MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Oct 27 2009 08:53 AM
Monitoring 97L in Southwest Caribbean Sea

3 November 2009 8AM Update
The area in the Central Atlantic is no longer a concern.

This morning the area in the southwestern Caribbean sea has persisted quite well over the last two days and now has a 30-50% chance of developing. It has been designated invest area 97L.

Because of proximity to land it may not develop much. It is likely to remain relatively stationary for the next few days.

The slow motion makes 97L worth watching for changes over the next few days. However, the most likely scenario is that it will be just a rain event for Central America. But there are early model indications that it could stay offshore and potentially strengthen.



Yet another area worth watching is the Bay of Campeche (Southwestern Gulf of Mexico) for changes over the week. The conditions of the atmosphere around it are not conductive for development, however.

2 November 2009 10AM Update
Watching 96L which may become a subtropical system, there is a 30-50% chance it could form within the next 48 hours. No likely threat to land. Conditions are becoming less favorable for development however.

Original Update
2009 continues to be a high shear environment for the Atlantic. We had a few bits of potential activity last week, but nothing strong enough to make it. The Pacific (East and West) has been very active this year, but it isn't this site's focus.

There is still one month of season left, and a small chance that something could occur, but more than likely it won't. 2009 likely (and thankfully) will go down as a very quiet year for the Tropical Atlantic.

{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|97L|97|11|2009|2|97L}}


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Nov 01 2009 01:59 PM
Re: Quiet Again for the Last week of October

Not totally quiet, subtropical winding out in the atlantic, now upped to orange circle and believe they are expecting short term development..

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=wv


vpbob21
(Weather Guru)
Mon Nov 02 2009 05:58 PM
Re: Watching a System in North Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

96L made a good try of it, but just fell a little short. I thought it could have been classified yesterday at either 4:00 or 10:00 PM, but the NHC's decision to wait turned out to be a good one as it ran into a bunch of shear and pretty much fell apart this morning. The LLCC is still spinning along to the north, but it's pretty much toast.

Now we've got a yellow area down in the far SW Caribbean. No invest tag yet, but it looks like there's some kind of circulation around 11/82, almost due east of the Costa Rica / Nicaragua border. It looks like there's some shear down there, and I don't know if it can stay over water long enough to develop into anything, but it is something to keep an eye on. Some models are trying to develop some kind of a system near the Yucatan in a few days, and then drift it up north into the Gulf.


Hawkeyewx
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Nov 03 2009 12:07 PM
Re: Watching a System in North Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

97L appears to have decent potential to develop. The circulation is there and there is some spiral banding, but the convection within the bands is pretty weak. There was a deeper blowup of convection last night so maybe we'll see another tonight. Models like this to develop a bit, but keep it weak. It's at least something interesting to watch in the least interesting hurricane season I can remember.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Nov 03 2009 03:56 PM
Re: Watching a System in North Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

97L has the best chance for developing I've seen in quite a while this year, at least this far west. The conditions around it are good other than the proximity to land. If it stays offshore and meanders around like that it does have the potential to get stronger.

Conditions to the north of it aren't so good right now.

Hopefully by tomorrow we'll know more. There is recon scheduled for tomorrow afternoon.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Nov 03 2009 04:13 PM
Re: Monitoring 97L in Southwest Caribbean Sea

Agree with other comments that 97L has - for this season at least - some of the best potential of any Invests we have seen, particularly for this far west in the basin given all the shear that has typified things over the last few months.

Provided it remains over water, further organization and development into a numbered tropical cyclone within 24 hours looks very possible, if not even likely. Steering currents look to favor sending it into central America to rain out, or possibly cross over into the east Pac, or even BOC... if it doesn't strengthen too much. If 97L was to intensify quite a bit - and it might - rather uncharacteristically given time of year, but not so much considering how its atmospheric environment is surprisingly favorable and SSTs still very supportive down there - it could conceivably be one to watch for the Yucatan to Cuba and perhaps even the south/southeast late in the week ... All conjecture at this point, but again, surprisingly possible.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Nov 03 2009 04:37 PM
Re: Monitoring 97L in Southwest Caribbean Sea

I tropical Cyclone formation alert was issued, which will probably make the system 97L "code red" (50%> chance) at 8PM

CoconutCandy
(User)
Tue Nov 03 2009 05:24 PM
Area of Invest Now On Fast Track ??

Yes, it certainly appears this little invest may be making a bid to become the seasons' last hurrah at producing a significant cyclone. I've had a 'hunch' for many months now that there may be a late-season storm of Western Caribbean origin that we just might yet have to contend with.

The latest animated visible loop shows renewed deep convection in a tight spiral near the center of an increasingly better defined low level circulation, and I suspect a compact, CDO-like feature may be developing there in the coming hours if the deep, bursting convection can be sustained and increased.



This appears quite likely now, considering that the disturbance already possesses a well-defined cyclonic circulation and that the area is now entering it's overnight 'diurnal convective maximum cycle', which tends to support deeper and more intense thunderstorms of a 'bursting' nature, with very cold cloud tops of -80C and colder, which ultimately lower central pressures, further tightening the pressure gradient, thus increasing the winds, as well as the likelihood of tropical cyclogenesis.

These next 12 hours or so could prove to be formative, IMHO, as all indicators appear to be favorable for probable tropical cyclone formation. NHC just upped the 'color of probability' to Orange as well, indicating their similar rational towards an increasing probability of development for this promising looking invest, and their most recent tropical discussion reflects these trends ...

Quote:

... SPECIAL FEATURE ... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N81W ... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 21N81W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER HE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 16N ... WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 16N TO INCLUDE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.





Additionally, for quite some change in the general theme of this whole season thus far, the all-important upper level dynamics are becoming increasingly favorable, with a well-defined upper-level anticyclone taking up position nicely aligned over the developing invest, providing excellent upper outflow in all but perhaps only the southern quadrant, where it appears a bit constricted in animated water vapor imagery. It will certainly be interesting to see what the recon mission reports back tomorrow.

Models thus far indicate considerable spread with regard to forecast track, as others have noted above, and intensity guidance vary considerably as well, with most models taking it just up to or just below tropical storm strength through the 5 day period, while the GFDL forecasts it nearing hurricane intensity in 5 days time.

It'll be interesting to watch it overnight (Hawaii is now 5 hours behind Florida) and see if current convective trends continue and the disturbance organizes further. At this rate, we might well have a numbered, if not a named storm by this time tomorrow.

And now that the TCFA (tropical cyclone formation alert) flag has been just hoisted (since I've been posting), could it be that Invest 97L is now on the fast track for development?



tropicswatch
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Nov 03 2009 06:38 PM
Re: Monitoring 97L in Southwest Caribbean Sea

Hi all,

Panama is starting to get a good soak from this thing here's some home video i ran across on youtube


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AQRSSS1Cx0 Flood in Valle Escondido_Boquete, Panama 11-03-09



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UkF9D0-TUA More Flood Damage in Valle Escondido Boquete, Panama


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Nov 03 2009 08:43 PM
SW Caribbean and BOC

While 97L has most of my attention. The persistant troughiness in the BOC is being watched also. Mainly due to it's proximity to the U.S.
Anything in the BOC this time of year tends to gather more of my attention. Stay tuned...



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