MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 15 2009 07:30 AM
Tropical Storm Bill Forms from TD#3, 91L in Gulf

2:00 AM Update 16 August 2009
91L is likely to develop sometime today, it is now at a "code red" with >50% chance for development. It is possible to have a TD or TS out of this, but not much more. However a strengthening system in the Gulf is never a good thing, even a weaker one, along the coast.

Those along the Florida Gulf coast/Panhandle will want to watch this one, it could cause some surge along the coast even if the winds aren't all that much.

The system is moving Generally north or just west of north around 15MPH. The water temperatures in the Gulf are well above normal this year, and there is plenty of fuel to spark this if it gets going.

It has the potential to be a surprise to a lot of the Florida Gulf coast tomorrow with a potential Tropical Storm Warning.



Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Melbourne FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|tlh|Tallahassee FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|evx|Northwest Florida Radar}}
Long Term Radar Recording of 91L approach to Panhandle

11:00 PM Update 15 August 2009
Ana appears it may go south of Florida, and may stay weak or even weaken some.

Still there are tropical Storm Watches out for parts of the Leewards, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

Bill's models are trending toward the possibility of staying away from the mainland United States, but its not guaranteed yet. It needs to gain latitude first, and it may move more westward if it stays weaker.

91L in the Gulf looks impressive now but lacks some key components (most notably low level circulation and convection) to make it a Tropical Cyclone. It may become something weak over time, but right now it's just something to watch.

Hopefully these trends continue into next morning.

9:45 PM Update 15 August 2009
The wave/area in the Gulf (was near the Keys) is now being tracked as invest 91L, due to its proximity it should be watched very closely, however right now it still has <30% chance of development as it likely won't be over water long enough to develop.

5:00 PM Update 15 August 2009
The second named storm of the season forms on August 15th from TD#3.

Tropical Storm Watches are now up for the Netherlands Antilles, these include
St. Maarten, Saba, and St. Eustatius.

The wave off Africa may become something within the next day or two as well. No official invests are up for it, however.

2:45 PM Update 15 August 2009
Tropical Depression 3 has formed from what was 90L, and Ana Holds as a low end Tropical Storm.

Ana is moving west, ahead of Ana is a bit of westerly shear, this is taking some of the moisture north and west of it, and also is clearing the dry air for TD#3 behind it. The center is also exposed again. Ana and TD#3 appear to "touch" with the outflow on the visible satellite.

Ana will probably remain weak while the shear affects it. From studying the water vapor and some model runs, it looks like Ana will be more on the southerly side of the forecast cone. This means that it will likely move over the Caribbean islands, giving them lots of rain and some wind, but at the same time prevent it from strengthening. With the dry air, shear, and "grasping" aspect of TD#3 which may catch up to it, Ana may very well fall apart again.

That said the most likely future for Ana is a weak tropical storm, how weak depends on how much interaction it has with the Caribbean islands. It appears, right now, that it'll go south of south Florida, barely. If it weakens much more it may go much further south and west (more on the southern cusp of the cone). If it were to err, I think the NHC may be too far north. Still the uncertainty exists, and I think the cone in general is valid. Intensity completely depends on how well Ana fights the shear and the interaction with land.

Those in South Florida/Keys will want to watch and be ready. There is a good, but not great, chance that they may have some affect from the system. The small size and complex situation make it difficult to predict. I'm not very confident about it right now.

Other indicators for Ana, include changes in the forward motion of TD#3, the location of the Upper Level Low near the Bahamas, and the wave off the Florida Keys (Which itself may be worth watching as it moves into the very soup hot Gulf) Ana is also elongated slightly north/south.



In short keep watch, Ana may well stay south of Florida (southern part of the cone). Those in the Leewards will still want to prepare for a Tropical Storm (Which is to say expect a windy nasty day). Ana is a small storm so if conditions around it change, it could wind up quickly. It will be vital to watch it over the next several days.

TD#3 right now has the better chance to be slightly northward in the Islands. The cone for this one is dead on, I think. Right now somewhere along the east coast is the most likely spot for TD#3.



The wave now coming off Africa may be yet another storm to watch in the next several days.

Original Update
August 15 usually starts up the true peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and this year it happens to be the date the first named storm has formed. Really. Tropical Storm Ana has formed in the Central Atlantic. Heading westward at 16MPH roughly with 40MPH winds.

The good news it's forecast to remain a Tropical Storm throughout the period, and may encounter some westerly shear.

The bad news is that it's heading toward the Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico, into the Bahamas and the edge of the 5 day cone is in Florida. And the system is small and there is some uncertainty with the intensity model. Some models weaken it (like the GFDL), and this would force it more west, But others, such as the HWRF show in becoming a category 2 hurricane. Thus the National Hurricane Center's forecast, at least for 3 days seems good. Beyond that it really could be anywhere in the cone. The relatively small size of the storm will make it very difficult to predict the intensity of the storm, in fact the National Hurricane Center in the discussion has indicated that their current forecast is very uncertain intensity wise and may be on the conservative side.

Those in the Leeward islands of the Caribbean may expect a Tropical Storm Watch later. Those in the east coast of Florida and the rest of the cone will want to keep a very close eye on Ana during the week.

Discuss models and where you think it may go/how strong in the Ana Lounge.




90L also has a very good chance of forming today, advisories on it may start as early as 11AM today.

The wave south of Florida is also worth watching as it moves into the Gulf.

In short this week will be very busy.
[Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Melbourne FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|tlh|Tallahassee FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|evx|Northwest Florida Radar}}
Long Term Radar Recording of 91L approach to Panhandle


Event Related Links

Emergency Management

FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Individual Florida County Emergency Management Websites

Webcams, Video, Audio
WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL - CFHC contributor Jason Kelly broadcasts from here.
WMBB - Panama City Beach, FL
WEAR ABC 3 in Pensacola
NBC 15 / Mobile/Pensacola

Mark Sudduth's Hurricanetrack.com


{{StormCarib}}

{{StormLinks|Ana|02|2|2009|1|Ana}}

{{StormLinks|Bill|03|3|2009|2|Bill}}


Note: Waiting for Skeetobite to update the 91L Graphic, it is showing an older 91L Currently, click the SFWMD link for newer models
{{StormLinks|91L|91|4|2009|3|Invest 91L}}


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 15 2009 07:48 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

I just posted in the previous thread that 90L looks as if classification is imminent. Also the wave in the Florida straits shows a small mid-level rotation in the radar picture and the sat. presentation may merit close attention, especially since the steering over the GOM seems to be to the NNW.
Nice blow up near center of Ana this morning.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 15 2009 07:58 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

A few people are emailing me about the "A" storm heading to south Florida, and i know several of you with Andrew experience are nervous, but there still is some time for Ana to not do that as well. Please just watch it, until we know it's north of the Caribbean in the Bahamas at least.

It's still early, and I know some of you are a bit shocked to see a cone heading that way. But there is still a lot that could happen to keep the storm from being too bad of a problem. It's a good idea to check on your supplies though.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 15 2009 08:13 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

In looking at storms over time with similar starting points listed below, none made it to Fl, not saying Ana won't just something to maybe help your emailers feel a little better ? Its way too early, but worth watching:
Tropical Storm #3, 1870 70 MPH
Hurricane Dog, 1951 115 MPH
Hurricane Gail, 1953 80 MPH
Tropical Storm Edna, 1968 65 MPH
Hurricane Beryl, 1982 75 MPH
Tropical Storm Fran, 1984 65 MPH
Tropical Storm Bret, 1987 50 MPH
Tropical Storm Fran, 1990 40 MPH
Tropical Storm Danny, 1991 50 MPH
Tropical Storm Pablo, 1995 60 MPH
Tropical Storm Gustav, 1996 45 MPH
Tropical Storm Alex, 1998 50 MPH
Hurricane Joyce, 2000 90 MPH
Tropical Storm Dolly, 2002 65 MPH
Tropical Depression #2, 2003 35 MPH


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 15 2009 08:36 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

90L has Dvorak T numbers around 2.5 right now, enough to support a Tropical Storm. They may skip TD#3 and go straight to Bill on that one also.

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 08:56 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

NRL has taken down 90L. So I looked around and they just designated 03L. We now have TD 3 in the very least.

ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:02 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Quote:

In looking at storms over time with similar starting points listed below, none made it to Fl, not saying Ana won't just something to maybe help your emailers feel a little better ? Its way too early, but worth watching:

Hurricane Joyce, 2000 90 MPH
Tropical Storm Dolly, 2002 65 MPH
Tropical Depression #2, 2003 35 MPH
etc



Thanks for the info, Taz...however; being a born and raised Floridian of almost 56 years, when I see a cone directed at my area, I begin to mentally prepare then eventually deploy my plan of action when necessary.


Troy C
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:15 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Quote:

In looking at storms over time with similar starting points listed below, none made it to Fl, not saying Ana won't just something to maybe help your emailers feel a little better ? Its way too early, but worth watching:





The historical map from weather underground has different data. Though their map is for storms passing within 300 miles. I. am not sure there is enough data to use just starting points.

Link Here

I hate to see the that the local News outlets will surely be throwing out there today. If anything else maybe Ana will stay small and be a good warm-up and drill for those not prepared to get prepared. That is if the storm even effects land.

Best case turn and just send swell to the east coast beaches


mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:16 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Quote:

NRL has taken down 90L. So I looked around and they just designated 03L. We now have TD 3 in the very least.





DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
15/1145 UTC 11.4N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 90L
15/1145 UTC 14.3N 47.2W T2.0/2.5 ANA
15/0615 UTC 12.0N 32.0W T2.0/2.0 90L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:17 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Quote:

NRL has taken down 90L. So I looked around and they just designated 03L. We now have TD 3 in the very least.




Or not? They now have 90L and 03L.

NRL 03L


mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:22 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

T2.5 Isnt that a tropical storm???? Look at the ssd page,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Ana has lost some convection.Also notice all the dry air in front of her.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html


weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:37 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Yeah Bob....I agree with Ana's overall appearance. Water Vapor loop really continues to show Ana right up against some very dry air. As a smaller system, Ana is perhaps a good deal more fragile. Though certainely more structurally developed than before and with a small CDO, I have to say was surprised that NHC pulled the trigger as quick as they did with Ana. Would have thought the marginal conditions might have had them hold off and continue to monitor, given 12 more hours of visable satellite.

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:43 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Quote:

Yeah Bob....I agree with Ana's overall appearance. Water Vapor loop really continues to show Ana right up against some very dry air. As a smaller system, Ana is perhaps a good deal more fragile. Though certainely more structurally developed than before and with a small CDO, I have to say was surprised that NHC pulled the trigger as quick as they did with Ana. Would have thought the marginal conditions might have had them hold off and continue to monitor, given 12 more hours of visable satellite.




I think that they did classify Ana in order to allow the islands to begin preparations. The NHC certainly has done this in the past, especially if the evidence supported classification.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:27 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Considering that lots of people on the blogs and here thought they were going to pull the trigger at 11pm last night, I think it's curious that now some are saying they did it prematurely.

Ana does appear to be undergoing some pretty significant shearing, but it's holding its own, and it definately looks like a tropical storm on the satellite loop, to me at least. A very tiny tropical storm, but a tropical storm nonetheless.

ETA...
I think I've seen this picture before, and it wasn't pretty the first time.
11am Forecast is out. 8am Thursday position is very near the extreme southern tip of the peninsula as a 60kt strong tropical storm.

5-Day forecast for Three is for a Cat 2 pretty much following in Ana's footsteps, maybe slightly north of Ana's track.


mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:36 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

NHC just put up depression 3

Thats awesome NHC put up the right way to pronounce ANA
Who would of known is was different than ANA with A sound, LOL


weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:50 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Just saw the post here about T.D.#3 Well, despite latest visible satellite showing convection decreasing, I will be very surprised if T.D.3 is not "Bill" by tomm. a.m. latest. Meanwhile, I have to stick to my guns on Ana. Also still going through fluctuating bursting trends, yet given over all conditions around it, and its very small structural size, I still do not think it quite should have been upgraded to T.S. status ( politics aside ). In fact, not only do I think that it is borderline at best, but until I start seeing more classical banding features, than believe that it may not make the 5 day journey. Furthermore, given the rising mid level heights, I do not see as much reason for the northward component to its forecasted motion, and potentially seeing whatever threat, to be focused farther south. I believe its forecast track will be adjusted farther south and west as the day/evening goes on.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:53 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Great explanation of the model track forecast for ANA and TD 3. Excerpt from the San Juan NWS morning AFD. The Ridge is the key to the tracks... as it usually is.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
911 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009/

IMPORTANT CHANGES HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
THE LAST 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM ANA...THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF
THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON IS BORN. AT 5:00 AM AST THIS
MORNING...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST NHC OFFICIAL TRACK...PASS ANA
BETWEEN 35-50 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ANA...WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM MOVING ON A
WESTWARD TRACK AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATER...SOME
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A
LITTLE...PRODUCING A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE STORM. IF
THIS NOT HAPPEN...THEN...THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH...AND THE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA MORE STRONGER.
IN ANY WAYS...ANA IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FROM OUR
FORECAST AREA...TO PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.

BEHIND TROPICAL STORM ANA...ANOTHER SYSTEM...A VERY STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE...HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...MAINLY WHEN THE
SYSTEM REACH 50 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...PASSING THE CENTER NEAR 150 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWER...AND ALSO WILL BE LESS
STRONGER...THAN PREVIOUS COMPUTER MODEL RUNS. A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE...IF FORECAST BY MOST OF THE COMPUTER MODELS IN THE
LONG RANGE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. IF THE SYSTEM MOVE
SLOWER...IT WILL REACH THE WEAKNESS BY THAT TIME...AND WILL TEND
TO MOVE MORE ON A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM
MOVE FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS...THE RIDGE WILL BE
INTACT AND MORE STRONGER WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA.

Full AFD here:
http://flhurricane.com/text/AFDSJU.txt


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 12:24 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

G-IV and NOAA P3 are expected to depart Bridgetown for Ana around 20Z today. So hopefully that gives us some more reliable model data

Recon plan for tomorrow: AF fixes on Ana, 16/17-00Z and 17/05-12Z, continue 6-hr fixes beyond. G-IV msn planned for 17/1730Z and 18/0530Z.


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 12:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Judging by appearance alone I would say we already have Bill.
The colder tops seem to be starting to fill in the NE Quadrant that has been sheared. Shear drops off alot once the system clears 40W.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...zoom=&time=

Navy site has intensity at 90 knots gusting to 115 just north of the leewards on the 20th. Keeping in mind intensification is the most difficult to forecast.


weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 01:32 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Of far lesser importance, we are getting some nice squalls here, coming into S. Florida. Northern axis of this tropical wave is really starting to look a little more interesting to me. Key West radar appears to indicate a week mid to low level circulation. Given light upper air and continued bursting, I think some in the N. Gulf coast might be surprised to see NHC discuss this feature with little more interest later today/evening. Assuming persistance ( and climotology ), it would not seem out of the question for a depression to spin up in the E. Central Gulf. It certainly could be transient and all just go away, especially given how small this feature is. Would be much more susceptible to light shear ( ala T.S. Ana ). Only difference here perhaps, is that the gulf may have less shear than what Ana is dealing with, and given this wave's small signiture, it certainly wouldn't take as long to spin up, as its "Eastern Atlantic cousin".

Not to suggest anything dramatic here, given proximity to land, but could get people's attention.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 01:36 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

TD#3 is really starting to spin. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
I think we have Bill.


OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 15 2009 01:38 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

TD#3 is very impressive looking. Are we expecting a major Hurricane out of "Bill"?

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 15 2009 01:55 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS AREA...
AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 15 2009 01:59 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

2:00 EDT NHC comments regarding GOM wave

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. THE 15/1200 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATES WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE...WITH E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND E WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITHIN 120 W
OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 19N. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N84W AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THIS UPPER LOW TO 11N82W.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 15 2009 02:06 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

The structure of Ana is questionable now. The LLC has been exposed on the west of the convection for about 4 hours. Shear is from the wsw ahead of it, and that is usually more difficult for a system than shear from the east or south east. Lets see what the planes tell us.

mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 15 2009 02:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

Quote:

The structure of Ana is questionable now. The LLC has been exposed on the west of the convection for about 4 hours. Shear is from the wsw ahead of it, and that is usually more difficult for a system than shear from the east or south east. Lets see what the planes tell us.





Is it just me or does Ana seem to be moving a little north, OR is TD3 moving a little south, check this visible loop,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

Look at a close up of TD3 COC
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...00908130845.GIF


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 02:23 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

very interested in the Key West wave.. watchin pressures in the SE GOM... if it can get away from the ULL to its SSW.. and i see the 2pm TWO has mention of turning.. we may get a quick spinn up on this tropical wave.. what i don't like... the direction its going, the water is warmer... nothern GOM is in the upper 80's... up here near the phndl of Florida. Fuel for fire! Ana... got a lot to overcome... that shear is taking its toll. TD3 is growing and getting better organized. we got time to watch them

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 02:28 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

The Convection in Ana has never been nearly as impressive as the overall circulation of the system. Looks to me like some dry air ahead of it and TD3 siphoning moisture off the back end. I just can't see how this thing is going to turn into anything major (although I am NOT making predictions...). I am wondering if it might go back and forth from TS to TD as it progresses in this environment? It is probably amazing that it had enough to regenerate to where it is now.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 15 2009 02:53 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ana, and More

I updated the main page article, in short I think Ana will take the southern trek, as long as it remains relatively weak. I don't have the best confidence in that, however. The shear has exposed Ana's center again too.

The wave near the Keys is worth watching when it gets into the Gulf, and TD#3's forecast track looks good to me.

Also there are going to be some research flights out into Ana, so we'll have some better than usual data for it for tomorrow.



typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 15 2009 03:00 PM
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown

I would be surprised if a 00z CMC/ECMWF blend were to succeed.

Evaluating the sigma levels I do not see where these models are deriving their impetus in causing that much beta motion between 72 and 120 hours, particularly when the steering field remains so longitudinal in orientation. Beginning at this latitude and having virtually no weakness in the ridge modeled out through 144 or so hours, I don't see where that much polar-ward motion is actually going to come from.

I'm considering these models the less likely outliers until I find a reason that fits.

That said, the 12z CMC did come a tad further west of the 00z fixes.

I believe everyone from the northern Gulf Coast to Maine needs to be paying attention to the tropics/outlooks over the course of the next week to 10 days.

Ana is tough one to call. I am wondering if her small size has the models only vaguely aware of the system's presence. The U/A wind shows a relaxed shear, yet convection struggles at the current hour. WV imagery suggest pretty strongly that the culprit is a few gulps of dry air. This may continue (...and continue to baffle the models) until she grows (if and when) in size and contains her own environment at the core. She's just not big enough to produce that inward environment just yet.

I believe the difference in the track guidance in why Ana winds up in the Gulf and "Bill" ends up along the East Coast or headed for England is because of scale of development - the weaker systems are reliant on lower level steering.


native
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 15 2009 03:25 PM
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown

I shouldn't say that I'm surprised..but..I am a wee bit baffled (well not really)

Ana - She's got so much going against her (sheer to her west and dry air entrainment and TD#3 "stealing" what little moisture she's got available to her) that it's a wonder how she continues to just (barely) hang in there. I am not surprised though that NHC is hedging on the side of prudence and caution with her...keeps those in the nearest "line of fire" on their toes...what with TD#3 hot on her heels. Folks need to keep their guard up and not let it down until the possible threat passes.

As for the wave located near the Keys...that one (IMHO) should be getting some attention (at the very least) from the local mets anywhere along the Northen GOM for several reasons. (1) Most "everyday" folks are watching Ana & TD#3 and not even aware of the potential threat this other wave could pose. (2) The GOM's SSTs are almost unbelievable...a giant pool of rocket fuel, if you will. While I realize the closer that wave "hugs" land along with a whole other myriad of factors, the more inhibitated it is for formation but...the closer in, the shallower waters are that much warmer. I only hope that folks in and around the Northern GOM area are aware and educated enough not to just blow it off...be prepared..better safe than sorry right?

Speaking of better safe than sorry...I'll add this here (although may not be the right forum, MODS feel free to move) I did note early this year here on the "blog" of the start of the season a "list" of supplies etc..I noted that something I always have on hand that was not on that "list". It is a First Aid Kit.

5pm update(s)/discussion(s) should prove to be interesting. Should answer a few speculative questions as to NHC's thinking on Ana at the very least.


weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 03:55 PM
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown

Here in N. Miami Dade & Broward County, we are getting some training effect and some fairly intense squalls with very heavy rain. To me, radar is starting to look as if multiple rain bands are forming, though I see no obvious evidence of any center of circulation. Meanwhile, latest vis. satellite does seem to clearly show a center point of turning off of the lower Keys. Whole center point of this top axis of wave seems to be very slowly moving NW

craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 15 2009 04:21 PM
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown

TD3 - I'll preface this post that way to avoid confusion- a lot going on
Following up on an earlier post I made TD3 needs to fight off dry air in its northern half which it seems to be doing. Once this moisture wraps all the way around the heat transferring mechanics should really kick in. I'd give it another 24hours then we should see CDO developing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html


WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 15 2009 04:38 PM
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown

NHC is now named TD3 Bill...as if there was any doubt

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 15 2009 04:38 PM
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown

We now have "Bill" officially from the NHC - "DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS."


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 15 2009 04:38 PM
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown

NHC has Bill at the 5:00.

Haven't seen any speculation on what impact Ana might have on lowering SSTs for Bill...they are on fairly similar paths??


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 04:56 PM
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown

Quote:

NHC has Bill at the 5:00.

Haven't seen any speculation on what impact Ana might have on lowering SSTs for Bill...they are on fairly similar paths??





I don't think Ana will be strong enough to have any affect on the SST's.That takes a fairly strong cane to really affect the SST's.

Most models build Bill to a major cane down the road,need to keep a close eye on this one in the coming week.


JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 15 2009 05:03 PM
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown

I'm not too worried about Ana, at least for the short term. It's still struggling to survive, and will be for awhile I think. Bill is more worriesome, but that's still a ways off. Closer to home, that Tropical Wave near the Keys appears to have a well defined low level circulation, according to the latest visible satellite images. I think we could have a system trying hard to spin up in a hurry here, say reminiscent of Humberto the other year. Finally, big tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa with a lot of convection firing up around it. Will have to see how everything goes, but I think the potential is there to go from nothing to four tropical cyclones within one week.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 15 2009 05:41 PM
Re: Ana, TD#3, the RunDown

History has Bill swimming with the fishes, as there are only 4 similarly located August TSs that made landfall in the U.S. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200903_climo.html#a_topad

However, the 1893 one is only one of two canes ever to hit NYC directly http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/people/columns/intelligencer/12908/


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 15 2009 06:20 PM
GOM System

Call it a system for lack of a better term. Actually it's a Tropical Wave. But I'm seeing a defined center of circulation about 60nm NNW of the Key West Radar site. Using the 248nm radar and 2 hour loop.

It appears that most of the heaviest rainfall is to the SW of Key West. Beyond 80nm.

COC appears to be moving WNW or NW away from the Lower Penisula and the Florida Straits


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 15 2009 06:56 PM
Re: GOM System

I am seeing that "turning" also in the vis loop and Key West radar. If it persists, I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD or TS form up soon just off the west coast of FL. Gulf water temps are high, so there is a lot of heat potential to work with. I'll probably stock up on propane for the grill on Monday depending on the prognosis on Ana by then.

kpt
(Registered User)
Sat Aug 15 2009 07:23 PM
Re: GOM System

why does NHC not show this for likely development?

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 07:36 PM
Re: GOM System

Quote:

why does NHC not show this for likely development?




Because it's not likely to develop. At least, not > 50%. I'd give it 15-25% myself, so I'd put it at the upper end of code yellow, or maybe even code orange (30%). To me it just looks very disorganized.


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 15 2009 07:37 PM
Re: GOM System

Actually - NHC does show it as a chance to develop - but is marked as Low / <30% chance.

For reference, this is the location they are talking about:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 07:39 PM
Re: GOM System

Quote:

Actually - NHC does show it as a chance to develop - but is marked as Low / <30% chance.




That's why I called it upper yellow

Looking at the long-range Tampa radar, I may have to revise my opinion, though. It might be 50/50.

ETA: 8pm TWO still has it Code Yellow, although they acknowledge that pressures are beginning to fall and that the area is getting better organized. Stranger things HAVE happened in August.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 15 2009 08:02 PM
Re: GOM System

I've looked at both the Tampa and Key West 248nm loops and they both seem to indicate a spin of some type at some level. Latest check of the warnings in the FL Peninsula and the Keys would back that up. Gusts in thunderstorms to near Tropical Storm force, although that happens everyday, nearly every Thunderstorm.

Small craft advisory to go up later tonight.

Greatest 3 hour pressure drop I saw earlier was at the mid GOM bouy 42001. However the warmest water at that time was near the East GOM bouy 42003 or just north of where we are seeing the circulation.

Increasing spiral banding is also concerning me. Although the Storm Prediction Center has not issued any Watches or Mesoscale Discussions for Florida I'm still concerned that the spin could generate a short lived tornado or two. Most of the Peninsula is currently in the right quadrant of the circulation and that's usually the danger zone for tornadoes.
However the system does appear to be moving NW at a decent speed so the threat shouldn't linger long. Especially with nightfall coming. Any tornadoes generated by this system will likely move from SE to the NW or from South to North depending on the oreintation of the rain band.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 15 2009 08:21 PM
Ana and Storm Preps

Based on the latest Advisory. It is entirely possible if not probable that a Watch of some type will be issued for Florida EARLY WEDNESDAY morning.
Based on the NHC criteria of 36hours before conditions arrive.
Warning criteria is 24 hours. At the current forecast speed Warning could be issued for parts of Florida as early as Noon on Wednesday.

Please begin your Storm Preps. Even if it just means getting a to do list together.

Ana is currently forecast to be near 70 mph sustained wind speed at the 5 day/ 120hour position near the Florida Peninsula or Florida Straits.

If the ridge holds and TS Bill follows TS Ana there will be a 72 hour interval at current forecast speeds. You may need a 5 day supply of water and other items.
TS Bill is currently forecast to become a Category 2 Hurricane. Prepare for a Category 3 and that should give you some margin.

This is basically a worst case scenario, and we hope that it doesn't occur. But You can always drink water and eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches.

San Juan NWS has just updated their Hurricane Local Statement and it has some great ideas in it.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HLSSJU&max=61
This link will refresh with the latest HLS from San Juan NWS


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 15 2009 08:26 PM
Re: GOM System

The wave in the eastern Gulf of Mexico does now have an Invest floater over it - and no doubt has been getting better organized throughout the day. The banding is not particularly healthy, as a lot of the 'banding' is merely outflow boundaries arcing as they bow out, while, yes, exhibiting some cyclonic motion in the aggregate as they rotate a bit within the broad area of low pressure of the wave.

All in all, shear over this region is not hostile.. and while unfavorable to its west, the general region of more favorable upper level winds should be traveling along with the wave as it heads towards central Louisiana over the next 48 hours. From there, if the bulk of it is not yet inland in one form or another, locations from Lake Charles to Houston could be watching more closely.

This is a broad area of low pressure, and unless and until it consolidates, heavy, squally showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect a wide area over both water and land. However, I agree that it is very possible that a center of circulation is already taking hold, and that we are seeing the tentative makings of another tropical cyclone on the way.


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 15 2009 08:45 PM
Re: GOM System

Looking at the Tampa Bay long range radar loop and the IR (un-enhanced) Sat loop, it appears that the convection is starting to wrap around a center just west of Naples. Something is up right in FL's back yard tonight. Interests in the FL panhandle should be watching this closely tonight and tomorrow.

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 15 2009 08:51 PM
Re: GOM System

I am definitely seeing turning on Key West radar and the IR loop is showing what appears to be early signs of banding just off Florida's east coast. I don't want to be alarmist, but it definitely is showing early signs of developing into something.

SSTs are on the warm side this year:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sst2.watl.20090815.gif

Compare to the same day last year:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sst2.watl.20080815.gif


AdvAutoBob
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:07 PM
Re: GOM System

Last couple of hours, I've watched showers looking suspiciously like rain bands, winds up around 15-20 in gusts here in N Ft Myers... this, coupled with Ana and Bill out there is making me review preps first thing in the morning (should have done it already, but with the late start this season... no excuse, but...)

And lest I forget.. a warm welcome back to my fellow CFHC'ers.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:12 PM
Re: GOM System Now 91L

GOM Area of Interest is now Invest 91L, and it is looking healthier by the hour this evening. The big question now is: What does it do overnight: Continue to improve, Steady-state, or Dissolve.

.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:27 PM
Re: GOM System Now 91L

Quote:

GOM Area of Interest is now Invest 91L, and it is looking healthier by the hour this evening. The big question now is: What does it do overnight: Continue to improve, Steady-state, or Dissolve.





The bigger question is.... where is it headed, and will the NHC have sufficient time to put up tropical storm warnings?
The water is a big problem (it's hot!), and conditions, from what I can tell, are conducive to rapid intensification. I'm basing that solely on the fact that 12 hours ago, this was nothing, and now it's organizing rapidly.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:32 PM
Re: GOM System Now 91L

Only problem invest 91 has is time! The movement should bring this onshore Sunday evening near the FL Panhandle....could be a weak TS or nothing more than a low-midlevel sharp wave trough. Still numerous T-Storms could spawn a few Tornados in N Fla and the Panhandle area on Sunday.

mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:36 PM
Re: GOM System Now 91L

We are getting wild drenching rain and wind here, some of the rain band going through space coast

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:37 PM
Re: GOM System Now 91L

Quote:

Only problem invest 91 has is time! The movement should bring this onshore Sunday evening near the FL Panhandle....could be a weak TS or nothing more than a low-midlevel sharp wave trough. Still numerous T-Storms could spawn a few Tornados in N Fla and the Panhandle area on Sunday.




You've got a point. However, storms have been known to rapidly intensify in this area this time of year in the past (Katrina comes to mind). Given the forward motion, I would expect no more than a mid-range tropical storm. The problem with that is, NO ONE other than the people here and on WU and Weather Channel zombies, will see it coming. It's one thing for a weak tropical storm to hit you. It's another to wake up to it without expecting anything.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:38 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

My only problem with the forecast for 120 Ana is that if she stays off the coasts of the islands and follows the north part of the cone she could be much stronger and come in higher... and i would think a stronger Ana could affect the track of Bill ...

If Ana says weak... they are intricately linked is my point...

And, wherever the system in the gulf goes..would ..could be in indication of Ana's future track... depending on depth of frontal boundaries and timing..

Green dot on funktop on Bill

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ft-l.jpg

nice centered green dot..


mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:41 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Look west of fort myers in GOM, Im seeing a fairly well defined center of circulation. Any thoughts.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


This is wild how long did it take? matter of hrs?


Beach
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:42 PM
Re: GOM System Now 91L

I agree, the gulf is 83+ degrees.

Radar shows the center getting organized:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:46 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Quote:

Look west of fort myers in GOM, Im seeing a fairly well defined center of circulation. Any thoughts.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes




I'm looking at a zoom-in of the Tampa radar, at the apparent LLC forming.
I can't write my "thoughts", but I'll give you the family-friendly version: ut-oh!
I don't believe I've ever seen anything ramp up quite this fast.


mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:47 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Quote:

Quote:

Look west of fort myers in GOM, Im seeing a fairly well defined center of circulation. Any thoughts.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes




I'm looking at a zoom-in of the Tampa radar, at the apparent LLC forming.
I can't write my "thoughts", but I'll give you the family-friendly version: ut-oh!
I don't believe I've ever seen anything ramp up quite this fast.




Wonder how long it will take NHC to notice it

Looks like COC is moving NW


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:51 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

very amazing to watch... wish i had two computers ... definitely some center but not sure on where and if it's mid level or what, would like more info

as for bill.. he is finally crankin


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:52 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Quote:

Quote:


I'm looking at a zoom-in of the Tampa radar, at the apparent LLC forming.
I can't write my "thoughts", but I'll give you the family-friendly version: ut-oh!
I don't believe I've ever seen anything ramp up quite this fast.




Wonder how long it will take NHC to notice it
Looks like COC is moving NW




You read my mind

Seriously, if the current trend continues I would not be surprised if they pulled the trigger within the hour. If not then, at 2am or 5am IF the current trend continues. It could fall apart overnight. The thought of waking up to a tropical storm warning is not exactly comforting.


mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 15 2009 09:52 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Quote:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

very amazing to watch... wish i had two computers ... definitely some center but not sure on where and if it's mid level or what, would like more info

as for bill.. he is finally crankin




The COC is really getting organized by the minute, its stunning how fast this thing is coming together, whatever it is

I hope it does fall apart, giving the high SST's I doubt it

Starting to see the southern quadrant of the COC start to band:(
\Any thoughts?

Local office severe thunderstorm warning for brevard county
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.


Hurikid
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:05 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Bill on the other hand is thriving. Strong tropical storm IMO by tomorrow if this continues.

Wonder if I should continue monitoring this, I'm from Barbados after all and I don't think we're out of the woods yet


mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:07 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Quote:

Bill on the other hand is thriving. Strong tropical storm IMO by tomorrow if this continues.

Wonder if I should continue monitoring this, I'm from Barbados after all and I don't think we're out of the woods yet




Im more worried about this circulation off Ft Myers rapidly getting better organized

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=tbw&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no


gordonfink
(Registered User)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:15 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

A few years back, Charley rapidly intensified, and scared the poop out of us west coasters.

With that said, are you folks really afraid of a tropical storm? I you folks will probably flame away, but TS's move through all the time. A day of rain, some wind, usually both of which come through in bands, with sunshine in between.

It's fun to watch, maybe, but I can't imagine a TS has everyone all wound up.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:17 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Quote:

It's fun to watch, maybe, but I can't imagine a TS has everyone all wound up.




It's the lack of notice that has everyone wound up... the rapid.... very rapid... intensification.
If it went from nothing to this this quickly, what could happen next?


gordonfink
(Registered User)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:21 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

if it winds up like Charley did, then yeah, it's real scary. I don't take chances with my family after that experience. We went form thinking a CAT 1 would hit us, to living with a 3/4. No fun.

However, tropical storms are not that big of a deal to live through.

As for warning - the news media lives for this stuff. There is plenty of warning. Here in the Tampa Bay area, the local mets were saying yesterday that their models expected for this to be a TS in the panhandle by weekend's end.

I will say this, though. We have lots of dead growth on trees and such around the Tampa Bay area, that has accumulated over the past five years or so. A strong tropical storm will no doubt cause some damage around here from that.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:22 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

I think it would be a mistake if the NHC didn't try to spread the word about this storm. This has the potential to strengthen like Charley (not intensity, rather the speed that it intensifies). Buoy 42003 is reporting a water temp of 87, and buoy 42013 is showing 86 degrees. Here, our water temp is 88. I am definitely not trying to be an alarmist, but I do think it would be prudent for the NHC to put a T.S watch up for the West coast and panhandle of FL.

Also, with all due respect Gordonfink, I don't think it's fair to call us flamers. In fact, if you visit any other weather hobbyist sites I'm sure that you will agree that this site is one of the very few that keep the flaming to a minimum


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:23 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Model wise, 91L is only going to be over water for around 18 hours, max according to GFS and some other models. This means it may get a shot to become a Tropical Depression, but it just means some rain. If it had two days it could get some strength, but it's moving too fast.

At this point, most you are going to get is some rain and a little bit of wind, but not too bad. Not enough time otherwise.
Landfall Where at? Around Al/FL most likely.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:27 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Quote:

Model wise, 91L is only going to be over water for around 18 hours, max according to GFS and some other models. This means it may get a shot to become a Tropical Depression, but it just means some rain. If it had two days it could get some strength, but it's moving too fast.
At this point, most you are going to get is some rain and a little bit of wind, but not too bad. Not enough time otherwise.
Landfall Where at? Around Al/FL most likely.




There are numerous of examples of storms that have strengthened rapidly in this area, Mike.
Not saying this won't be more than a depression or a minimal storm, but to write it off as nothing more than maybe a depression is premature.


gordonfink
(Registered User)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:30 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

I agree with you - This is a great site, and is extremely useful. I just figured I'd get roasted for saying TS's aren't too scary.

Anything more than that, and you have to be on your toes (unless you live in a mobile home).


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:31 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Quote:


There are numerous of examples of storms that have strengthened rapidly in this area, Mike.
Not saying this won't be more than a depression or a minimal storm, but to write it off as nothing more than maybe a depression is premature.




It should be watched closely, and it has the fuel there, I remember Humberto in 2007, so it can happen, but it really doesn't have the time. Although a strengthening system can be a worry even when it's minimal. Systems like this can develop rapidly over this hot of water, that is important, but overreacting can be worse.

That said. Watch this for the unexpected.

Here are Radar Links in the Area

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Melbourne FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|tlh|Tallahassee FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|evx|Northwest Florida Radar}}


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:34 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Quote:


It should be watched closely, and it has the fuel there, I remember Humberto in 2007, so it can happen, but it really doesn't have the time. Although a strengthening system can be a worry even when it's minimal. Systems like this can develop rapidly over this hot of water, that is important, but overreacting can be worse.




You do have a point there. It looks to me as if it could already be a depression, though. I have not seen bouy information so I don't know what the winds are. Rapidly moving systems are bad too because they add the forward motion to the relative wind speed. It's going to be more than just your average Sunday afternoon thunderboomer, I think, but hopefully not MUCH more.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:35 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Invest 91L right now is all bark and no bite.

These kinds of disturbances are really easy to get worked up about, because they look so impressive on satellite and/or radar, but where it counts, they lack substance. At present, there is no sign of an improving/consolidating/tightening surface circulation (not even sure if one still exists - there is no clear evidence of a closed surface circulation tonight, as there had been earlier in the day), and pressures are actually rising.

Given the environment, 91L may very well become a numbered cyclone before shoving into land, but as already mentioned, time is probably its worst enemy, and the conditions for further development are not even close to Charley-like.


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:39 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

You have not seen buoy information because there are no buoys near the COC. The nearest one is up near Sarasota. I checked ship data, none to be found near there.

gordonfink
(Registered User)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:39 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Hugh - since you are up that way, I hope it is nothing. I worry about Ana missing land, and landing in the Gulf. That could crank up once it gets there, and head your way, if it makes it that long.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:41 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Quote:

Hugh - since you are up that way, I hope it is nothing. I worry about Ana missing land, and landing in the Gulf. That could crank up once it gets there, and head your way, if it makes it that long.




Yep, and Bill could follow behind Ana. Or, none of them could hit here. Just too early to tell.

But, the forecast is not comforting right now.

Random Chaos: Ah... well, I meant I hadn't looked for buoy information.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Aug 15 2009 10:59 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Here is a copy of part of my post in the Forecast Lounge:

"It is worth noting that the initial tropical model suite from NHC places the storm inland in the Louisiana/Mississippi area in 48 hours and the SHIPS model suggests a maximum wind speed of 40 knots at landfall - but only if it organizes better than it currently is."

Cheers,
ED


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Aug 15 2009 11:06 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

There's mostly good news at 11, I updated the front page article. Ana may weaken more, Bill has a slightly better chance to recurve and may miss the Leeward Islands if those trends continue. The wave in the Gulf is missing key ingredients at the low level, but it could change tomorrow.

I hope tomorrow continues the current trends, but with this much in the mix, it's important to watch everything closely. And with Bill you can't be sure until it gains latitude, if something keeps Bill weak (like happened with Ana), then further west is more likely. One interesting note, It looks like Bill may move through the Hebert Box.



gordonfink
(Registered User)
Sat Aug 15 2009 11:09 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

good news so far. thanks for all the good work all of you folks do here.

DestinFisherman
(Registered User)
Sat Aug 15 2009 11:35 PM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

I was reading on wikipedia, Humberto was upgraded to a hurricane when it was located just 15 miles off the coast of texas and still made landfall as a 90 mph hurricane. rapid intesification has happened before and will happen again. this one might just have a few tricks up its sleeves. . . .

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Aug 16 2009 12:04 AM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Right now 91L is very disorganized. Earlier a strong rain band was visible on radar from Tampa encircling the COC, but it has since disappeared. What we have is a broad low pressure area with a cyclonic turning in the center - classical Tropical Depression at strongest, and not yet declared by NHC. The central rain band earlier was I think mostly designed to trick us into thinking that 91L is stronger than it was. Radar shows some decent formation at the core, but IR still shows great disorganization over the region. Before anything major happens, it has to shed off all the outer convection regions - something that it really hasn't begun to do yet.

It is intensifying, and right now undergoing what look to be some structural changes, but it is not going to explode in size tonight - at least not until the outer convection is shed.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 16 2009 12:11 AM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

The high to the north is the key to both storms.We will have a very interesting week ahead.Don't be surprised if the tracks change,maybe 4-7 times for Ana and 10-15 times for Bill.They both are still far away,things will change back and forth many times before any possible landfall.

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 16 2009 12:18 AM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

Good thought Bob. Truth is IF Ana were to stay weak and keep going west she could come in south of the islands...which I believe is within her cone... I am writing a post for my blog and lost on wikipedia like many here it seems tonight while bouncing back and forth... the high is the key but... her strength also is a big factor. They adjusted the track to the south.

A much forgotten storm: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Dorothy_(1970)

Just mentioning is to show the many possibilities including storms we forget.

Bill is big... grabs your eyes but the bigger they come the harder they fall? Has to pull himself together and don't think he has but it is compelling to think on the possibilities with such a storm if he does get it together, really.

Gulf...what did John Hope always say about maintaining consistent convection and waiting to see if a center takes over ...


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 16 2009 12:23 AM
91L

Current Tampa radar wind profile is showing:
30kts at 3000 feet from the South
20kts at 2000 feet from the SE
15kts at 1000 feet from the ESE

The 30kts has been consistant for the last hour.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 16 2009 12:32 AM
Re: Ana and Storm Preps

It is very important to note that what is good news for your area now may change,so if you are in the cone you need to pay close attention.I can almost bet the farm that the track you see now will not be exactly where the storms will end up.

mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Aug 16 2009 12:47 AM
Re: 91L

Quote:

Current Tampa radar wind profile is showing:
30kts at 3000 feet from the South
20kts at 2000 feet from the SE
15kts at 1000 feet from the ESE

The 30kts has been consistant for the last hour.




Which means what? Im not sure, LOL


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 16 2009 01:01 AM
Re: 91L

The 30kts at 3000 feet isn't really indicative of much. Just that the winds in the lower atmosphere are starting to pick up a little speed.
If a spin is present in the middle levels it can and often does spin-down to the surface. Much like a tornado does, just in a much larger fashion.

The buoys don't update the wind speeds as often as radar does. Buoys update once an hour and radar updates every 4-6 minutes on the winds aloft.

Appears to be a vortex forming under the COC. I'm waiting on a new radar scan but the classic doppler inbound and outbound signature is there.


mwillis
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Aug 16 2009 01:47 AM
Re: 91L 2AM

200 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANA...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 905 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TAMPA...IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
SOMETIME TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TODAY. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/160542.shtml


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 16 2009 01:55 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Bill Forms from TD#3, 91L in Gulf

91L is at code Red, it may form into a TD or Tropical Storm in the morning, it's basically a race against time, it's heading about 15MPH Generally northward. A strengthening system is not a good thing to have in the Gulf, even if it is not a hurricane. Systems such as these can cause some surge in the Gulf.

If it slows forward motion then it could form into something more. Many in the Panhandle/Northern Gulf may be surprised to find this when they wake up tomorrow.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 16 2009 01:59 AM
Re: 91L

I am not a MET and I'm not really good at Tropical Radar interpretation but the Tampa Bay NWS Radar is consistantly indicating a vortice/ rotation/ circulation at or near 26.96N/ 83.31W or about 76nm SW of Tampa.
Edit: At 76nm from Tampa Radar, the circulation would be a few thousand feet above the surface~danielw
This is best seen on the Storm Relative Velocity.
The One Hour rainfall total and Composite Reflectivity back up the location.

First image is the Composite Reflectivity. Courtesy NWS



Rotation is seen in the area where green and red meet. The red squares on the gold next to the light blue and darker green.

Image Courtesy of Plymouth State


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Sun Aug 16 2009 02:17 AM
Re: 91L

91L continues to impress on radar and satellite presentations this morning, and it is likely to be upgraded to TD4 at 5am (4am CDT). The HWRF and GFDL models from 00z this evening show strengthening until landfall in the Panama City area tonight. The GFDL brings it to 50kts, the HWRF to 55 kts.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 16 2009 02:28 AM
Re: 91L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
215 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BRUSHING COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF CLEARWATER.
AREA OF SHOWERS PRODUCING 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY. A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CLEARWATER BEACH AND WAS LIFTING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH
PARALLELING THE COAST SO THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. MAX TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
edited~danielw
http://flhurricane.com/text/AFDTBW.txt


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 16 2009 02:43 AM
Re: 91L

Welcome back Jason, not something you like to see happen overnight when most people probably weren't even aware of Bill & Ana, much less this.

Surprise storms, even if they aren't hurricanes, are somewhat frightening because of the general lack of knowledge. 91L may become a TD or TS at 5AM this morning. IT won't have a lot of time over water, but it will be in strengthening mode the whole time until it landfalls.


weatherguy08
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Aug 16 2009 02:45 AM
Re: 91L

Checking out the system in the GoM and have to say, it looks more impressive than Tropical Storm Ana does! This thing is probably already a Tropical Depression and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the NHC classified it at or by 4:00 am CDT. In fact, a ship report from the National Data Buoy Center shows 40-knot winds in the northeastern quadrant! Not sure on how the NHC treats these ship reports, but that would certainly indicate that we have Tropical Storm Claudette.

Link to ship report: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.p...ot=A&time=1


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 16 2009 02:54 AM
Re: 91L

Certainly looks like 91L went with Door #1 (Continue to organize overnight).

I am also inclined to go with Claudette by 5AM, and do believe that it is likely the circulation has now closed back off at the surface, and is in the process of tightening. A bit of the wind enhancement is no doubt a result of the pressure gradient, but overall it looks like 91L is already producing an increasingly substantial radii of 25-30 knot sustained winds.

As for its future: A Humberto-like ramp-up from tonight on would not surprise me. A Charley-like race to the finish line would. However, this is not to say that such a photo finish is impossible, and if I were in Vegas, I would definitely want to hedge my bets at this point.

If verified, it would appear that we may have just gone from 0 to 3 names in the space of about 24 hours.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 16 2009 03:50 AM
Re: 91L

ACFW Best track and the Navy Site has 91L as TD#4 already.

It is very difficult to find a low level circulation, however.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Aug 16 2009 04:28 AM
Re: 91L

Ana's circulation has raced west of the convection, it's looking horrible this morning, may be downgraded... again.

shewtinstars
(Registered User)
Sun Aug 16 2009 01:06 PM
Re: 91L

Here's something to ponder. Let's say, hypothetically, that Anna makes it to GOM and is able to intensify to hurricane status. Maybe even curve off to the East/NE while in the GOM. Then Bill comes along and heads for the east coast. Florida, Gerogia, SC gets hit with two hurricanes at or about the same time, one from the west and one from the east. What a nightmare!

Lamar-Plant City
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 16 2009 02:11 PM
Re: 91L

Quote:

Here's something to ponder. Let's say, hypothetically, that Anna makes it to GOM and is able to intensify to hurricane status. Maybe even curve off to the East/NE while in the GOM. Then Bill comes along and heads for the east coast. Florida, Gerogia, SC gets hit with two hurricanes at or about the same time, one from the west and one from the east. What a nightmare!




I guess it's interesting to think of this type of scenario, but it is VERY unlikely. Storms just don't do well in proximity to other storms. Plus you are postulating some sort of steering current that could steer one to the north east and the other near it to the northwest which also is not very likely. IF Ana gets into the Gulf with Bill following behind, Ana would not be likely to recurve back towards Bill and if it did, one system would destroy or at least severely weaken the other. Any situation that would curve Ana to the east, would also likely curve Bill to the east as well.



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