Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Oct 31 2003 08:18 PM
Nicholas Revisited

The stubborn swirl that just wouldn't go away! After taking a slow grand tour of a good portion of the mid Atlantic real estate over the past couple of weeks, the remnants of Nicholas are still hanging on - and perhaps heading toward south Florida. The remnant low is quite weak but it persists - other more significant swirls have withered quickly...but not Nicholas.

Models, both tropical and global, have been remarkably consistent over the past few days in maintaining this system and moving it southwestward in the short term and westward in the mid term toward Florida - anywhere from the mid peninsula south to the Straits. Over the past 24 hours the Nicholas low level swirl has been in a rather tight anticyclonic loop. The low seems to have completed the loop and is now moving slowly southwestward. Some of the models keep a slow movement for yet another 24 hours before moving it rapidly toward south Florida.

Upper-level southwesterly shear has kept the convection well removed to the northeast of the center. Building high pressure to the north of the low should relax the shear by Saturday evening. The system will be heading into warmer waters so the intensification factor cannot be ignored. SHIPS has varied between 45 and 55 knots for the past couple of days. If the convection does not build back into the core, the low will remain a hybrid system, but a hybrid subtropical storm is not out of the question. Even if it is not reclassified, the pressure gradient will continue gusty northeast to east winds over the Florida east coast late Sunday through Monday. Regarding reclassification, if it does regain Depression status, I think that the name will again be Nicholas, especially since NRL Monterey has it on their board again as Nicholas.

What a long and interesting season this has been - I think that everyone (myself included) was worn out a few weeks ago. But we've had some rest and now we've got something old to re-watch this weekend.
ED


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


k___g
(Weather Guru)
Fri Oct 31 2003 08:48 PM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

At a minimum, we have something to watch this weekend.......should be quite interesting........

57497479
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 01 2003 06:57 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

The area doesn't look all that chipper this morning, but never the less there is a certain amount of excitement with this system as we wait to see how all the potientals pan out!!

javlin
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 01 2003 09:34 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

The cloud cover seems though as if it is tring to wrap around this morning.The LLc still visible but a healthy spin.The overall movement looks to the W though with a slight jog N maybe hard to discern.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Nov 01 2003 06:27 PM
Nicholas Again?

I was going to post this in the Storm Forum but decided that the Main Page would be a better place. Sometimes the tenacity of Cape Verde systems just amazes me. After looking rather poorly this morning, the remnant circulation of Nicholas is looking quite healthy this evening.

The circulation moved northward during the morning and has since taken a turn to the west this afternoon. Convection is rapidly refiring to the north of the center - and close to it - and a Tropical Depression seems likely in another 12 hours or less if the convection can hold. The southwesterly shear is rapidly on the decline, with less impact as the storm moves to the west. Estimated central pressure has dropped 3mb during the day and is now at 1005mb.

Movement should continue to the west or west southwest with a continual increase in forward speed. Of all of the models, the CMC seems to be doing rather well with this system. With consideration for todays northward jog, a forecast track over south Florida, rather than the Straits of Florida, seems likely. Landfall likely on Monday morning - perhaps as a strong Tropical Storm.

With a deepening storm and a high to the north, a healthy pressure gradient could give the Florida east coast strong winds from the landfall point northward to at least Daytona Beach. Rain squalls likely on Monday across the southern half of the peninsula with strong and gusty east to southeasterly winds.

The storm crosses the peninsula on Monday and heads for the Mississippi/Alabama coastal area on Wednesday. All of the above assumes continued development tonight and Sunday. The potential certainly exists for a highly uncommon Tropical Storm from the east in November. Another unusual chapter in a very unusual season.
Cheers,
ED


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Sat Nov 01 2003 07:07 PM
Re: Nicholas Again?

Hey guys,
Ed, i agree with your thoughts on this one! Certainly has been persistent, and i think that is the key to its future. I reckon we will see this become either a Subtropical or Tropical Storm on Sunday, heading west-southwest. A brush with the Northern Bahamas seems on the cards, before landfall on Monday afternoon along the Florida east coast, probably as a 50 or 55 mph storm. It should stay intact as it crosses the peninsula to arrive over the Gulf of Mexico in the small hours of Tuesday morning, probably weakening to Depression or minimal Storm status by that time. Thereafter, i have no idea on where it will go!

This has indeed been the most odd season i can remember, and this cyclone is yet another example of that.

Regards


Steve H.
(Registered User)
Sat Nov 01 2003 08:00 PM
Re: Nicholas Again?

Seems to be moving west at the moment. Hey Ed do you think this circulation is taking on warm core characteristics. The thunderstorm buildup would make one believe so. Like you said, lets see if it continues. Trying to discern the location of the center. Looking at the Dvorak loop, seems the center is just south of the convection, but hard to tell. The southern extent seems completely void of convection, and probably has only scattered low clouds. This thing could come in near Stuart unless it veers quite strongly to the SW. Hard to tell if this convection is passing or catching fire. Seems like the spark is in the circulation center though, as you can see the rotation within the convection. May have to bring in loose items from outside tomorrow if this keeps up! Cheers!!

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 01 2003 08:11 PM
A storm for Florida?

Where is everyone? Wake up people!!! We may have a storm bearing down on Florida in 24 hours. We have had a few squalls pass through this evening coming in off the Atlantic from the NE. Winds have peaked at 29 mph at my house.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sat Nov 01 2003 09:49 PM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

Give it at least 48 hrs. We still have some action left....after this I will let it go until next season

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Nov 01 2003 10:28 PM
We're watching

I'm watching.... Actually watching some show called Devils Winds... lots of storm talk.

Love the weather, can't take it seriously in ways. Odd, I mean hard to beleive a named storm might be out there in 24 hours or a bit more and no one is really talking about it, except the rain and strong winds which everyone says is the pressure gradient, people were talking about the pressure gradient all day round here.

Reading all of you and enjoying your posts, thanks for keeping us informed.

I'm just watching this one... do we call this one Nicholas Sr. or Nicholas Jr.??

nice to see you all back richie, steve and ed


57497479
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 01 2003 11:09 PM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

Hey Coop, what a difference a few hours make. Just got home so I have not looked at the sat loops, just read everyones post. Sounds like the tropics will treat us with a little action before it shuts down for a while. Let's see what it's got in store for us!! This season should go out with a bang, just doesn't seem right if it doesn't. Hey Bobbi, looks like you get some more rain again!!!

SunNFun
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Nov 01 2003 11:33 PM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

GFS loops suggest little more than a some rain and winds less than 25 knots for us on the west coast of FL.. looks like most models want to keep it south of the Tampa area.. I might be wrong but it looks like it will speed across into the warmer Gulf and head NW towards TX or LA..

Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Sat Nov 01 2003 11:37 PM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

It is hard to get very excited about that feature in the Atlantic. We had a storm come through Central Florida last week that had a few tornado warnings with it. It looked more threatening on Satellite than this one does at this time. Does any one here think that this feature( Ole Nick) will get more convection than it has now?

57497479
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 02 2003 12:31 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

Hey SunNFun, agree that it should stay south of Tampa Bay area. And Mary had a taste of the storm that came thru last week, stayed mostly north of me though. Looked at the sat loops and the system does look better. Now will he/she become pure tropical comming across Florida or wait until it reaches the gulf? Still may not happen even then. What's ya guys think...!!

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Nov 02 2003 02:34 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

Give it up for a November storm whether it amounts to much or not. I'm hoping to see some effects up here, but I doubt they'd be much. I don't care though even if I only get some tropical clouds to look at, it's better than nothing. South Florida ought to get some decent downpours and breezes the next couple of days. After that, I'm not sure where it goes. I was thinking east from the Wed. models and JB which was SC LA. A couple of the globals have been moving toward my thinking. If for nothing else, we don't see storms out of the SE or ESE in November. Neitherdoes Mississippi or Alabama. But obviously, the further east you go, the better the odds a storm COULD be there.

The thing that threw me off a little was when the low pressure center hedged a little north of west earlier today. Had the south component kicked in earlier, it might have been a FL Straits storm. Now I'm not sure. And since I can't tell where it's going to hit Florida, I don't know where the 2nd landfall is going to be. But in the interest of fun, early call will be hitting between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami sometime tomorrow night or early Monday (appears the forward movment has picked up FWIW). After that, I'll go with a Plaquemines Parish, LA to Mobile County, AL landfall. Gut call would be a unnamed system (maybe a TD?/STD? ) in South FL with winds around 30-40 and perhaps a 45-50mph TS at northern Gulf landfall (and weakening) maybe Wed. morning.

One of many alternative scenarios would be for a very weak system moving fast E/W across the GoM and not becoming anything.

Should be a fun couple of days. If I see anything up here, you know I'll take some photos.

Oh yeah, GO SAINTS!

Steve


javlin
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 02 2003 06:51 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

Well all the models seem to like the FL/GA line now.If this should be the case I would not expect a whole lot out of this then seeing that the water temps are marginal at best out there to sustain tropical development.Have to seee how the system behaves today looks to be moving W now.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 02 2003 06:55 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

Well it seems Steve Lyons has called for remnants of Nick not to be reclassified after all. The burliest winds will affect from Fort Pierce/Port Saint Lucie area to Jacksonville.

Have a great Sunday!!


SunNFun
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Nov 02 2003 07:31 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

I personally don't see FL/GA line.. looks to me like S FL gets some 45 Kt winds and some squalls..

Interestingly, the second disturbance (is it a low?) at 23/75 seems to be wrapping back around the rear of 'ole Nick in classical cyclonic fashion.. any chance these two get together and moonlight up the Gulf?


57497479
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 02 2003 09:22 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

Yeah Steve, hard to make a 2nd landfall prediction if your unsure of the 1st. Think anyone who is calling for a S. Central or South Florida crossing should be in the ballgame. In fact the energy may help to give us 6 on the board today... Looks like you or Coop could be seeing some rain from this. Sat loops just does not look that impressive to me, still has room for a lot of improvement. Running out of time to do much before it visits Florida, after it's in the GOM maybe a chance, but going across Florida may really do a # on it.


Hey SunNFun also noticed the area you pointed out this AM. Anyone have any comments on this area....?





Oh Yeah, WE'LL SEE....!!!





Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Nov 02 2003 09:30 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

NRL....96L Invest???

57497479
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 02 2003 10:40 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

The models are all over Florida... Let's just draw a coordinate out of a hat and see what we get here. At this point still thinkin S. Central Florida. Click on This

jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Nov 02 2003 11:01 AM
FLL Conditions #1

11 AM Sunday NE FLL...

Breezy and Sunny 82 Degrees Humidity 43%.


jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Nov 02 2003 01:06 PM
Re: FLL Conditions #1

1 PM FLL Conditions

Same as 11 AM..another great day in south florida


Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Sun Nov 02 2003 01:19 PM
Re: FLL Conditions #1

We are having 3 minute showers hear in Lakeland, Fl. a few window sprinkles here and there. Some high in the trees breezes.
Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild temperatures, Summer-like without the horrendous temperatures though. I have seen the latest satellite visible and it looks as though the convection is getting its act together over the Bahamas. What is out there that would boot it toward Central Florida? The models can not be serious can they?


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 02 2003 01:25 PM
Boynton Beach Conditions

Very nice day, except winds picking up. Just had my highest wind gust hit 30 mph at 1:13 pm.

jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Nov 02 2003 01:55 PM
Re: Boynton Beach Conditions

i am at the intracoastel and commercial and we just had a gust about 35..it was much stronger than the others the past few days..just had to drop the umbrella by the pool.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 02 2003 03:07 PM
Re: FLL Conditions #1

Port St. Lucie had a massive downpour but the wind died down at 3PM. The downpour seemed to be what is customary in a tropical system's rain bands.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Nov 02 2003 04:28 PM
Re: FLL Conditions #1

Doesn't look like much of a storm.

Steve


Kevin
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 02 2003 04:44 PM
Re: FLL Conditions #1

Weather here in Central Florida is kind of windy, we've had wind gusts up to perhaps 25 miles per hour. Sky is a brilliant blue...typical pre-storm (" ") weather. Still looks likely that most of the rain will be south of my locale however.

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 02 2003 04:46 PM
Re: FLL Conditions #1

(off-topic post deleted by Moderator)

57497479
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 02 2003 04:51 PM
Re: FLL Conditions #1

Yeah Steve, the little storm out there is having it's fair share of problems today. Don't expect much now, unless it does a 360. Go to OFF-TOPIC...

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 02 2003 06:19 PM
Boynton Beach Conditions

The first squall came ashore at 5:38 pm with a wind gust at my house to 33 mph and a very heavy quick burst of rain.

Special statement from Miami:
...numerous squalls to affect south florida this evening...
a long lived low pressure system will track into south florida
from the atlantic this evening. although this system has not
undergone tropical development...it will still bring numerous
squalls with heavy rain and frequent wind gusts to 30 mph...reaching the southeast florida coast around 8 pm this evening. isolated embedded thunderstorms will also impact the area. a few of these storms could produce localized damaging gusts. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots with gusts approaching gale force will affect the atlantic coastal waters...biscayne bay...and the intracoastal waterway through the evening. in addition...mariners can expect heavy downpours...rough seas...and reduced visibility


LI Phil
(User)
Sun Nov 02 2003 08:58 PM
Kevin, Steve & Wxman Richie

Looks like you (in south FL) are getting a bit of Old Nicholas' fury. Still think they could reclassify him once he gets into the gulf tomorrow. Steve, you may get a little action...never say never this year. Wierd season, I'll say.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sun Nov 02 2003 10:06 PM
Re: Nicholas Again?

System is passing through the northern Bahamas and has not developed. Movement is to the west southwest at 25mph and should be in the GOM by sunrise on Monday. Pressure is actually up - about 1008mb. Heavy rain squalls in south Florida tonight with gusty winds along the beaches. Offshore reports of gusts to 35 knots.
Cheers,
ED


SunNFun
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Nov 03 2003 02:20 AM
Re: Nicholas Again?

2:00 am -- looks like convection is building right off Lauderdale coast as it moves WSW.. doubt it will gain much in strength as it is about 100 miles off land but it sure is getting deeper. If Nick had more time I think he would have blown up a bit more.. I guess that isn't a good sign for those that lie ahead of him up the Gulf..??

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 03 2003 05:20 AM
Storm Totals

Looks like our little storm system went right over my house in Palm Beach County overnight. My totals so far for this system are 1.36" of rain, peak wind gust 34 mph, and lowest pressure 29.74".

57497479
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 03 2003 05:50 AM
Re: Storm Totals

Good morning Richie, woke up to a nice morning at my house. A little on the breezy side, gusting to around 25 w/o rain. Hey SunNFun, bet Redington is nice this morning!! Well, look out GOM here it comes... Does anyone think there is a chance for any futher developement in the Eastern Gulf?? Have a great day guys...

javlin
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 03 2003 09:10 AM
Re: Storm Totals

Well I do not think that much will come about this system.I found one bouy at 82 degrees others were only 78>80.The movement to is very quick should be somewhere along the coast in <48hrs.This will be rainmaker only with a little wind.The one good thing is that we need the rain along the coast and the wind will take the last of these acorns off the trees.Has been a neat season,Steve you got close no cigar.

SunNFun
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Nov 03 2003 09:49 AM
Re: Storm Totals

Redington is mostly cloudy with 10 - 15 kt winds and an occaisional drizzle with tons of low lying clouds.. tide is at about 2 feet so those of us on the Intracoastal are seeing some stronger than normal wave actions against the seawall, but nothing to really write home to mom about. What is amazing is how much moisture (dew point?) returned to the air.. it is very humid here - very tropical.. I think ole Nick has TD status in mind.. just a guess..

stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 03 2003 10:37 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

Just looking at the loops and it appears Nick is moving a little SW and maybe tightening. Am I seeing this correctly?

Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Mon Nov 03 2003 10:47 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

Very Dark here in Lakeland. Breeze but no sense of air circulation.very tropical in nature. Apparently some short showers as my cat came in with water drops lightly sprinkled on her back. The feeling is that things could burst loose any minute. The satellite picture is kind of awesome close up. IT looks like something is trying to wind up right off the west coast near Ft Myers etc. (not sure about my geography there) All I know for sure is that my birds and squirrels(Pets) are looking kind of thoughtful, taking this all in and wondering whether to bury the food or dig it up. (squirrels) I am getting a dissertation from my cockateil as to the nature of things. Followed by the traditional wolf whistle.

SunNFun
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Nov 03 2003 10:49 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

I must have woke up in the eye or something at 9:30 because at almost 11 am now, the winds have really picked up - steady 25 kts and gusts to 35.. also, I see a shift of clouds moving almost due W now instead of the WSW motion earlier..

Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Mon Nov 03 2003 11:55 AM
Re: Nicholas Revisited

Brighter now than an hour ago.Still breezy. Nothing that a good old kite couldnt handle. Clouds appear to be moving from SE to Northwest.( I think) we sit kind of at an odd angle to the state and it is always messing up my sense of direction. JB got his Florida hit he was talking about. I also noticed that there is a cold front begining to loom on the Horizon I am wondering if this little fellow sits in the GOM will it be brought back to us better for having shlepped up some nice warm moist air in a very conducive environment?

Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 03 2003 02:14 PM
recon

Recon is in there now.

Pretty well-defined circulation on visible imagery, but not much convection near the center. As always, curious what the plane finds.

Didn't get much weather from this where I am, south of Miami. Some rain and breezy conditions starting around 6 or 7 last night (it was actually beautiful out) and a few minutes of distant thunder in the middle of the night, but that's it.


Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 03 2003 03:11 PM
Re: recon

I think (but am not sure) recon has left the system without producing a vortex data message. I don't think there was any west wind, and the only report of a south wind I saw was far south of the center. Maximum flight-level wind in the observations I saw (I only saw about 4 or 5) was 33 knots, from an altitude of about 340 meters at 25.8/83.7.

Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 03 2003 03:42 PM
Re: recon

I didn't see this before I posted the above:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EST MON NOV 3 2003

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH NO
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
THIS SYSTEM...AS THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Mon Nov 03 2003 04:05 PM
Re: recon

From a weather service that advises a private company on the coast of Alabama.....................


Tropical Weather Update

Low Pressure Center 100 Miles West of Sarasota, FL



Issued: 1:30PM CST Monday, November 3, 2003

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of the low is near 27.2N/84.1W at 1PM CST. Movement is to the west to west-northwest at about 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds around the center have been measured at 30-35 mph.

Reports from the recon plane confirm what we already knew from satellite and ship observations - that there is a well-defined low-level circulation center in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There are showers spiraling in toward the center of the low, but all heavy squalls are still located to the south of the low center. We're not sure whether the Hurricane Center will reclassify this low as a depression this afternoon or not. Reports from the recon plane would seem to support the reclassification of this low to a tropical depression in the next few hours, however.

But regardless of whether or not this low is classified as a depression, it will produce winds of 25-40 mph, rough seas, and occasional squalls offshore for the next 24 hours. Inland winds across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and Alabama will be about half of the offshore winds - on the order of 15-25 mph. Along the immediate Gulf coast, there could be some wind gusts of 40-50 mph in thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.

The forecast track is fairly straightforward - west to west-northwest today then northward into the northern Gulf coast between southeast Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. Our calculations put the center of the low just east of the mouth of the Mississippi around 8am CST Tuesday. By noon tomorrow, the low center should be approaching the Mississippi coast. Once inland, it will weaken very quickly. Depending upon if any significant squalls develop near the center, inland rainfall amounts could be anywhere from less than an inch to 3-4 inches.



Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Nov 03 2003 06:58 PM
Re: recon

Breck (on Fox 8) said basically that the upper level support (which is the low far to the south of the lower level circulation) has most of the energy due to some shear from the east across Florida. They put in a raindrop and questionmark for tomorrow's forecast. We're supposed to see some cloud shield and breezy conditions, but that's all. I'm still holding with a landfall between Plaq. Parish and Mobile County, but my 45-50 winds were way off. I'm not sure where the center crossed FL. I had it Miami to Ft.L I think, but the main energy was still with the ULC at that time.

Steve


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 03 2003 07:52 PM
Hey Steve

The center passed right over the West Palm Beach area. My final totals were 1.56"of rain, a 34 mph wind gust, and the lowest pressure of 29.74".

javlin
(Weather Master)
Mon Nov 03 2003 09:52 PM
Re: Hey Steve

This little system is rockin to the W fast ,seems the center is better organized but still no convection to say of.Maybe this thing might follow the A98 model if I remember right and come back.Leaves more time for development maybe,if it should slow down some.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Tue Nov 04 2003 09:33 AM
Improving satellite signature

Hey guys,
just looking at the latest visible imagery from the Gulf and it seems that this little low may actually just do something! Thunderstorm activity has increased near the centre, especially in the southern semicircle, and is continuing to slowly increase too. Might be interesting when Recon gets out there this afternoon to see if anything has formed! Looks like it on satellite though.

Regards,


javlin
(Weather Master)
Tue Nov 04 2003 09:58 AM
Re: Improving satellite signature

I'm thinking the same thing Rich.In the last couple of frames though the convection has changed some not a ball anymore.It might be a decent little wind storm for tonight .Seems the forward progress has slowed down some.

Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Nov 04 2003 10:26 AM
Re: Improving satellite signature

Latest Quickscat pass

Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Nov 04 2003 10:29 AM
Re: Improving satellite signature

Actually, the 1512 UTC quickscat showed a lot more uncontaminated (i.e., not black barbs) 20+ knot west winds south of the center.

Looks like winds have tightened up near the center, there's likely a west wind, and obviously there is more convection closer to the center. TD is still a possibility.


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Nov 04 2003 10:45 AM
Re: Improving satellite signature

Nothing happening here today. It's cloudy, but no showers moved in yet. Radar shows some stuff south of MS and east of SE LA, but nothing in town yet. 5mph breeze

Steve


SunNFun
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Nov 04 2003 11:17 AM
Re: Improving satellite signature

A friend of mine just came in from the GOM and he said he encountered 35 mph winds and some thunder.. it must be picking up steam.. the loops seem to show the center has slowed its N pathway.. if it sits there too long, I wonder if the Low over Texas will push ole Nick right back at Florida? Hmm..

javlin
(Weather Master)
Tue Nov 04 2003 11:56 AM
Re: Improving satellite signature

I think that possibility will be slim at best hope I'm wrong.The convection is backing off the center again.The flaoter has been reposition in the last 1 1/2 hrs.The pictures are much better than earlier this morning.I was hoping for some good wind sto take all these damn acorns down once and for all this season.

Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Nov 04 2003 12:39 PM
Re: Improving satellite signature

Not surprisingly, recon found a westward component to the wind near the low pressure center.

However, no vortex data message yet, and, as javlin noted, the convection certainly has waned and been blown far from the center.


Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Nov 04 2003 01:06 PM
Vortex data message


URNT12 KNHC 041722
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 04/1722Z
B. 28 DEG 05 MIN N
88 DEG 11 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 042 DEG 35 NM
F. 140 DEG 38 KT
G. 048 DEG 035 NM
H. EXTRAP 1008 MB
I. 24 C/ 324 M
J. 24 C/ 321 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/01
O. 0.1/6.0 NM
P. AF861 02HHA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 38 KT NE QUAD 1709Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Nov 04 2003 03:23 PM
Re: Vortex data message

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2003

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 30-35 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND WELL-REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE LOW IS NOW MOVING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND SOMETIME
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND IN STATEMENTS
ISSUES BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Nov 04 2003 03:25 PM
Second vortex data message

URNT12 KNHC 041928 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 04/1928Z ..............CORRECTED FOR DATE
B. 28 DEG 28 MIN N
88 DEG 35 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 136 DEG 96 NM
F. 205 DEG 33 KT
G. 136 DEG 80 NM
H. EXTRAP 1006 MB
I. 23 C/ 302 M
J. 24 C/ 308 M
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/01
O. 0.1/ 15 NM
P. AF861 02HHA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 38 KT NE QUAD 1709Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Nov 04 2003 05:15 PM
all of you

Fun to read what you are all posting, even now while there really isn't anything going on. But, I'm reading. Who knew I could be so quiet? Huh?

Keep writing, til its over.



Steve H.
(Registered User)
Tue Nov 04 2003 10:31 PM
Re: all of you

Well, I certainly don't think the season'e over yet! Strange pattern setup for this time of year, with strong ridging in the Atlantic and flat ridge building across the SE into the GOM. Front expected to stall across the Florida peninsula later this week, with another strong ridge building down the Ohio valley. What's it all mean. Not sure. But there's convection blossoming from the east coast of Florida (watching thunderstorms off to the south out the window) down through the Caribbean out into the Atlantic. With ridging to the north, would expect pressure falls somewhere in the basin. Not sure where. Models are hot and cold with some showing closed lows in the central Atlantic and others showing the Caribbean. Climatology may be affecting model output, but to what extent I don't know. I expect another storm out of all this though, could be the Caribbean and/or the Atlantic. Anyone know if JB is jumping on anything/idea in the basin. Please don't quote. Just wanted to see if he feels the pattern will produce anything else this year. Cheers!!

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Nov 05 2003 02:54 AM
Re: all of you

can only look to the nao-positive pattern and the corresponding SOI index, as that mjo graphic has been consistently out recently.. but it looks as if the basin is mostly neutral to development if not slightly favorable. 96L is going inland tonight having exhibited spotty tropical characteristics but never meeting the convective requirments to speak of (though recon did find something resembling a sheared tropical system). it's rained here a good bit this evening, and may do some more as convective cells are training onshore nearby as part of the system's lone 'rainband'.
aside from convection popping east of the islands, and some caribbean convection with no surface feature under a ridge.. there isn't a great deal going on--though i wouldn't count out some pattern-triggered development. when NAO flips around mid-month (it should?) there may be one last look to the western caribbean, which hasn't contributed much to the season thus far.
aside from that, things are on the slide. currently at 14-6-3, my 13-7-3 season prediction was satisfyingly close for now.
i have little to go on for 2004.. and the time is near for that (becoming an annual ritual).
another year with no major hurricane hit on the u.s. that's four years in a row. considering that we've had 56 classifiable systems in that time, 12 majors.. not one has hit. the long term statistical average would have given us four major hits.. we beat the odds year after year.
curioser and curioser, as we plummet down the rabbit hole.
HF 0652z05november


Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Wed Nov 05 2003 08:17 AM
Re: all of you

ITs the Mouse ears in Orlando and the Hot Air in Tallahassee that protects the State of Florida. ( no personal insults intended). Just the way it is. An ill wind blows and haven blown portends more evil than men have known. Ok my two cents worth today.

stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Nov 05 2003 09:21 AM
Re: all of you

I'm just in time to add more useless info into the 96L debacle. Its on shore with a whimper it appears with none of the fanfare that the models seem to project last week.

I still don't think things are quite done as we have an unusual, almost early October setup in the Atlantic and an active ITCZ. I still think we have one more named in our future, but what do I know?


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Nov 05 2003 12:24 PM
south of cuba

And my eyes wander south down towards that region of the Caribbean, south of Cuba where Bastardi lusts after a Caribbean Hurricane. He can almost taste it and yet he can't force it to happen.

My eyes can see the possible beginnings of something twisting that would give JB a smile the size of Pittsburgh.. if only it would stay a little longer... attract some necessary convection, get rid of those wild winds that are zooming up over the top of it and ...if it would only just catch fire on the IR then we would all be watching those twisting clouds caught in some atmospheric curl and wish it northward up to Florida

I'd keep watching if I were you all.. not much else worth watching and there is a twist and it does catch your eyes

If you will only look and open your mind to the possibilities.

Otherwise... wrap up the season and get out your copies of Twister :P


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Nov 05 2003 03:20 PM
heat

near record highs here, heat index well into the 90s. the tropical airmass with disturbance 96L has brought the temps well above normal, does not feel like november at all. low is onshore over near the ms/al border.. a east of hattiesburg, north of mobile. stalling out and probably near decay at the surface. not sure why the models are being knocked as having misread the low.. at times they showed a slightly stronger system, but most runs from practically every model indicated a strong open wave to a weak low.. thats pretty much on the money. nothing very impressive in the deep tropics today, nothing on the table. wave energy is making it westward again, though.. so we have culprit impulses that may do something if the pattern sets up right in a few days.
easier to look for a subtropical/hybrid type storm which is just as common this time of year. right now pattern is flat, so nothing interesting at those latitudes. around nov 13th, the following weekend.. pattern should flip to nao negative.. when the switch throws watch for that chance development. then again the season may have ended with nicholas.
HF 1920z05november


javlin
(Weather Master)
Wed Nov 05 2003 06:29 PM
Re: models

Yea Hank how often have we discussed that the models have a hard time initializing on a non existent system per say and get the track right.The ? remains and will for sometime on the intensity ?.The area S of Cuba sure is juicey right now.No circulation I can see but this look like the place something could happen if needed.I was 25 miles from where the little wimp came in and I could not tell.I guess I keep these damn acorns for a little while longer.This by far the heaviest season yet for them this year.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Nov 06 2003 12:29 AM
Re: models

Take a look at the 11/06 00Z CMC. Could be interesting for the Greater Antilles and maybe Bahamas. There's a front moving through here on Friday, and that's supposed to be out by Monday and supposed to warm up again, so whatever front comes down is either going to stall out or lift out probably with another high building in behind it. That could (5-10%) raise some interest for south Florida. But hey, you guys are watching anyway.

Oh yeah, the CMC. Btw, what it develops comes from east of the current flareup down in the West Car.

00Z Canadian Run @ PSU

Steve


Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Thu Nov 06 2003 09:19 AM
Re: Thingy South of Jamaica

that thingy south of Jamaica looks at least as Viable as the thingy that passed over Florida this week without a whimper. I figure now that tropical season is just about over, I can revert to babble.
However, I want to point out that we are having July weather around here in November and my fruit tree is blooming like crazy. It thinks that the 65 degree low we had one night last month was winter. I will be getting peaches in December if we dont get below 70! Strange goings on. But, this is the weather I came south for so bring it on!!!


Unregistered User
()
Thu Nov 06 2003 10:26 AM
Re: models

I would think by now you and Bastardi would be sick of eating crow, but he makes a lot of money getting people like you to pay for his chicken little cry's the sky is falling. Bastardi track record this past year is nothing to talk about and to think some people even pay to listen to his chicken cry's .


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Nov 06 2003 10:47 AM
CMC model

yeah looked at it, nice for dreamers but you never know..

notice there has been weather there in the area that it would come out of but the strong winds/shear keeps blowing it apart, would say tenacious and odd for this time of year to see anything east of the islands

as john hope would say "not in a favorable area"

but hey... 3 weeks or so and the season is OFFICIALLY over and with an eclipse coming up and strange weather (mary's peaches) who knows?

pouring in miami, not november stationary front hanging rain but very tropical


SunNFun
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Nov 06 2003 02:21 PM
Re: south of cuba

<< My eyes can see the possible beginnings of something twisting that would give JB a smile the size of Pittsburgh. >>

of course, Pittsburgh is nearly bankrupt so that might be too big Lois! hehehehe Anyway, convection firing up all over the place down here.. the storms are moving nowhere just sitting on top of us spewing lightning all over the place. Really7 a strange pattern to be seeing so late in the season.


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Nov 06 2003 03:17 PM
Interesting info...

This is from Wxrisk.com:

"In this regard is sometimes useful to look at the overall hurricane season and see what if any clues might be given by the pattern of the hurricane activity as well as what we are seeing so far halfway through autumn 2003. But one must be careful with this and NOT read too much into it.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2003/track.gif

The hurricane season of 2003 featured numerous Cape Verde systems - tropical waves and tropical depressions -- that failed to develop into significant Tropical Cyclones for the most part. There were two notable exceptions -- Hurricane Fabian and Hurricane Isabel. As the map shows most of the hurricane activity occurred in the Tropical and subtropical Atlantic which is why the Track of Isabel is such a standout. We can clearly see that MOST of the TC activity recurved to the East of the 65 degrees Longitude line.

In considering our analog years we can see that the season of 1960 and 1979 shows almost no similarity to the hurricane season that is now coming to a close. In the 1958 hurricane season we can see more of the recurvature that is similar to the 2003 hurricane season but by far away the Best match appears to be the hurricane season of 1969."

1969 Season

BTW, in case anyone could forget, 1969 featured a storm named Camille...


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Nov 06 2003 09:16 PM
Hey Swede...

>>I would think by now you and Bastardi would be sick of eating crow, but he makes a lot of money getting people like you to pay for his chicken little cry's the sky is falling. Bastardi track record this past year is nothing to talk about and to think some people even pay to listen to his chicken cry's .

First of all, you need to chill. I paid for his service up until early October - that was 3 months at $14.95 each. What's it to you? The last thing I read by him that wasn't posted by someone else was around October 12th or so.

But just to show that you haven't got a clue what you're talking about (and that's too bad considering I'm 25% Swede myself), his seasonal landfall forecast was fairly on. He missed on his FL hits, but the season isn't over yet. I doubt he gets what he wanted.

Ironically, I also missed on my FL hits. I almost got two, but neither of them formed before landfall, and 96L/Nicholas Remnants never actually formed into anything. But in case you think I parroted his ass, my forecast came out before his did. Feel free to find another one by any so-called EXPERT (including Bastardi) that came close. It's available on this site, or you can go to Storm2k and see it there if you want - all in black and white.

Do better and then you will be free to criticize me anytime you want to. As far as the reference to the CMC, I found it on my own. It wasn't really hard. I got it from the PSU site and linked it. It appeared interesting as there were some waves coming in from the east. Much of the web was enamored with the activity south of Jamaica which now appears to have phased (or is phasing) with the activity off the east coast. The CMC brings something up and over from east of there. While it has drummed up plenty of phantom storms this year (as have many of the models), it was still worth noting.

See it's easy for someone to criticize others - whether that be me, Bastardi, Ed, LoisCane or anyone else - when they themselves contribute nothing. Perhaps if you actually would have said something for yourself instead of taking a cheap shot or trying to knock someone else down, then you and your opinions might be of value in the future.

So I tell you what. I'll pat my own damn back and post my forecast right here in the next thread and YOU say where I off. If you have access to JB's forecast, feel free to debunk it if you have the fortitude.

Steve


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Nov 06 2003 09:21 PM
Re: Hey Swede...

For the record, JB's forecast came out around June 7th or 8th. I put one out on this site, but the thread was deleted. I copied and pasted it on May 31st at Storm2k for their seasonal forecast thread.

Debunk away, but first, show my your take on the season from before it started:

Posted: Sat May 24, 2003 3:31 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's my shot in the dark 2003 hurricane forecast. Take it for what it's worth - absolutely nothing. But since everyone wants to have their say, I'm going to have mine. Don't beat me up too bad over it when it's all wrong in the end. It's long, so sorry about that.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm going with 14/8/4. All data I've perused indicates that this will be a memorable season. I don't have a clue if these numbers will pan out, but I went into last year with a 13/8/3 prediction. I was better on my landfalls.

So far we know that the mean trof position is likely to be even further west than last year's. It is liable to fluctuate between the Western Lakes and the Northern Rockies. Last year's avenue through the US was between 88-92W. This year it's more wide open. Landfalls could occur between 80-97W depending on relative conditions at the time the storms are in the area. I had a guru tell me that he believes the the MJO will be in the area in August. That could mean an earlier start to the meat of the season than we've seen in a couple of years. I'm predicting a minimum of 5 named storms in some part of the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see as many as 6 or 7 landfalls this year. I'll go out on a limb and predict 1 hit between the Upper Mexican Coast and Corpus; 1 landfall between Corpus and New Iberia/Vermillion Bay, 2 landfalls between New Iberia and Panama City Beach, 1 landfall between Key West and PCB, and a landfall in SE Florida which could be a dual landfall (ala Betsy, Andrew, et al). The Outer Banks is always a potential target, so that goes without saying. And there's always the shot that if the Bermuda Ridge is placed just right, there could be a hit between coastal Virginia and Maine.

In the peak part of the season, some indications are that the NAO may be neutral to slightly positive this year. If my failing memory is right, we had a negative NAO for the heart of the season last year. Water profiles in the Gulf and off the east coast are somewhat similar to last year. In some places, the water is already running warmer, the exception being right along the shoreline in the NE. In contrast to last season, there is no serious drought in the mid-Atlantic. One lesson from last year was that whenever the water is warm off the NE Coast and there are drought conditions in the mid-Atlantic, they will be broken by the hurricane season.

What could be interesting this year, and I'll be waiting for Kevin, Rob and TWW's forecast due out Sunday is whether or not the MJO is a factor in September and early October. If my source is right and its peak effect is earlier in the season, we'll have to see when it comes back around again in relation to whatever the Fall brings. It's almost like 2003 could peak differently than what we saw in 2002 and 2001.

As noted in other posts, the NOAA predicts storm tracks to be further south this year, so there is a good chance that we might see more CV storms or those originating in the Atlantic. This could mean landfalls of stronger storms than the close-in stuff we saw last year that consisted in all but 1 case of tropical storms. This is unknown, but my money is with storms being stronger this year than what we saw last year.

I'm not honing in on a specific target zone, because the entire Gulf and SE coast looks to be ripe for mother nature's pickins this year. (I had Bay St. Louis-Pensacola last year). If the Bermuda Ridge is as strong of an influence as what I'm thinking (and I was dead on that last year) there will be an aiming mechanism.

Joe B ranks 1995 as one of the analog years with similar water termperature in the Pacific and precipitation patterns across the states. Some differences include a negative NAO and warmer water further east in the Atlantic. FYI, here are the tracks for the 1995 Hurricane Season. One will note the fair number of gulf hits (Dean, Erin, Opal) but the otherwise incredible amount of fish spinners that year. There were 18 named storms.

Now I'm not thinking we're giong to have 18 named storms in 2003, but if for some insane reason we did, there would be a tremendous landfall potential.

http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/elnino/crfig13.html

Steve


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Nov 06 2003 09:26 PM
Re: Hey Swede...

So as advertised, it wasn't perfect, but it wasn't all that bad considering all I had going against my forecast climatologically. So again, put up or shut up. And FWIW, I don't mean to be ugly, but if you're going to stand on the perimeter and throw stones, I cordially invite you to step up to the plate and show where you had something better, and therefore, are worthy of the criticism you dished out.

Otherwise - sorry to everyone else. But I'm not going to grab my ankles even if I refuse to get personal or ugly with another user.

Steve


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Nov 06 2003 10:50 PM
Re: Hey Swede...

Ed will probably nuke this cause it's "off topic" but, glad to see someone put up his dukes against the "old swede". Joe B rocks my friends, and he keeps most interested, even if he is wrong...at least he has the cajones to try...Talk to you soon...even if it's about nothin'...CFHC rox!

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Nov 06 2003 11:25 PM
The Rules of Engagement

For the benefit of new Registered Users, I really only insist on two things:

1. You can offer a differing opinion on someone else's point of view, but you cannot direct a post against an individual.
2. Off-topic material must be posted in the appropriate Forum and not on the Main News Feedback or the Storm Forum.

If you can live with those two rules, you are certainly most welcome to post on this site. If you cannot, you will not gain much from the site and your experience here will be counter-productive (and perhaps short-lived). CFHC is not the largest tropical weather site on the web, but the quality of its posts make it one of the best. We don't come here to bicker - we come here to share knowledge. Lets keep it that way.
Thanks,
ED

Ed Dunham
CFHC Moderator


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Nov 10 2003 12:20 PM
Re: The Rules of Engagement

Rules of engagement stated very well Ed, thanks.

And, agree with Steve on things he has said.

This is a great site..am still watching tropics and won't say it's over til it's over. November 30th.. End Date. Deadline. Game is over.

Til then.. I'm here...reading and watching and may peek in occaision.

Still pathetically watching area of showers which persist in Atlantic before islands.. don't expect much.. but hard not to notice.

thanks.. Bobbi
and as stated re: JB.. got to give him credit for taking the chance, so many people sit around and complain and pat themselves on the back after the fact but few will take the chance and go for it. Whether he is right or whether he is wrong, he's doing it his way. No one is breaking your arm to pay him and no one is breaking your arm to sign up for free month trials.

A lot of people round here should take a lesson and take at chance at what they want to do before the opportunity is gone, the moment has passed and the season is over.

Bobbi


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 10 2003 02:25 PM
Last Invest of 2003?

Invest 97L has been initiated.

Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 10 2003 02:26 PM
Low pressure center forming in Caribbean?

From the NHC's 105 pm EST discussion (the first part essentially repeats the 1130 am tropical outlook):

TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ...
CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...
AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ALREADY LOW IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MIGHT BE FORMING IN THE
EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT 100 NM NORTH
OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.


Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 10 2003 02:27 PM
Re: Last Invest of 2003?

You beat me Jara on posting it and that is a good question and I think that yes it is the last one.Raining hard here in Puerto Rico today as we are close to that system

Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 10 2003 02:28 PM
It's now -97 Invest

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972003) ON 20031110 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
031110 1800 031111 0600 031111 1800 031112 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 69.4W 14.5N 69.6W 15.1N 69.5W 15.6N 69.0W
BAMM 13.8N 69.4W 14.5N 69.9W 15.1N 69.8W 15.3N 69.6W
A98E 13.8N 69.4W 14.6N 69.3W 15.1N 69.6W 15.2N 69.7W
LBAR 13.8N 69.4W 14.8N 69.6W 16.2N 69.6W 17.6N 69.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
031112 1800 031113 1800 031114 1800 031115 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 68.6W 17.9N 67.4W 21.1N 63.7W 23.4N 56.3W
BAMM 15.6N 69.4W 16.8N 68.6W 18.9N 65.7W 19.1N 61.3W
A98E 15.6N 69.5W 16.9N 68.7W 18.2N 66.9W 18.0N 65.2W
LBAR 18.9N 69.2W 21.2N 68.6W 24.8N 66.2W 29.2N 56.7W
SHIP 48KTS 58KTS 57KTS 51KTS
DSHP 48KTS 58KTS 47KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 69.4W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 69.0W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 68.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 155NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Nov 10 2003 02:28 PM
Re: It's now -97 Invest

Oops--didn't see your post Jara

LI Phil
(User)
Mon Nov 10 2003 02:40 PM
RECON

407
NOUS42 KNHC 101730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1230 PM EST MON 10 NOVEMBER 2003
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z NOV 2003
TCPOD NUMBER.....03-162

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO
A. 11/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 11/1400Z
D. 17.0N 65.0W
E. 11/1900Z TO 12/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6HRLY FIXES AT 12/1200Z IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Nov 10 2003 02:45 PM
About as colorful as a Puerto Rican Parrot right now

If you look fast...looks almost like a parrot.

Very cute. Checked for an invest this morning before I posted, just in case... came back from lunch pleasantly surprised. Okay...even though I checked.. I didn't really believe..

so cool.. have to watch.. guess its not over yet


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Nov 10 2003 02:49 PM
ps water temps

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sst.gif

are quite warm there...able to get something going even this late in november


LI Phil
(User)
Mon Nov 10 2003 04:03 PM
Models

The first Tropical Models of 97L all take it north then out to sea. Globals are all over the place.

Tropical Models

Global Models



k___g
(Weather Guru)
Mon Nov 10 2003 05:10 PM
Re: Models

should anything form it's almost a sure bet it's a fish spinner.......nice to see a bit more activity, though.......I hate to see the season come to an end......it's been an interesting one........

Kudos to John, Mike and Ed......you guys ROCK!!!

see ya'll next year.......


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Nov 10 2003 05:13 PM
Odette's Engagement??

While I see a lot of hype on local TV (Kamal was gushing) and lots of models walking down various aisles I don't see an engagement ring.

Get back to be when someone has a diamond ring. Maybe then Odette will pay attention to all the hollywood hype.

What is the P storm this year? See, what I find annoying about attemps to assign numbers to the season is that... in my opinon that rainstorm that everyone here argued over in the Gulf should have been Odette and this SHOULD have been the P storm. But, then what's in a name?



LI Phil
(User)
Mon Nov 10 2003 05:22 PM
What's next...

Odette, Peter & Rose. Doubt we'll make it to Peter though.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Nov 10 2003 06:37 PM
POOR PETER

So close and yet so far....

one letter away and the wrong sex

(got cheated...they should never have named that last one nicholas the second)

if i were Peter..I'd sue


HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Nov 10 2003 06:37 PM
Re: Models

huh? how could it be a fish spinner if it forms in the caribbean and comes out? ringed with islands..?
anyhow remember glancing at that thing last night, thinking NAH. glancing tonight, thinking HMMM..MAYBE. upper winds are supposed to improve (same voice in head says YEAH RIGHT).. and it looks like a low is forming at the southwest edge of the convection, if closed it is very weak. first thing that my mind envisions for any development would resemble klaus of 1984. thats what i'll say for now, 'til i run through the models and see what they do.
HF 2237z10november



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