MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 31 2016 02:09 PM
Hermine and Storm Surge

2:00PM EDT Update 3 September 2016

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the
next few hours in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours
from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons
within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life
and property from rising water.

Promptly follow all instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and
Bridgeport, Connecticut.


11:30AM EDT Update 2 September 2016
Hermine is moving rapidly northeast just inside the coast of Georgia, expected to slow down offshore of Carolina and become a hurricane and only go through a partial extratropical transition. It likely will sit offshore of Delware/New Jersey for a bit, bringing lots of surge to parts of the area. Tropical Storm watches have been extended all the way to Rhode Island. Hermine is going to affect nearly the entire east coast's labor day weekend.

1:30AM EDT Update 2 September 2016
Hermine has made landfall just east of St. Marks, breaking the nearly 11 year span of no landfalling hurricanes in Florida.

3:00PM Update 1 September 2016
Hermine has now reached hurricane status based on recon reports.

Let us know conditions in your area here http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=96502&gonew=1#UNREAD



2:30PM Update 1 September 2016
Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended southward to Englewood (S. of Tampa) on the west coast of Florida, and south to the Volusia/Flagler Line on the east coast due to the large tropical storm force windfield to the south and east of Hermine.

7AM Update 1 September 2016
Tropical Storm Hermine is nearing hurricane strength this morning based on recent recon reports of 994mb and 70 knot winds just east of the center at flight level.

The landfall is forecast for near Apalachee bay around 1AM this morning, this is a slight shift east from last night. Considering most of the heavy convection and wind is on the east side of the system.



Hurricane Warnings are up for the Panhandle, but it also important to note the Tropical Storm warnings on the east coast Marineland to South Santee River and the watches north of that to Surf City, NC. Hermine could be affecting a lot of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coastlines with rain, wind, and some surge.

11PM Update 31 August 2016
Hermine has strengthened a bit faster than anticipated and now has 60mph winds, and is now forecast to be a hurricane at landfall. If it does so it will be the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in nearly 11 years. Landfall is forecast to be near Alligator Point in the Panhandle pre dawn Friday morning, with most of the rain and wind to the east and south.

Hurricane Warnings are now up
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach
Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Florida Emergency management: http://www.floridadisaster.org/index.asp

Let us know what you are seeing from Hermine in your area in this thread.

Original Update
Tropical Depression 9, which went on for days as 99L before then has now become Tropical Storm Hermine.
Hurricane Watches are in effect for...Anclote River to Indian Pass as it is still possible for Hermine to briefly become a hurricane before landfall
Tropical Storm Warnings Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County line
Tropical Storm Watches along the east coast: Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Some of the top threats include heavy rain, storm surge near and east of where the storm makes landfall, and short lived tornadoes. Hermine is a VERY large storm, but not strong, and is partly why it has been so slow to get organized. Points beyond landfall in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic warrant attention also.

More to come soon..

Mark Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is on the way to Florida to investigate the landfall, follow along at

{{StormLinks|Hermine|9|9|2016|09|Hermine}}

Miami Long Range Radar Recording for 99L
Florida Radar Recording for 99L

{{NERadar}}

{{MidAtlanticRadar}}

{{StormLinks|Gaston|07|7|2016|07|Gaston}}

{{StormLinks|92L|92|10|2016|92|92L}}

{{NortheastGulfRadar}}

{{TampaMedia}}


{{NCCoastMedia}}

{{FloridaPowerOutage}}

Hawaii Storm Info

{{HawaiiStorm}}


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 31 2016 06:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Recon has shown a center reformation was likely and slightly stronger winds, Hermine is a very large system so any strength changes will likely take a while, unless the system gets vertically stacked, so too rapid of a change isn't likely. Landfall still looks likely late Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Last recon vortex message has it down to 1002mb, and 52knot flight level winds, so surface wind may go up to 50MPH at 8PM.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 31 2016 07:24 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Recon's last pass found pressures down to 1000 mb,

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 31 2016 08:00 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

The NOAA recon is on its way back the USAF recon plane took off recently and appears to be aborting and returning to base (mechanical problems?)

Update: Recon is back on the way.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 31 2016 09:16 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Looks like a huge jump to the east over the past few hours. I'm definitely interested to see how that plays out in future forecast tracks. I know portions of Pinellas County have already received over 10" today, and we're just getting started.

Robert e p
(Registered User)
Wed Aug 31 2016 09:44 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

I'm glad it wasn't just me. I thought I was seeing things.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 31 2016 09:57 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

As for location and direction, Hermine's center of circulation appears to be oval in shape, with what could be two primary lobes rotating about a mean center. The center itself may be rotating about its own axis, and the individual lobes also have been creating additional difficulty nailing down the exact center location, and motion. Apparent jumps in the center may be as much an illusion created by the elongated, multi-lobed nature of Hermine's core, as that of it trying to align with the deepest convection and mid-level circ. - Until this clears up, it may be helpful to focus on the overall motion of the entire system to determine its direction.

As for intensity, Hermine's intensification is running ahead of schedule. Official NHC forecast calls for 60MPH at 4PM CDT Thursday, but it is already looking likely that we see 60 or even higher by the 10PM advisory tonight. TS winds are very heavily weighted to the south to east regions of the storm, and extend well out from the center. Storm surge has already started on Cedar Key, and much of the state may experience higher surge totals than presently forecast, given the large expanse of winds blowing into the progressively shallower and shallower shore, not to mention the increasing risk of a hurricane prior to landfall.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 31 2016 10:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Latest recon fix is at 25.7N 87.0W at 999mb, so strengthening some, it looks really odd on sat photos, but it reformed east and is now moving north according to recon, that or the center lobe is looping around. I doubt the forecast track changes all that much at 11. Likely 999mb with 55mph winds.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 31 2016 11:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Well it went to 60 based on a later recon an down to 998mb, which is a drop of 6mb since 5pm, so it's stronger, surge estimates will surely go up and a hurricane warning is now up for the area.

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 01 2016 06:00 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

It will be interesting to see if Hermine behaves anything like the Rainfall Potential graphic from the NHC. There is a huge amount of convection well south of the center. More south than the graphic predicts.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 01 2016 06:52 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Latest recon pass found 994mb of pressure, Hermine may be getting very close to hurricane strength soon.

Flight level winds of 70knots east of the center,so could be raised to 65 or 70mph for surface winds at the 8AM advisory.


EMZelaya
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 01 2016 07:50 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Anyone else feel the track is wrong? The northern most area of the storm has strongest winds and lowest pressure east of the "Center of circulation". There is also a cold front moving in that is in the projected north track. Something does not seem right....

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 01 2016 07:54 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

993mb now, with signs an eyewall is starting to form, and it's moving a bit more north northeast and starting to acceelerate. Still really bay on the west and southwest sides, but the trough is really venting it, and probably helping the winds accelerate. It's set up to become a big storm when it gets off the mid atlantic, it's never been all that organized, but the core energy was always good. It'll probably have more impacts on the SE/Mid Atlantic than many expected.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 01 2016 09:22 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Mark Sudduth set up a storm surge camera in St. Marks, FL time lapse recording http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?221

Live stream of it http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hbt4W9peBL...=20160901060821


St. Marks got a large storm surge from Dennis in 2005, and that made landfall closer to Pensacola, approximately got up to where the "3" is in the camera shot.


sfalcon
(Registered User)
Thu Sep 01 2016 01:11 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico


Honeymoon Island WebCam in Dunedin FL

http://visitdunedinfl.com/video2.php


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 01 2016 01:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Warnings have been extended southward. 000
WTNT34 KNHC 011713
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1200 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

CORRECTED TO REPLACE ARIPEKA WITH LONGBOAT KEY IN FIRST
PARAGRAPH OF STORM SURGE HAZARD STATEMENT

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG FLORIDA GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward along the
west coast of Florida to Englewood, including the greater Tampa/St.
Petersburg area, and southward along the east coast of Florida to
the Flagler/Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line
* Flagler/Volusia County line to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere along the United States mid-Atlantic and
northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 01 2016 02:41 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Added several recordings for Hermine on http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 01 2016 03:22 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Storm Surge is very apparant at Cedar Key on the Hurricantrack camera http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF

Recon is finding higher winds that 75 now.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 01 2016 04:09 PM
Re: Hurricane Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Today is the first day that there have been multiple hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time since Sept 10, 2012, per Phil Klotzbach - another verification that 2016 is the busiest Atlantic Hurricane Season since that year.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/771430642324123648


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Sep 01 2016 05:13 PM
Re: Hurricane Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

NHC Key Messages Tonight

Noteworthy: Lesson learned from Superstorm Sandy (Item #4).




JMII
(Weather Master)
Thu Sep 01 2016 05:39 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Quote:

Mark Sudduth set up a storm surge camera in St. Marks, FL time lapse recording. St. Marks got a large storm surge from Dennis in 2005, and that made landfall closer to Pensacola, approximately got up to where the "3" is in the camera shot.




Been watching this feed on and off today. What is amazing is this 5 miles up the river and Hermine's eye is still 6+ hours away. Granted the water has no place to go except UP the river, but living on the east coast of FL a 5 mile inland surge is hard to imagine.

Location of cam:
30° 9'18.14"N
84°12'13.17"W


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 01 2016 08:17 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

The storm appears to be either tightening up right now, or slowing a bit on forward motion, perhaps both. Neither is good. This system is bound to go right over Tallahassee at this rate.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 02 2016 12:20 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

I'm watching and it seems to me that it is just about to make landfall in a couple of hours. We have friends that are staying with us from Mulberry who lost power hours ago..TECO is reporting that almost 15,000 people in the Tampa Bay area have lost power...yet we have only had a few rain bands come through...glad we have room for them. Having watched the last rain bands that are coming through the area - they're not moving as fast and it looks like for us - a lot of rain to our north. That's my last report for tonight. Stay safe everyone!

cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 02 2016 10:08 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Has anyone seen any reports from any stations or buoys last night/early AM of sustained hurricane force winds (other than NHC official statement and that final dropsonde before landfall)?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 02 2016 10:08 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

During and just after a storm it becomes very difficult to keep track of everything going on, various media outlets friends family tends to be the best sources on what has happened. If you need to contact folks in the hit areas, use social media and texts as they can get through a bit easier than regular phone calls.

Hermine is expected to exit back into the Ocean Saturday morning and possibly hang out and convert to extratropical just offshore New Jersey next week, so Hermine's effects are far from over.

Strongest Winds were around Tallahassee and then along the Florida West coast,

92L has also been reactivated.


Prospero
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 02 2016 10:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

I've looked at weather station data on Weather Underground and SailFlow and really the strongest winds and gusts recorded that I have seen are here in Pinellas County, with Indian Shores taking the top spot at with sustained winds between 40 and 50 mph and more than one gust of 78mph.

There are a couple stations that are down near where the eye went in and they went offline while having gusts in the 50s.


Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Sep 02 2016 10:37 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

The Weather Channel had some of their folks in Tallahassee and they reported sustained winds of hurricane force. The Tallahassee NWS office lost their wind equipment in the eyewall as Hermine passed just to the east.
ED


JMII
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 02 2016 11:55 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Quote:

I've looked at weather station data on Weather Underground... and they went offline while having gusts in the 50s.




This is what I've seen as well. I think most damage will be surge related directly along the coast. Hermine was just starting to get its act together as it came on onshore. The eye wall never full wrapped around so the core wasn't bad, but clearly the edges and the stronger bands had some hurricane forces gusts.

The risk for tornadoes and coastal flooding will follow the storm up the east coast thru the entire holiday weekend.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 02 2016 12:57 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

To add to what Ed has said, it usually takes a pretty stout breeze to knock out professionally installed anemometers, and several were lost overnight. It is incorrect to conclude that the maximum wind speed at a given location was "x" because that was the highest that station reported prior to being sent offline.

Velocity data during Hermine's lowest pressures near and at landfall (982-984mb) showed reliable peak winds of 90 to 115 MPH aloft between 200' and 3000' above the surface, located in a few sizable sections of the incipient eyewall. This coincides well with recon data finding reliable winds at or above 100 MPH at flight level in many locations. While Hermine did not appear to be the most efficient tropical cyclone at working these very strong winds located just above the surface down to the surface, it is reasonable to go with a 20% reduction, and that gels well with anecdotal reports coming in.


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 03 2016 12:31 PM
Re: Hurricane Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico

Outer banks getting hammered right now http://www.obxcams.com/


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