MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Jun 20 2006 06:47 AM
Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

There is an interesting area of low pressure near the Bahamas East and South of Florida that may bring us some more rain here in Florida, but it isn't likely to develop, at least in the short term

Some of the forecasting models do some interesting things with it, the GFS model just moves it across Florida bringing some rain, but not developing. This would be ideal, but leaves some weather off the southeastern US coastline. Others move it around some, but still nothing is suggesting imminent development. It's an area to watch, however.

Conditions are against it forming into anything tropical right now, if you take a look at the satellite image and see the streaks of clouds to the northeast, you can see a bit of shear moving overtop it, which will keep development unlikely.

Toward the weekend things may pick up a bit as far as items to watch in the tropics, so keep watch as always.



Radar Imagery
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

91L:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot

Animated Model Plot of 91L
Model Plot of 91L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system


Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jun 20 2006 08:34 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Interesting model runs this morning. The 00Z GFS and NOGAPS take the current wave/trough near the Bahamas and move it west either over S FL or thru the straits into the GOM. Both models then eventually develop weak lows either in the north-central or western GOM in 5-6 days. Both these models, along with the UKMET and CMC, have another T-wave develop east of the Bahamas (may be the current wave near the Lesser Antilles) in 5-6 days. The CMC of course goes gonzo and develops it into a tropical cyclone. The other models maintain it as an open wave. Looks like it could start to become more active the next week in the SW Atlantic and GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jun 20 2006 08:41 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

The NOGAPS has a few bad points in the Model run, wouldn't take to much stock in that Run. GFS not showing much of anything both 000Z and 060Z run.... maybe somthing in the CMC..

ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jun 20 2006 09:02 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Saw this from Sunday to Monday as well... models runs at 12 and 18z were more than hinting at something devloping...then 0z runs-virtually nothing...


Most likely we'll see a return to yesterday and Sunday's 12 and 18z runs with a developing Low... meaning (I think) that the blow up in convection over tand near the Bahamas will probably spur on the models to be more aggressive. That being said- any development in any model run so far out, I think we'll see the same repeating flip flop for the next day or so


MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jun 20 2006 10:08 AM
Re: It's getting "the Look"

Might be a close in/no notice development...or in the Gulf.

Also, take a look out by the Azores, large low may be developing some central convection.

MM


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jun 20 2006 10:40 AM
Re: It's getting "the Look"

Why is the area of the Bahamas not likely to develop at this time? Also, which way is the area moving? Could this possibly move
into the Gulf?


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Jun 20 2006 11:37 AM
Re: It's getting "the Look"

The last time is looked at the models..Sunday, they were 50-50 on the system's movement.

Either way, GOM or SE Atlantic Coast. The system did not develop.
I haven't checked the latest runs, but the Bahama's system is in or near an elongated trough of low pressure.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Jun 20 2006 12:03 PM
Today's GFS Runs..so far

00Z GFS 850mb Vorticity model.
Current Bahamas system. Model maintains vorticity signature (spin) and send the system nearly due west, along the 25N line, to a point near 92W and then WSW to the US-Mexican border at 144 hours.

There are two other vortices indicated by this model run.
1-forms near the Turks and Caicos Islands and moves toward Cape Hatteras, NC.
2-Forms North of Puerto Rico and moves it just west of due North.

06Z Run.
Bahamas vortice to near Merida/ Tampico MX at 144hrs.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jun 20 2006 01:39 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far

012Z GFS run now shows a 2 system building east of FL nothing in the Gulf....

ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jun 20 2006 01:53 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far

Well both the GFS and CMC have the low in the 12z runs. The CMC, however is much faster in moving the low westard over the peninsula of FL-crossing in about 84 hours..the GFS doesn't move the low over FL until about six days out. Hopefully we'll see a more consistant run at 18 or 0z

Timing is everything (mainly because I'm going on vacation next week haha )


saluki
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Jun 20 2006 02:06 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far

How strong does the low appear when it moves over Florida? We still could use the rain here in South Florida, but anything stronger than that ... no thanks!

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jun 20 2006 03:17 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far

What does the shear look like it's going to do? Will it hold up long enough to keep the tops off of these systems?

I would LOVE another rainmaker here in SWFL! We got 2.5 inches of rain on Saturday from a regular t-storm, and .75 on Sunday. Nothing yesterday or yet today. Not looking too favorable today, unless a late afternoon/early evening storm blooms along the *brain fart* frontal line? (Is that what it's called?)


Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Jun 20 2006 03:47 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far

Quote:

Well both the GFS and CMC have the low in the 12z runs. The CMC, however is much faster in moving the low westard over the peninsula of FL-crossing in about 84 hours..the GFS doesn't move the low over FL until about six days out. Hopefully we'll see a more consistant run at 18 or 0z

Timing is everything (mainly because I'm going on vacation next week haha )




Add the 12Z NOGAPs and the 12Z NAM to the mix. The NOGAPs bring the Bahamas system west across the peninsula as an open wave and eventually develops a LLC that travels into the northern GOM near NO. The NAM is slower and develops a 1,012 mb low east of the peninsula and moves it generally W-NW toward the east coast in 84 hrs.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...;dtg=2006062012

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml


MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Tue Jun 20 2006 03:54 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far

Seabreeze Front, Lesli.

MM


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Tue Jun 20 2006 05:25 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

WE NEED RAIN!!!


Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on June 20, 2006
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A large area of cloudiness...scattered showers... and a few thunderstorms continues across portions of the Bahamas and northeastward into the Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Environmental conditions remain unfavorable for development of this system.

Elsewhere... tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.

$$

Forecaster Stewart


Cat 5orBust
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Jun 20 2006 05:31 PM
Re: bahamas area

i see the area in the bahamas is still unfavorable for development. does anyone know if it is going to become favorable in the coming days or will this just be a rainmaker for south florida?

HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Jun 20 2006 07:03 PM
Re: bahamas area

been watching the upper air evolution over the next few days. mind this stuff won't work out right if there's a significant storm altering the currents, but given the time of year and so forth it's probably a smarter assumption to think that the upper air evolution will likely keep any development weak and hard-pressed to do much. here's the take:
mid-level system continues to turn over a broad area northeast of the bahamas. there's a diffluent upper air flow overhead with an anticyclonic arc to it, helping the convection some. given the big upper low far east over the central atlantic, this area should naturally remain somewhat anticyclonic and keep the disturbed area active. any low pressure that develops would have to 'lock-in' and becoming attuned to the deep convection and outflow mechanism, or lower-level steering currents would just push it west into a high shear-zone around florida/the gulf. so, if a low comes east to florida, expect a weak enhancement to showers and nothing else.
i usually buy into what the energy from a system is shown doing by models, and the result of most of these is to take a weak low/precip area west then north into the carolinas... maybe a weak system running fl/ga/sc. if something gets going it would more than likely turn up around the mid-level ridge, which should stay anchored east of hatteras for the rest of the week. that's something to consider, at least.
there's also an upper high propagating west, with an attendant wave in the caribbean. the high should enhance it some... but globals show a pretty strong jet on its back flank, shown outrunning the waves and shearing them in the western caribbean.
gfs keeps trying to focus the system near the bahamas further east, and take its energy out past bermuda in a sort of 'jeanne-east' scenario. it has made a couple of significant systems like earlier cmc runs, but has them developing in high-shear zones in a quasi-baroclinic fashion. don't buy it.
bottom line: if the feature off the southeast keeps persisting, it will eventually spawn a surface low. if the surface low doesn't jolt westward into shear, it may wiggle itself into being a weak tropical cyclone, fighting some shear, and carry a ton of moisture up towards the mid-atlantic after menacing the southeast late this week.
random thought... we're just about at the summer solistice. enjoy that late evening twilight.
HF 0002z21june


Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Tue Jun 20 2006 07:38 PM
Re: bahamas area

Just to add my two bits to the fire here....

Took a peek at the 12Z CMC and 18Z NGP which are similar in difting a fairly stout inverted surface trough westward into/across Florida somtime during the THU-FRI period. 12Z/18Z GFS is quite a bit drier for ECFL during that time frame since it hangs the weak trough out to the east...and doesn't allow it to rach the coast until FRI night/SAT.

However...all the global guidance is in decent agreement w/r/t the H50 pattern...which shows a pretty stout ridge developing over the the eastern CONUS thru 12Z THU. This feature is progged to stretch eastward into the western ATLC through FRI and then begin to weaken around 12Z SAT.

The SFC-H50 pattern is not going to allow any sort of shallow low-mid level system to move northward a la the 18Z NAM/DGEX which is off on it's own spinning up a TS and moving it NW then N into SC/NC by SAT night/SUN.

The H30-H20 pattern over that area switches from diffluent/divergent SW flow to somewhat convergent N-NW flow as the deforming TUTT type low which has been stretched across central/southern FL begins to push eastward through late week.

All-in-all, it doesn't look like a pattern terribly conducive for a TC to form. SFC pressures aren't that low to begin with, and the synoptic-aided ascent which is helping to boost convection is forecast to weaken. At this point, I'd call for, at best, a very weak surface trough to approach the FL east coast through late week, which would be pretty welcome should it come to fruition as it would aid diurnal TSTM activity over the state.


Thomas Giella
(User)
Tue Jun 20 2006 09:09 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTT) rarely transition into warm core tropical systems. They usually move slowly westward and pass across South Florida or the Florida Straits, first depressing thunderstorm activty and then enhancing it.

Conditions are not favorable for tropical development. We should savor the quiet pattern that we are in right now as the tropics will heat up in July.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jun 20 2006 09:58 PM
Re: bahamas area

I wouldn't put too much stock into the NAM solution, either. It got the WRF-NMM core plopped into it today at 12z, which has a known tendency to overdevelop tropical features. Not sure why, especially given that it is based off of the old Eta schemes and physics, but I would venture a guess to say that it is in the convective parameterizations.

If this were August, the upper-air pattern would likely be much different than it is now. We saw a lot of these types of developments last year, but not until the middle part of the season. The upper air pattern may remain marginally favorable as HF mentioned, but it's going to be tough to get any significant tropical development out of this one.

Then again, here in N. Florida, we'd take any enhancement to our rain chances we could get -- despite Alberto's 3"+ of rain, we're back over 10" in the hole for the year.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Jun 20 2006 11:37 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Date on picture s/b 20 June

Fixed with new photo - mikec


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Jun 21 2006 01:19 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

first glance (and only a glance) at 00z GFS.. takes a weak low toward the NE part of Florida by Sat time frame... then a turn towards the north at the carolinas.... and bringd the low/wave into the Brunswick County region (SE NC)....although very weak.... will see what plays out.... we got to get a low to develope before anything can happen..... looks like the southern part of the state may deal with another trof/tropical wave be sunday into monday.... We need the rain in NW Florida... BADLY!!
Will see what the shear does....

Easy now. Part of this post is bordering on wishcasting!~danielw


Wishcasting for some RAIN!!!! THIS PART OF THE STATE IS BADLY IN A DROUGHT!!! **inlcuding my yard***


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Jun 21 2006 01:35 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

well just took a look at the CMC 00z run... would love for that scenerio to plauy out.... pops a low in 48hrs and brings in near or south of Daytona and then a track over to the Apalach. Bay... and then towards good old Panama City in 102hrs..... WE COULD USE THE TROPICAL MOSITURE!!!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation


bottom line... like others have posted.... something could spinn up or something may not... but i say it at best would be weak....the moisture would greatly be need over here in this neck of the woods... and with the models all over the place with the tropical wave/trof... will just have to sit and watch more runs and see what developes.... i am interested in the long range...GFS at 00z.... while it spinns up a low in the middle of the atlanrtic... is shows a wave crossing south atlantic towards the southern islands late mid week.. next week...to me that would allow the wave to get into the carribean and from there.... hmm... will just watch and see...July is almost here... think the switch is about to be turned on in the tropics....

GFS 180hrs 00z run


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Jun 21 2006 02:01 AM
00Z Wednesday Model rounds

Based on 850mb vorticity product only.
Canadian-moves large vortice area to Tallahassee, then NW to Dothan,AL area. At 120 hours-5 days.

GFS-At 120 hours. Vortice area is off of the NC/ SC Coast. Basically the same movement as the Canadian model. GFS start point is farther offshore than the CAN. Hence the CAN goes across the Eastern Panhandle where the GFS turns NW toward the GA/ SC Coast

UKMET-Vortice over/ near Melbourne at 120 hours.
And crawls to a position over the Northern Peninsula through 144 hours.
Starting point is the southern-most of the three models at 00Z. Basically centered over the Bahamas.

No real increase in the vorticity signature was noted using the three above models. In other words, no mid level (850mb) development using the 6-21-06 00Z models.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:41 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

The lows were big news at 5:30Am on our local station. They are hoping we'll get some rain from at least one of them. They said the one off the Bahamas might turn into a depression, but................

Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Jun 21 2006 09:01 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Looks like the trough of low pressure near the Bahamas splits in two with a piece ejecting off to the NE with the southern end forming the eventual LLC according to the HPC. They have the LLC form just off the SE coast of FL on Sunday Morning and move NW across the peninsula to Crystal River by Monday. Not sure how this will play out, but Alberto formed in a similar situation with a trough splitting in two.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html


MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Wed Jun 21 2006 09:44 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Looks like something is slowly happening in the SW Caribbean too.

Meanwhile, we still have 'blobogenesis' underway in the Bahamas vicinity..persistence is the thing.

MM


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Jun 21 2006 12:11 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Hmm kinda iffy on the development east of the bahamas....something might try to form and head towards florida and the carolinas later this weekend.a strong midlevel low is still going to persist over the bahamas..this should steer anything wnw .

madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Jun 21 2006 01:22 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Quote:


Easy now. Part of this post is bordering on wishcasting!~danielw


Wishcasting for some RAIN!!!! THIS PART OF THE STATE IS BADLY IN A DROUGHT!!! **inlcuding my yard***




I'll SECOND that! We desperately need rain. I'd do just about anything short of doing a nekkid rain dance in my yard to get rain here in SWFL!

We don't want a hurricane -- or even a TS. We want RAIN!! And anything that brings that wet stuff is more than welcome to pay a visit. *LOL*


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Jun 21 2006 01:28 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

That stuff to the east of the Bahamas almost looks like (looking at the visible and IR loops) it's actually moving to the NE, not to the W as the NHC says. Like it's drifting up into the Atlantic.

I'm not saying it IS moving that way, but to me, it looks like it. Or is that just shear making it look like it's moving and the center is actually going W?


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Jun 21 2006 01:31 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Im not so sure it is moving all that much either way, but I have seen some of the models show it doing a kinda loop ne, e, like that and back around to the w or wnw.

ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Wed Jun 21 2006 01:36 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Alright, a little more consistancy in a few of the models (so far I've only looked at a few...) CMC still has "something" tropical developing and moving into the panhandle in 4 and 1/2 days after crossing the peninsula. This would be GREAT for us if this was the case because we need the rain! The GFS has the low moving further south but more or less dying out? if that is the right term.

I think we will see something come out of this in the next 48-72 hours but it's going to take some time. Right now it doesn't look all that healthy, but that can quickly change...keeping an eye on it though for sure, would love LOVE some rain this weekend


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Jun 21 2006 02:11 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE OVER THE WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. HOWEVER...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM WEAK SHOULD IT DEVELOP.


vonkamp
(Registered User)
Wed Jun 21 2006 02:51 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT...WITH
AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITH THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION OFF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
TOMORROW AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO THE 21/1500 UTC CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
A HUGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE.


Is this normal?? What (if any) is the significance of it?
Thanks,
Baron


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Jun 21 2006 02:52 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Dust prevents convection from really forming. It dries out the atmosphere.

Fla. native in Ala.
(Registered User)
Wed Jun 21 2006 02:53 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

This may be a little off topic and if so, tell me where to post my question. I need information concerning the direction of the prevailing winds at various times of the day in MOntgomery Alabama on September 16, 2004 during Hurricane Ivan. Could anyone tell me where to find this information on the web.
haven't looked ahead to see if this is answered. go to wunderground.com, type kmgm in the location box, and look for the options that navigate to daily and monthly records. you can type in the date. it will give you a table of hourly obs. -HF


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Jun 21 2006 03:04 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Try the NWS Birmingham Office (I think that is the area Montgomery is in) ...take a look at their website first, but for such detialed info you will need to talk to them.

clueless
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Jun 21 2006 03:44 PM
A newbie question

As we watch these "systems that could be something" develop and get sheared, or whatever may happen to keep them from fully developing, are they actually serving the purpose of warming the water below them. I remember during Alberto someone asked about he deeper water temperatures and mentioned that as the storm brought up these lower, colder water, it would hurt the storm. My question is - like when cooking and replacing the water that is already heated by stirring it to redistribute the heat, does this stirring - in the long run have the same effect.

I have not ever really monitored the board this early in the season, so the second part of my question is would the amount of systems that justify watching already above average, which could bode bad things for the rest of the season?

If this should be posted somewhere else, please let me know


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Jun 21 2006 04:55 PM
Re: A newbie question

is that a spin that im showing on the sat.? it looks like a spin.

MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Wed Jun 21 2006 05:09 PM
Re: A newbie question

Newbie, you need to add a few more details to your question...there is more than one area that might be spinning.

Speaking of which...lot of apparent spin down in the SW Carib. Anyone got a clue as to what's up with that.

Meanwhile, the "Bahamas Blob" seems to be holding it's own...

MM


clueless
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Jun 21 2006 05:21 PM
Re: A newbie question

Mapmaster,
I was speaking pretty much of general patterns rather than a specific item.

So in case I was unclear, my 2 questions are
1. Do these areas that we are watching stir up the water, allowing the deeper water to warm faster?
2. Are we seeing more early areas to watch that add just more fuel to the fire of what has already been predicted as a rough season?


BullitNutz
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Jun 21 2006 05:26 PM
Re: A newbie question

I'd imagine the waters would cool off as they subside below warmer water and become more separated from their heat source (sunlight)

Wingman51
(Weather Guru)
Wed Jun 21 2006 05:31 PM
Local News Interested

Tom Terry - - WFTV - TV9 in Cent FLA is discussing the probality of development from the Eastern Bahamas for this weekend - - seems to think rain for us with minimal chance for true tropical development

MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Wed Jun 21 2006 05:58 PM
Re: A newbie question

Sorry Clueless, I was actually directing my reply toward 'nl', I mistakenly referred to 'newbie'.

MM


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Jun 21 2006 06:37 PM
Re: Local News Interested

Tom actually said at 6:18 P.M. "watching for possible development" did not show too much opinion as to development likely or not. From watching him, and meeting him briefly recently, I think he doesn't want to jump the gun, but thinks in these crazy times that development isa real possibility, who knows.

From my experience or lake thereof over the last several years, and living in the path of three storms in 14 months time, I feel almost like here in South Brevard, that sooner or later, probably sooner we are doomed! Hopefully I am WRONG though.

In my opinion only!!!! I think this system will be at best a depression and hit the Melbourne, Florida area as a similar or weaker to Alberto type storm, probably weaker though. Don't dust off your generators yet, do change the filter and oil soon, as it is probably just a matter of 4 to 8 weeks before any real chance that you'll need them.

Those that know this stuff well, do you know the chances of something popping NE of the Bahama Islands and heading my way in the next 90 hrs or so?


Storm Cooper
(User)
Wed Jun 21 2006 06:56 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Yes the global models are trying to have the same general idea. The 12z runs of NOGAPS, MM5FSU and the UKM are hinting a little... I'd like to see the ECMWF join in for confidence.... anyway... some in the southeast may see some rain in their future...

.... a part of the Tally AFD....

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE OVER THE WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. HOWEVER...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM WEAK SHOULD IT DEVELOP.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Jun 21 2006 07:20 PM
Twins...again??

I thought I was looking at a split system over the Bahamas.
Using this loop that Storm Hunter sent me, I was able to visualize the Two Separate Vortices.
1- 26N/ 74W
2-30N/ 70W
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

At this time 2322Z they are Both moving/ drifting toward the NorthEast away from the FL Coast~danielw


Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Wed Jun 21 2006 07:26 PM
Re: Twins...again??

Quote:

I thought I was looking at a split system over the Bahamas.
Using this loop that Storm Hunter sent me, I was able to visualize the Two Separate Vortices.
1- 26N/ 74W
2-30N/ 70W
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html




Yuppers...
These two features appear to be small H70-H50 vortices that were convectively spun up and are presently being sheared off to the northeast by the H50-H30 trough extending northeast from FL. these small vortices are riding over the top of the SW-NE oriented SFC-H85 inverted trough that currently lies across that area.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Jun 21 2006 07:40 PM
Attachment
Re: Twins...again??

Thanks, Tony.
I'll try to post a visual shot of what we are talking about.

This pic is from 2115Z..or 5:15pm EDT/ 4:15pm CDT.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Jun 21 2006 07:45 PM
Re: Twins...again??

Quote:

small H70-H50 vortices that were convectively spun up and are presently being sheared off to the northeast by the H50-H30 trough extending northeast from FL. these small vortices are riding over the top of the SW-NE oriented SFC-H85 inverted trough




I had not seen that terminology before since I'm not a met, but I think got it. I knew those were mid-level features (and quikscat confirmed that), so H70-H50 means 700mbar-500mbar level, shear coming from the trough at 500mbar - 300mbar and the surface trough at 850mbar?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:08 PM
Re: Twins...again?? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:13 PM
Re: Twins...again??

Lou, chill. I am trying to learn the terminology.

I'm not a met so I can't forecast (not can't as in shouldn't, can't as in I would not have the first clue). But NHC doesn't think anything is going to develop right now, and HPC's extended forecasts, which NHC also participates in, do not show a tropical cyclone developing either, right now.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:17 PM
Re: Twins...again??

Sorry if I appeared hostile, just want to know if I should board up soon or something

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:28 PM
Re: Twins...again??

Lou-

The most we'll get is some much needed rain this weekend. No one is predicting much else.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:30 PM
Re: Twins...again??

The chances are slim right now that we are in the line of a tropical storm. Jean/ Frances played around for days before she decided to come to the east coast of Florida. People swore up and down, she was going to go out to sea and she didn't. However, the storm(s) at this point would have to do a near 180 and have a lot more good conditions to do anything"threatening" to Florida at this point. I am more worried about not getting rain than getting a dangerous storm.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:30 PM
Re: Twins...again??

It's pretty unlikely you'll need to board up for anything that's out there right now, Lou. Believe me, if you hang around here, you'll know when to start thinking about boarding up long before you hear it on the news. If you hang around long enough, you'll start to understand the lingo. You'll learn more than you ever wanted to know about tropical storms.

On a side note, I'd recommend taking a moment to register. It's quick and easy, and comes with a few handy features.


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:34 PM
Re: A newbie question

Quote:

As we watch these "systems that could be something" develop and get sheared, or whatever may happen to keep them from fully developing, are they actually serving the purpose of warming the water below them. I remember during Alberto someone asked about he deeper water temperatures and mentioned that as the storm brought up these lower, colder water, it would hurt the storm. My question is - like when cooking and replacing the water that is already heated by stirring it to redistribute the heat, does this stirring - in the long run have the same effect.

I have not ever really monitored the board this early in the season, so the second part of my question is would the amount of systems that justify watching already above average, which could bode bad things for the rest of the season?

If this should be posted somewhere else, please let me know




Someone correct me if I'm wrong (and I might very well be wrong) but I think storms actually act as "air conditioning" and pull heat/energy out of the atmosphere and cool it.

I'm not a met and I don't even play one on tv though. *LOL*


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:37 PM
27N 73W

So we have a mid level feature that looks to me like it's forming a surface reflection. Worth watching and if it remains nestled in the little pocket of low shear, it may have a chance to organize with a little help from the outflow channels that shoot off to the north and east.

Right now I'd give it a 33% chance to develop into a Tropical Depression in the next 48 hours. The odds are still against it, at least from using Mark I Eyeball analysis of the sat pics. But it's certainly not zero. (and I would argue it has more organization than Alberto did in the formative stages.)

Nothing else really jumping out in the near term

27N 73W is what I'm eyeballing


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:45 PM
Re: 27N 73W

Quote:

So we have a mid level feature that looks to me like it's forming a surface reflection. Worth watching and if it remains nestled in the little pocket of low shear, it may have a chance to organize with a little help from the outflow channels that shoot off to the north and east.





Which one? The one at 77/78W south of 20N?


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:52 PM
Heights

I'll try my hand at some quick interpretation of the Upper Air Heights.

The H70-H50 is commonly used by the NWS and using the Standard Atmosphere, is the area between
9900ft and 18300ft.

Here are the Standard Atmosphere heights:
Surface/ sea level--1013.25mb
400ft--------------------1000mb
2500ft-------------------925mb
4800ft-------------------850mb
9900ft-------------------700mb (normal Recon Flight level)
18300ft-----------------500mb

These are considered as the Standard Atmosphere levels in the U.S.

Rough calculation is: Subtract 34mb for every 1000ft of elevation.
4800/1000=4.8 x 34=163.2
1013.25-163.2=850mb


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Jun 21 2006 08:59 PM
Re: Twins...again??

Quote:

Yuppers...
These two features appear to be small H70-H50 vortices that were convectively spun up and are presently being sheared off to the northeast by the H50-H30 trough extending northeast from FL. these small vortices are riding over the top of the SW-NE oriented SFC-H85 inverted trough that currently lies across that area.




H70-H50= 9,900ft to 18,300ft (Mid Level)
H50-H30= 18,300 to 30,000ft (Upper Level)
SFC-H85= Sea Level to 4,800ft (Low level)

METs feel free to correct this~danielw


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Jun 21 2006 09:47 PM
Re: Twins...again??

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. Is this mean something could form?

Not really. That's probably the 9th or 10th wave that's come across this month. They just seem to be a bit more active ( convection and thunderstorm activity) than what is normally seen in the 3rd week of June.~danielw


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Jun 21 2006 10:11 PM
Re: Twins...again??

Boy... NASA got some cool new toys this year.....thought this would interest some folks... Tax dollars at work.... WOW! Pretty cool images i have seen so far

"NASA's new CloudSat satellite captured its first tropical storm, Alberto, as it spun over the Gulf of Mexico the morning of June 12, 2006"


CloudSat


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Jun 21 2006 10:12 PM
Re: Twins...again??

That wave's down by Panama and will bring rain to Nicaragua.

dem05
(User)
Wed Jun 21 2006 10:41 PM
Re: Twins...again??

Folks...Sorry to break in with an unrelated weather topic, but several posters here are from the Port Charlotte area and thought I'd post news links of tonights tornado (I didn't know how/ of if I could start another forum)
There are reports of minor injuries from this tornado at this time. Assessments ongoing.
NBC 2: http://www.nbc-2.com/index.shtml
Sarasota Herald Tribune: http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

It should really be placed in "other weather events" but I will leave it for now all things taken into account...


HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Jun 22 2006 02:14 AM
Re: Twins...again??

i've gotta adopt that shorthand for heights that tony is using... gets the information across fast. don't need to repeat his analysis of what is going on at various levels of the atmosphere out where our disturbance is camped.... it's pretty much on the button. you can see it in the visible and ir2 loops as well as a fair depiction of the same things in model initializations.
thursday the upper air currents around the system should act a little less hostile as far as shearing the convection around, while continuing to support flashes of convection. on the whole the disturbance has kept active convection with good consistency, and is more or less in a synoptically favorable area to persist if not become more organized. there has been some westward movement with the mid-level vortices, drifting out of the convective masses... so maybe heights to the north are rising and trying to push the whole thing westward finally. this agrees with what the models have been predicting to a degree. now comes the part where we find out if some kind of low will actually organize and start pushing surface pressures down, before it reaches the southeast coast. there should be 2-3 days for it to organize.
not sure what to make of the model depictions of other low pressure areas forming further east... as they'd be developing in a synoptically less favorable area (south/southwest of a big upper low). the upper low is shown with a surface reflection out near bermuda as well, but not with any development. the NAM still tries to get a disturbance up to the yucatan--probably overdone and no other support. the other globals have backed away from disturbed weather getting into the gulf (except perhaps the shell of our current bahamas interest after crossing florida).
as far as development goes, we're not really any closer than we were last night in terms of progress. the system persists, though... it'll be worth watching all the way in even if it doesn't develop. this may end up being the twin of the near-tropical system that ran through the mid-atlantic late last june, showing signs of rapid organization just as it moved into north carolina.
HF 0714z22june


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jun 22 2006 07:13 AM
Re: Twins...again??

Quote:

Boy... NASA got some cool new toys this year.....thought this would interest some folks... Tax dollars at work.... WOW! Pretty cool images i have seen so far

"NASA's new CloudSat satellite captured its first tropical storm, Alberto, as it spun over the Gulf of Mexico the morning of June 12, 2006"


CloudSat




Oh now THAT'S cool!!!!!!


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jun 22 2006 07:21 AM
Re: Twins...again??

Quote:

Folks...Sorry to break in with an unrelated weather topic, but several posters here are from the Port Charlotte area and thought I'd post news links of tonights tornado (I didn't know how/ of if I could start another forum)
There are reports of minor injuries from this tornado at this time. Assessments ongoing.
NBC 2: http://www.nbc-2.com/index.shtml
Sarasota Herald Tribune: http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

It should really be placed in "other weather events" but I will leave it for now all things taken into account... [/quote

I created one there.

I'm going to see if I can find the NWS report when it comes out today. (They are supposed to release one today.) It's supposedly 1 F0 or F1 that skipped around.

twizted sizter
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jun 22 2006 10:17 AM
Possible invest....

Well as always persistance is the key. Haven't looked at all runs or imagery yet this a.m. but obviously our little blob(s) in the Bahamas area is/are hanging in.

NHC posted possible low level invest @ 24/1800z near 27.5N 79.0W.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Jun 22 2006 10:51 AM
Re: Possible invest....

Yea,you can not have something hang around in those waters for this amount of time,without something happening.Last year the 2nd storm formed June 28th.

MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jun 22 2006 11:23 AM
Re: Off SA

What's this??

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Looks like a twist starting in the BB (Bahamas Blob) too...

MM


Lsr1166
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Jun 22 2006 11:28 AM
Re:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Jun 22 2006 11:55 AM
slight change of tone

the nhc verdict on the system has changed just a little bit. the latest twd posted illustrates part of this, while the possible investigation mentioned off the east coast of florida for saturday afternoon in the recon plan takes care of the rest. the tone is now gone from "probably nothing" to "possibly something".
there is probably still just a surface trough (with two maxes on it), a couple of corresponding mid-level lows, and only a marginal environment aloft. changes in organization over the past few days have been very subtle, with the trend over time bieng slow organization.
forecast models still showing only weak-if-any development. the current groupthink is that an inverted trough or possibly a weak low will drift into east florida over around the space coast. there are enough of the globals suggesting something else will try stirring (note the second oncoming wave with a signature visible around puerto rico at the present) east of that and following it in the same weak/pathetic state. the forecast models don't advertise anything really getting it's act together at all... given this a weak tropical system doesn't sound like the worst kind of news... all i ever hear coming out of florida is complaint about how dry it is.
no matter what happens, probably some good rain on the way for a lot of people. may still be some places that alberto took good care of that aren't in the mood for more. expect by the middle of next week for the mid-atlantic to have spotty flooding problems.
HF 1655z22june


Bill-n-StPeteFL
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Jun 22 2006 12:30 PM
Re: slight change of tone

"the NHC verdict on the system has changed just a little bit. the latest twd posted illustrates part of this, while the possible investigation mentioned off the east coast of florida for saturday afternoon in the recon plan takes care of the rest. the tone is now gone from "probably nothing" to "possibly something".

Did they not do this with Alberto as well?


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jun 22 2006 12:46 PM
Re: slight change of tone

Quote:

given this a weak tropical system doesn't sound like the worst kind of news... all i ever hear coming out of florida is complaint about how dry it is.
no matter what happens, probably some good rain on the way for a lot of people. may still be some places that alberto took good care of that aren't in the mood for more. expect by the middle of next week for the mid-atlantic to have spotty flooding problems.
HF 1655z22june




Yeah, yeah, I know, we're a bunch of whiners. It's too dry, it's too wet, it's too windy, it's not windy enough.

At least we don't have to shovel snow! *LOL*


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Jun 22 2006 12:48 PM
Re: slight change of tone

"Did they not do this with Alberto as well?"

That is the nature of these things.. persistence in a dynamical environment will lead to changes which could manifest in development.

I see a SW'rly component to the circulation on the vislble which would indicate a broad surface low, but there is still upper shear which will impede rapid development...I think 2/10 on intensification.


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jun 22 2006 12:50 PM
Re: slight change of tone

Quote:

"the NHC verdict on the system has changed just a little bit. the latest twd posted illustrates part of this, while the possible investigation mentioned off the east coast of florida for saturday afternoon in the recon plan takes care of the rest. the tone is now gone from "probably nothing" to "possibly something".

Did they not do this with Alberto as well?




You can't really go by past storms in this regard. The NHC is going to be super-conscious of media and public scrutiny of their discussions and forecasts. Unless/until something develops, we can only take each day as it comes. If something starts to "bloom," then it's 12 hours. If something develops for sure, it's every 6 hours watching.

I decided that this year, I refuse to stress about it, I can't spend 6 months of my year obsessing over what's going to happen. That's why I'm trying to educate myself and learn the "science" end of it. And it's why I'm actively decluttering my house, so that if I have to evacuate, I know I've got everything I need to save and the rest, well, I've got insurance. (I think. As long as Citizens doesn't screw up now that Poe's in receivership!)


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jun 22 2006 01:08 PM
Re: slight change of tone

Rain... yeah we got 3 inches and it wasnt worth a darn. Fires are still everywhere and we are right back where we were a month ago as far as rain deficit goes.
As for the NHC they are overcautious this year more than usual so we have to keep checking in every day to see whats up.
As far as the idea that the more you know the less you freak... I wouldnt necessarily say that is so, at least not with me. The more I know the more i check out sites and learn even more and try to figure out whats going on. I watch this stuff 10 times more than I did 2 years ago.

I'll say one thing, I really dont like the 12z cmc. I know we often discount that model cuz it invariably overdoes everything but it was pretty good from the beginning with Alberto so I am checking it regularly lately.


ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jun 22 2006 01:21 PM
Bahama Disturbance

Just wanted to throw this out there.. I think we will see a similiarity (note..I only see one) in this disturbance just like we saw with Alberto before it ever became a TD or TS

I think this wave does look a little more impressive on Satellite right now than it has since we started watching this. That being said, Alberto during the day looked like something would come of it, then die out overnight. Forecasters/Meteorolgists/posters on this board would write it off "looks bad now." Then 12 hours later, we'd see a better organized storm. I think we'll go through this for a day or two with this area of interest.

This morning's disucssion from the NHC caught me a little off guard this morning. And not that I haven't been giving this storm the attention it deserves..but I will say now that I am watching this much closer now...

Also, 12z model runs are in better agreement this time....hmmmm


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Jun 22 2006 01:43 PM
Re: Bahama Disturbance

I agree with you Elizabeth, don't think this area will become more than a TD as moves to the NW , by then be to close to land.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Thu Jun 22 2006 02:12 PM
Re: Bahama Disturbance

Hey folks, been away for a couple of days, hence no recent posts!
Here's my thoughts on the system to the NE of the Bahamas: It looks very disorganised on the satellite imagery, but there are indications of a LLCC to the ENE of Gr Abaco Island, and several low level swirls are also evident to the N of the possible LLCC. Not wanting to draw comparisons, but this is how Alberto appeared for at least the early stage of his life! Not sure on development, havent had a chance to go over the models yet. However, it has persisted for several days now, and the tone coming from NHC has also changed from a 'Not Gonna Happen' to a 'wait a moment...'. Will post more later once i've had chance to look at more of the available data.

Kind regards


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Jun 22 2006 02:15 PM
Re: Bahama Disturbance

looks like there is a small vortice around 31n 74w.. moving just south if west (wsw) no convection with it though...

also they moved the G-12 floater to the west some....
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

wider view of area...
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgevis.html

closer Higher Res view... of bahamas
SATATL Floater 2 Pen State

poor NASA... go a shuttle on the PAD... Launch Date July 1st, 2006.... Figures we get something hanging around on the east coast... this should clear out by next weekend....


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jun 22 2006 02:16 PM
Re: Twins...again??

Quote:

CloudSat




That is simply awesome -- I just hope we eventually get something close to real-time images once a storm's out there.

edit:
Quote:

Quicklook Images





Thank you twice!


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Jun 22 2006 02:19 PM
Re: Twins...again??

CloudSat actually is posting images called "First Look" on there web site as the Sat orbits the earth... I post link when i find it....its appeared to be shooting images the whole time.....


**correction its called "Quick Look"****

CloudSat's site at
Colorado State University:
Quicklook Images


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Jun 22 2006 02:47 PM
Re: Twins...again??

Interesting notes form Miami this afternoon:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006


HOWEVER...FORECAST DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NAM MODEL MOVES A 500 MB LOW
WEST DIRECTLY TOWARD MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. BY SATURDAY EVENING
IT IS OVER THE METRO SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS IT TOWARD
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS INCREASES OUR MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY AND THE
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED JUST OFF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A DISORGANIZED BROAD LOW ACROSS THE
PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THE GFS WHICH IS PREFERRED ALSO MOVES A 500
MB LOW WEST TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BUT SLOWER...ARRIVING SUNDAY. AT
THE SURFACE THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE APPEARANCE BUT
DEVELOPS MULTIPLE WEAK CENTERS EAST OF THE PENINSULA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IT ALSO HAS A BROAD DISORGANIZED LOW CENTER OVER THE
PENINSULA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WHICH MERGES WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY. WILL THEREFORE STAY
WITH BELOW CLIMATOLOGY POPS AND A BACKING SURFACE WIND FLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN ABOVE CLIMO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND BACK TO CLIMO THEREAFTER. WILL
NEED TO STAY UP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CASE IT SLOWS DOWN AND REMAINS
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC LONGER THAN NOW EXPECTED.


also good to see the how some NWS mets think on things... when there not even a few hundred miles from each other up the coast...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006


.LONG TERM...
WELL THE QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IS WHAT WILL THE UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE WAVE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS DO? OVERALL THINK THE
SYSTEM WILL TRY SOME FOR TYPE OF SUB-TROPICAL/HYBRID ORGANIZATION AND
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE COAST BUT THINK THE NAM IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IT. JUST REMEMBERING BACK TO ALBERTO NAM HAD A
NICE LOOKING LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM...HEADED FOR THE TEXAS
COAST! THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT SOMETHING SIMILAR HERE SO OVERALL
PREFER THE GFS HANDLING OF AN OPEN SURFACE WAVE AND LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUN INTO MONDAY.
GFS POPS LOOK REASONABLE UNTIL WE SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES OFFSHORE.
RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TO BE SOMETHING THAT WILL ADD
SOME MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA.


hmm.... just sit and wait game....


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Thu Jun 22 2006 02:54 PM
Re: Twins...again??

In simple terms it may rain; it may not.

Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jun 22 2006 03:38 PM
Re: Twins...again??

I think the Bahama system is tenacious. Whatever it decides to do it will be interesting.

HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Jun 22 2006 03:45 PM
little things that matter

there are three primary areas where low level vorticity is apparent and where a system might try to focus stronger inflow/rising motions/increased convection.. the whole works of an embryonic tropical cyclone.
number one is to the north of the others, sort of the reflection of yesterday's convective blow up that has blown out to the west... roughly 400 mi east of jacksonville.. that is unlikely to develop, but is sort of dragging the upper end of the surface trough in the area along and taking its inflow channel more into the feature to its south. sheared, nonconvective; it won't develop, but appears to be feeding the one to its south.
number two is what rich b was mentioning a minute ago. it's about 200 mi east of abaco, a bit sheared, but along a definite wind shift line and the focus of some convective activity. convection is orienting around it in rows like vestigial feeder bands right now. it appears to be just along/north of a vortmax up around h30 and above... which may help it organize just a little, dependent on how it evolves. this is what i'd favor for our potential system. much of the convective activity is southeast of the center, almost all in one roughly linear band. it may sort of 'hold in place' while a mini-fujiwhara type interaction occurs with the number one vortex to the north... this is probably aiding its convective organization at the moment.
number three is the wildcard coming out of the east.. out around 22/64. it's the upper end of an easterly wave with a noticeable low level turning, probably h85-h70, in the visibles. convection is increasing today and it's moving into the sharply diffluent area ahead of the number two vortmax. if the number two system fails to organize it may become dominant due to an overall more favorable synoptic situation.. and even if the number two does develop it can serve as a hindrance, robbing inflow and potential energy out of the warm, moisture laden flow out of the tropics.
a couple of the globals view both of these features as potential development candidates. number two is what is being mentioned in the TWOs, and what has more momentum at this point.. but i would not ignore number three.
as the disturbed weather persists i'm sliding more into the development camp. development is not imminent, but it's still slowly progressing in that direction. think we may be seeing a development later tomorrow.
HF 2045z22june


Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Thu Jun 22 2006 04:37 PM
Re: little things that matter

There is decidedly more amplitude to the inverted trough this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows more veering of the flow about the trough axis - i.e. the Cu field is showing more N-S component to motion ahead of the trough axis and more S-N motion behind it. As noted by others, there have been numerous rather transient swirls rotating about the trough - this was not occurring at this time Wednesday. This is a definite indicator that the low to mid level cyclonic vorticity (spin) in that general area is increasing, even though the pattern is, for lack of a better term, a swirly mess.

Convectively, the area is still an even uglier mess. Just about all the thunderstorm activity is east of the surface trough axis...not in the area of greatest low level convergence, but instead in the area of stronger upper divergence to the east of the upper trough axis. Hence it is still dynamically (jet) forced and there is very little tropically forced convection ongoing.

Still, the fact remains that the trough did indeed sharpen owing primarily to the ongoing jet-forced convection/ascent. Spinup into at least a weak/broad closed low is looking a little more likely today. However, even if it closes off, the system would still be so disorganized w/r/t both convection and vorticity that one would be loath to call it a TC if it does, at least early on.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Jun 22 2006 05:23 PM
Re: little things that matter

I see a possible circulation just south of the disorganized circulation. I still think Beryl may happen but it will be very week like all the other Beryls have been in the past. Will bring much needed rain to Florida. It will be a surprise if this storm does an Alberto and strengthen near hurricane status. Too much wind shear. I see a weak to maybe a 50 mph. Tropical Storm Beryl headed to either Daytona Beach or Melbourne. It deffinatly bears watching

MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jun 22 2006 05:34 PM
Re: little things that matter

Also, what is this in the Eastlant, has been organizing the last couple of days...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg

MM


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jun 22 2006 05:45 PM
Re: Twins...again??

WHOA! Cool! I went to the one for today (14:57 UTC) and clicked on frames 16 and 17, and it looks like it's picking up one of the tw's in the Atlantic. TOO COOL!!!!

You know what, NASA ROCKS!!! *LOL*


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Thu Jun 22 2006 06:18 PM
Re: Twins...again??

OK,
i have had a chance to look over some of the model data and it seems as if our little friend NE of the Bahamas is gaining some support. CMC tracks a broad low over the Florida Peninsula, with the WRF experimental taking a deeper and more defined system towards the georgia coast in around 3-4 days. Given the current organisation of the system, it seems as if whatever may develop will likely be broad and relatively weak, especially at first. With most forecasts taking the system west and either inland over the SE US or at least across the FL peninsula, land interaction could also put the brakes on development. On the other hand, most models to seem to agree that there is some chance for this feature to hang out over water for longer - and therefore it does get the possibilitiy of more development. however, with visible imagery going within the next hour or two, i guess we will have to wait til tomoro to find out whats happening for sure. Interesting that this system is currently not labelled as an INVEST, though i'm sure thats only a matter of time too!

Regards


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Jun 22 2006 06:33 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Re: Local News Interested [Re: Wingman51]
#67138 - Wed Jun 21 2006 06:37 PM
Edit post Edit Reply to this post Reply Reply to this post Quote Quick Reply Quick Reply

Tom actually said at 6:18 P.M. "watching for possible development" did not show too much opinion as to development likely or not. From watching him, and meeting him briefly recently, I think he doesn't want to jump the gun, but thinks in these crazy times that development isa real possibility, who knows.

From my experience or lake thereof over the last several years, and living in the path of three storms in 14 months time, I feel almost like here in South Brevard, that sooner or later, probably sooner we are doomed! Hopefully I am WRONG though.

In my opinion only!!!! I think this system will be at best a depression and hit the Melbourne, Florida area as a similar or weaker to Alberto type storm, probably weaker though. Don't dust off your generators yet, do change the filter and oil soon, as it is probably just a matter of 4 to 8 weeks before any real chance that you'll need them.

Those that know this stuff well, do you know the chances of something popping NE of the Bahama Islands and heading my way in the next 90 hrs or so?


Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Thu Jun 22 2006 06:44 PM
Re: Twins...again??

Having had the chance to pore over more of the global model guidance, it's becoming apparent to me that the H25 trough, currently centered just NE of the northern Bahamas, is likely going to remain entwined with whatever does or doesn't spin up at the surface. The upper feature is forecast to remain more or less intact over the next 2-3 days, remaining quasi-stationary through about 12Z SAT before retograding westward into Florida, just ahead of the surface trough or low. If this pans out, then it will stay close enough to keep some upper level shear over the system.

On the one hand this is less than ideal for true TC formation, while on the other, the shear looks like it may be somewhat divergent, which tends to aid/ventilate convection. Hence, if any type of closed low was to form, upper conditions might be more conducive for a more hybrid, baroclinically enhanced (BE), type low to form.

At this point, it's hard to argue with the strong signal from most of the guidance that at the very least, an inverted trough will be bringing some much needed rainfall to Florida for the latter half of the weekend.


SebastianLou
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jun 22 2006 06:56 PM
Re: Twins...again??

So, so early, to be even concerned with this stuff! I guess this will be Hurricane Preseason 2006 of sorts, like mini camp.

SebastianLou
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jun 22 2006 07:09 PM
POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA

I think this will get to almost TS status by Saturday, and hit South Brevard by Early Sunday morning with winds between 35 and 60mph, probably just at or just above TS status, with locally heavy rainfull in excess of 3 to 6 inches.

Can you provide your reasoning behind your post


Storm Cooper
(User)
Thu Jun 22 2006 07:16 PM
Re: POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA

I posted last evening that I agreed that the global models were getting better for some sort of development.... now the ECMWF is showing a hint...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Jun 22 2006 08:20 PM
you said this the other day HF

I still don't understand how it forms in this strong a wind pattern. There seems to be too much shear and yet there is talk it is something forming at low levels.

TWC is ramped up to hype development and models are jumping on it.

Explain how something forms in this shear and yet... yes Alberto did but barely..

" CMC runs, but has them developing in high-shear zones in a quasi-baroclinic fashion. don't buy it."


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jun 22 2006 08:22 PM
Re: POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA

Hello again everyone! Looks like another interesting year. See similar patterns already with slow persistent development of systems. How long have we been watching this one? 4-5 days in same area. Here is the latest from TPC, they mimic model consensus:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif

You can get 24hr and 72hr sfc maps just change the 48 in the address bar to whatever hour you want.


Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Thu Jun 22 2006 08:55 PM
Re: you said this the other day HF

One point to keep in mind...

Just because upper level conditions aren't very conducive for a tropical cyclone to form doesn't necessarily mean that a non-tropical or hybrid type cyclone can't form, if that shear is divergent, and lowers surface pressures via dynamically forced ascent.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Thu Jun 22 2006 09:09 PM
Re: TAFB and the ECMWF

Honesty, I have never compared these two products until now but I noticed the TAFB surface forecasts (24, 48 & 72 hr) looks a lot like the ECMWF run I had metioned a little back... just caught my eye... not sure if thoes guys use that model in their forecasts or not....

TAFB stuff:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb-atl.shtml


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jun 22 2006 09:13 PM
Re: little things that matter

Not a whole lot of time, but wanted to check in with some comments. Mostly, it's an amalgam of what HF has mentioned over the past day or so. Entirely concur with the "little things" detailed in the post I'm replying to. I am not very bullish on this system developing, however. I see a persistent upper-low that shows no signs of weakening or moving out of the picture. With most of last year's developments, we saw the upper lows weaken and move out of the way. It's helping to create a favorable divergent environment to the NE of the upper low, as Tony mentioned, but most of the lower level energy is focused further west. Stuck between two ridges with an overall blocky pattern, the upper low is going to have a tough time shearing out of getting out of the way.

Models are in good agreement on the entire complex slowly moving toward Florida and then hooking a hard right up the coast. The most likely scenario, in my view, is the one outlined by HF a day or so ago -- that of a weak low developing as the system scoots up the coast toward the mid-Atlantic, much like an unclassified feature late last June. If this were August, it might have a better shot of getting going. Alas, however, it's June, and the pattern isn't all that condusive to development. Not out of the realm of possibility, but still think it's more of a rainmaker more than anything else.

Despite Alberto, many areas haven't seen a whole lot of rain since then -- here in Tallahassee, the airport saw it's first recorded rainfall since the storm made landfall, but most parts of town missed out -- so much of the region could use more rain. We're still ~10" in the hole for the year, at least here in the Panhandle. I'm sure the peninsula isn't that much better off.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jun 22 2006 09:15 PM
Re: TAFB and the ECMWF

TAFB will use a lot of the NCEP suite of numerical guidance (WaveWatch III, GFS, etc.) along with whatever else is available to make their forecasts. Also, their work is some of that in which human forecasters can add a lot of value to the forecasts, so you see a lot of that influence in there at times. The ECMWF has, on and off, been one of the better models globally, so I wouldn't be surprised if some of its results made it into their forecasts.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Jun 22 2006 09:33 PM
Roundup

This thread looks more like a pre-flight briefing for the next three days!
I can't get this much information from TV or wire services.

Clark, HF, and Tony have all given the system somewhat of a thumbs down on Tropical development.
As was mentioned. Hybrid, or sub-tropical development may occur.

I've just finished reading the afternoon and evening Area Forecast DIscussions from all of the FL Penisula offices, except Key West.
At this time, none are mentioning anything above a "possible" surface Low developing. Most of them appeared to be going out on a limb in mentioning development to that level. I'm not speaking for them. These are just my interpretations of the AFDs.

I've also checked the Discussions from the Hydrological Prediction Center and NCEP.
They are of the same consensus. Basically, little to no chance for Tropical development.

As stated above that does not rule in, or rule out, sub-tropical development.


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Thu Jun 22 2006 10:45 PM
Bahamas stuff

Clark...I agree with most of what you have said. I do not believe a tropical storm can come from this. Nor did I believe that Katrina could have formed from what she did either....basically in the same area. So, what do I know?
I do know that it is still only June and a Katrina won't happen this month. I do however agree that a rain situation is on the way for parched areas of Florida that had no benefit from Alberto.
I am on the east coast of FL in Stuart at 27.16N...80.2W. Skies are mostly clear, wind has increased from calm to about 15mph steady out of the SSE with a 1015mb reading right now. Expecting a mostly southerly wind tomorrow.
And the really weird part is I just spoke with a friend in Palm Beach County...not 25 miles south of my location and he has winds out of the NE.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Jun 22 2006 11:28 PM
Re: Bahamas stuff

I don't think must of a system will comeout of this MLC, The models long range are showing something in the Western Gulf in 8 to 9 days, that maybe a problem

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 23 2006 12:28 AM
Tropical Storm Beryl in the making and more...

Starting to find a low level circulation. Beryl may just be on the way folks. I believe that it will become TD2 in 24-48 hours. The NHC will probably put up an area of interest by the 00 model run. Interesting to see what the GFDL model picks up on this. Looking at this reminds me of Alberto. This ugly looking thing may become a organized storm. Imagine it's August or September, cat. 2 or 3 Hurricane Beryl would be the case! You just never know. After a year like last year you just will never know what will happen these days. I believe 20 or more storms will be the number of storms this year. They predicted the same amount of storms that was predicted this year last year and look what happened. So much early signs of African waves. You just never know. Just remember, we learned from last year that you can't always depends on the models. Think about it. Keep watching what should be the new " Area of Interest "

HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Jun 23 2006 12:36 AM
Re: Bahamas stuff

i'm leaning a bit more on it doing something, as far as developing. of course, all the low level stuff can get blown out ahead of the convective area and the whole thing can collapse. think it'll keep digging and grinding away, though, while the upper air pattern slowly bends around into something that starts helping it more than hurting it.
right now it actually looks a bit worse for the wear. on the ir2 you can see that the good looking low level vortmax from earlier is detached and blowing out. the idea about it developing tomorrow, though, leaned on the feature from earlier today holding together. doesn't look like that panned out.
might start trying to consolidate a little further north, perhaps. convection seems to be refiring there, as it has much of the day.
like tony says, this isn't a purely tropical-origin system. development in the subtropics rarely is... and most of it early in the season tends to happen closer to the middle-latitudes.
impressive wave moving over central america. the eastpac has been quiet... some models pointing to this being the next thing over there. actually, the entire pacific has been quiet. might mean the atlantic will be doing most of the production this year.
SOI has pulsed negative again, like it has earlier this month. there is a strong possibility of pattern forced development in the near future. climatological norms and the forecast synoptic pattern will most likely cause any development to be close in to the united states.
HF 0536z23june


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 23 2006 12:53 AM
Re: Bahamas stuff

HF...You are right that this system is developing and it is not a truly "tropical" thing. So now what do we call it? During hurricane season....in the tropical Atlantic? I can't hear about another hybrid system.
The center of circulation is just east of Great Abaco and if projected track is correct then I will most likely be the one to tell you all about it.....if this rainy area should decide to move my way.
My winds have shifted now to the NE at 15mph with gusts. No rain in sight yet...but one can hope!
it isn't frontally associated so it'll get tropical or subtropical designation. if it has an expansive windfield and no cdo probably subtropical. otherwise tropical. -HF


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 23 2006 02:03 AM
I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

It's happening already. Upper level winds are now dying down and Beryl is now developing. I see a newly formed closed low level circulation and convection is really now starting to burst east and northeast of the circulation. WOW!! This may happen to be like Alberto. I think it will become a deppression tommorrow by the way it's looking right now. Look how the convection just starts to burst out. Tommorrow mornings image will be very interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 23 2006 02:12 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

Just need to thank you for the rainbow float. Definitely a flare going on right now. How about by 11AM?
I think so.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 23 2006 02:14 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

deffinatly! You know how all the time these so called weak systems flare up big time overnight and here we go tonight! I think Beryl is finally on the first stage of development.

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 23 2006 05:28 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

Not sure what you're seeing at this point, the system is rotating around an upper level low oh... 26N 73W or so, There are little low level ... vorticies one at 27N 76W and another at 30N 77W, neither of which have any convection. Now if there's a LLC hidden near the convection, it might... *might* spin up a bit, however the organization is still horrible.

I'd said last night that it had a one in three shot of developing (maybe even as high as 40 percent) in 48 hours. but as HF mentioned above, the LLC centers aren't holding convection. Right now i'd put development chances at zero. There are just too many things pulling against it in the near term. after 36 hours, i'd give it a shot if it can maintain convection. But we'll see.

At this point I'm not holding my breath. (which will promptly mean it'll fire up and become a TD in the next 12 hours with the way my predictions go

-Mark


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 23 2006 06:42 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

You are absolutely correct! I expect in way less than 12 hours. But who the heck knows anymore.
Here's what Avila says this morning:
THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

I respect Avila...but this is not going anywhere with him. Then 6 hours from now it will all change!
View: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

We need the rain here. Won't be much more than that. But please bring it!


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 23 2006 07:12 AM
Bahamian Showers

I know Avila is monitoring this board. So, if you wouldn't mind....please just blast the forecast you have hidden inside...please!

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 23 2006 07:14 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

Ok, first light visible imagery is out, and it shows we still have a very disorganised system with multiple low level swirls. One is located just east of Great Abaco, and another is located due north of Great Abaco. Neither of these has any significant convection associated with it. Rather, the deep convection remains well to the east of borth low-level swirls. Not convinced anything will happen today at least, not unless we see some serious organisation.

Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 23 2006 07:21 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

I know. Sad that these systems can develop like this. Even without accurate met forecasting. Watch and see by 11AM Saturday.

ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 23 2006 07:34 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

Unofruntately, I don't think intensification and organization is out of the question. Even though things aren't all that impressive right now, a change could come quicker than forecasted... This afternoon will give us a better idea if this wave could become a TD or not... ( I lean more towards a TD at some point before Sat PM)....

Edited to add... 0z models-just about all of them do bring a closed low across FL but different landfall locations.. ranging from Ft. Lauderdale area to Melbourne...


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 23 2006 08:03 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

I'm still not impressed by what I'm seeing on sat and radar. It might intensify to a TD, but I have the feeling it's going to be hanging onto that distinction (if it makes it there) for dear life. It just looks too disorganized with the shear.

Now, if the shear drops off dramatically, sure, it's got a much better chance. I just think it's too early in the season. And it looks like where it's at, the SSTs start dropping off a little, so it's not going to have the fuel it would have if it was a GOM storm like Alberto was. As it drifts further west it gets a little warmer, but....who knows.

I just really think from what I'm seeing that it's got a much better chance of being a welcomed rainmaker than it does of being a BU (boarder-upper. )


HURRICANELONNY
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 23 2006 08:14 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

For the last week they've been talking about this so called trough. The enviroment is nothing like last year. I don't think it will come of anything but much needed rain in some parts of the southeast. The models are just spitting out lows everywhere. I wouldn't put much emphasis on them till some type of LLC is present. Hope it rains here in S. Fl. My lawn needs it.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 23 2006 08:33 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

All the local news here is saying we're going to get some much needed rain starting Saturday night. From what I see, it may be something, but something we need.

Multi-Decadal Signal
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 23 2006 08:37 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!

Be careful of what you wish; we are in rainfall deficit now but that could turn on a dime or two. I'd go easy on the rain dances for our State of Humidity , AKA Florida; The Rash State...

Our condo grounds are a tad brown and sere but please God, nothing like Ohio has just experienced... .


Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 23 2006 08:40 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

It appears a broad LLC has formed near 27N-74W with several swirls rotating around it on the NW and SW periphery. Latest VIS SAT shows the convection getting pulled toward the broad center from the east and the system is generally starting to wrap up. Looks like low shear over the the broad center now so some better organization is possible today/tomorrow. Still some dry air being entrained from the W-SW and it looks like another lop-sided system similar to Alberto may form. Models generally take it west across the FL peninsula, either over the S and Central peninsula. Most models then slide it N either along the west coast or inland from the coast. All models keep the system weak.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 23 2006 08:43 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Ladies and Gentlemen we now have an investigation (91L). Here it is:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


ElizabethH
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 23 2006 08:54 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

I was just wondering about that.... Looks like we'll have some answers by this afternoon

Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 23 2006 09:20 AM
91L Invest

Yes. A really sweet snap of this little band of showers that are supposedly a couple hundred miles East of the Bahamas!
Notice the many varied vortices involved at the surface? I guess this system has no surface reflection or I would have been advised.
This nonsense is getting real stale for an old tracker!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 23 2006 09:24 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

This is a large broad low that has cut off from the trough at the mid and upper levels over the last day, but has not drilled down to the surface (look at the latest quikscat). Normal to create an invest as it is so close to land.

Forecasts now bring it NW, inland over FL as an upper low, over the weekend.


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 23 2006 09:32 AM
Re: 91L Invest

Bahamas low slow to grow
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:19 AM EDT on June 23, 2006
A non-tropical low pressure system just northeast of the Bahama Islands now has a surface circulation, and is expected to slowly grow more organized as it moves west-northwest towards Florida over the next two days.

Well, Dr. Masters says a surface reflection exists and I see it also.


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 23 2006 09:33 AM
Re: 91L Invest

Me too, I think


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 23 2006 09:53 AM
Attachment
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

Thre together a little "met rendering" on what I see this morning based on vis and WV imagery.

Have a look-see...

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/200606231215.jpg


I think the point to be made this morning is that we're starting to see a little more popcorn type convection near the wave axis as opposed to east of it, a sign of increasing low level convergence, and a slightly more favorable environment (w/r/t both shear and thermodynamics)

I suspect my first shift back on Sunday morning (11P-7A) will be a little busier than this past week.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 23 2006 10:21 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring

That is so nice that you did that...picture worth a thousand words. Thanks for your good eyes. I did not see the low drifting south and did not see the growing low level convergence, but now I can see it clearly, plus learned something new to use in future.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 23 2006 10:45 AM
Beryl slowly finally starting to organize!

TWC said that hurricane hunters are going to investigate the system saturday. I believe we will have a named storm by then. Yesterday it looked like a cold front, now it looks more symetrical. More of a spin. Theres deffinatly a LLC. Just need to see what happens and I still cant get the GFDL model on this.

NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 23 2006 10:51 AM
Re: Beryl slowly finally starting to organize!

No one can. the gfdl is run partially off the gfs so they have to wait for the lastest info there also the gfdl doesnt run on systems until they are numbered or named so it will be a few hours yet.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 23 2006 11:00 AM
Re: Beryl slowly finally starting to organize!

The system remains porly organized but is now getting a broad west wind in closer to the center... Upper winds are becoming more favorible and the system has no reason not to develop except for some dry air over florida. I expect a TD by tomorrow and probably a TS before landfall...Landfall points are hard right now as it still isnt well defined...and until a center can be identified...the system could make landfall from Miami to Daytona.... but dont expect anything more then a tropical storm and expect the system to turn NW nearing florida around the ridge sliding further into the atlantic to its N and NE. Landfall time frame looks like Sunday afternoon or evening.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 23 2006 11:04 AM
No longer a trough?

Well according to the 12z Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis we now have a 1013mb low. This is the first time this system has been identified as a defined low centre on the ATSA. At 06z it was a trough. It does seem to be showing some signs of organisation, so it might do something - possibly later today. Will be interesting to see what the 1130AM TWO has to say...

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 23 2006 11:23 AM
TD or Sub-TD?

Looks like NHC might be getting on the 'its gonna develop' band wagon. Given its improvement in organisation and improving upper-level conditions they are going for possible tropical depression or subtropical depression developmnent within the next 24 - 36 hours... hmmm...

Lsr1166
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jun 23 2006 11:58 AM
Re: TD or Sub-TD?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 23 2006 12:05 PM
Re: No longer a trough?

Quote:

Well according to the 12z Atlantic Tropical Surface Analysis we now have a 1013mb low. This is the first time this system has been identified as a defined low centre on the ATSA. At 06z it was a trough. It does seem to be showing some signs of organisation, so it might do something - possibly later today. Will be interesting to see what the 1130AM TWO has to say...




This is what I had posted earlier. The TAFB 1205Z TWD does mention a mid and ULL has cut off from the trough. Quikscat still only shows the surface trough...there is still no LLC.

Jack's TWO says the expected.

NHC is correct in not identifying the potential for development before it is there. They are not behind the curve on anything; much the opposite.


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 23 2006 12:14 PM
Re: No longer a trough?

It would appear from the latest vis imagery loops that there maybe a better defined surface circulation developing east of Great Abaco Island. Its difficult to see for sure as there is also an increase in convective activity in this region. If this trend continues we *might* even get a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement, especially as its tracking slowly towards the west - putting the northern Bahamas in the firing line first.

Tony Cristaldi
(NWS Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 23 2006 12:21 PM
Re: No longer a trough?

Quote:

It would appear from the latest vis imagery loops that there maybe a better defined surface circulation developing east of Great Abaco Island. Its difficult to see for sure as there is also an increase in convective activity in this region. If this trend continues we *might* even get a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement, especially as its tracking slowly towards the west - putting the northern Bahamas in the firing line first.




I pretty much concur here. There is much better surface inflow/convergence into this area (circled), about which there are several weak vortices (maked "X") rotating.

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/0606231532G12I01.jpg

Also, the upper low has dropped SW a scosh, placing this area in a more favorable pattern of low to moderate, but more importantly divergent upper level shear. The upper low's position is obvious on water vapor imagery, however, if you have a keen eye, you can make out it's position on vis imagery if you follow the pattern of convective CI blowoff.


Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 23 2006 12:25 PM
Re: TD or Sub-TD?

From our local (Indian River, FL) EM office

For most of the week, a large upper level low pressure system has been meandering northeast of the northern Bahamas. This area has a broad area of low pressure and most of the convection remains towards the east. Also, upper level winds have not been favorable for any tropical development. Over the next 24 hours or so, conditions will be marginal for any chance of surface low pressure to develop. After 24 hours, the upper level winds will become less hostile and a potential weakness in the high pressure area over the southeast United States will allow this area to begin moving west-northwest. Because of the proximity of this system to the east coast of Florida, everyone should stay informed throughout the weekend should any tropical development occur.

The attached visible satellite shows an upper level system with no indication of a surface low pressure at this time. The attached infrared satellite picture shows storm activity well to the east of the system as shearing winds continue to impact the area. The attached water vapor picture shows an abundance of dry air west of this system. This dry air is hindering any type of development towards the west. The problem today is that none of the forecast conditions indicating a west-northwest movement over the weekend have developed at this time. So, the steering currents cannot be clearly demonstrated with satellite pictures.

While conditions are only marginal for any tropical cyclone development in this area, it is important that everyone remained informed when something is this close to Florida. Even if this system does not develop a surface low pressure area, the broad upper level low will bring showers and thunderstorms to Florida on Sunday if the west movement forecast verifies in the next 24 hours. Many of the thunderstorm cells on Sunday will come from the Atlantic Ocean and move over the peninsula. Therefore, some of these cells may energized before moving over land and become strong thunderstorms. If you observe storm developing, assume severe weather may occur and seek appropriate protective areas.

Should any development occur with this area over the weekend, I will update this message immediately.

Nathan McCollum, C.E.M.
Indian River County Emergency Management
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--Paul S.


firestar_1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 23 2006 12:39 PM
Re: No longer a trough?

Tony,

Thank you for the time and effort you put into these pictures. They sure do help to make things more clear as I learn more about these systems.



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