cyclone will force the system to move on a general northward track for the next 3 to 4 days. This is consistent with the GFDL and the GFS.
Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/1500z 29.5n 61.0w 30 kt
12hr VT 26/0000z 30.5n 61.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/1200z 32.0n 61.0w 45 kt
36hr VT 27/0000z 33.5n 61.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 27/1200z 35.0n 62.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 28/1200z 40.0n 63.2w 55 kt
96hr VT 29/1200z 46.0n 62.0w 55 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 30/1200z...absorbed"



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