Tue Sep 13 2016 10:12 PM
Julia, Gulf Low and More in a Lit Up Atlantic

5:00AM EDT Update 22 September 2016

If you can believe it, the feature worth watching today may be the ghost of old Invest 92L, this morning a well-formed low once more, now just offshore of Corpus Christi, TX. Winds have been gusting as high as 55MPH on oil rigs (at elevations starting at 100' above the surface). More on this feature and what it might do going forward in the 92L Forecast Lounge.

Elsewhere, Karl has finally begun turning, Lisa is a sure fish spinner this week, the remnants of Julia persist along the east coast, and a few new waves worth eyeing are setting to roll off Africa.

5:30AM EDT Update 19 September 2016
Julia became a remnant low last night, at last. Or, is she? Only time will tell. This has truly been the year of the never-ending tropical cyclone.

A New W Atlantic Low and eventually Karl are the ones to watch for potential Bermuda impacts. Invest 96L will most likely spin fish northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

9:30AM EDT Update 18 September 2016
Night of the living dead Tropical Cyclones

She's baaaack. Forecasts of Julia's imminent death have been greatly exaggerated, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings may in fact be needed along the Carolina coasts by Monday, with the cyclone heading in that general direction and an increasingly less hostile environment on the way.

Also close to home, residual mid-level spin associated with the x-92L merger and a non-tropical trof persist in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This non-tropical activity tends to flare up during the day, and subside at night, bringing copious rains to southern Louisiana for the past two days, and is now tracking decidedly east. Development is not expected, but heavy showers are.

TS Karl is mostly following forecasts of a WSW motion while weak, and looks to begin leveling out and then heading WNW. Behind Karl Invest 96L is bringing blustery weather to the Cabo Verdes.

3:30PM EDT Update 14 September 2016
This update comes with several changes.

Old Invest 92L is still in the northern Gulf of Mexico, now interacting with a preexisting upper-level trof with an associated surface reflection. This system has persisted, with some increased convection noted today, and NHC has upped the odds for development to 20%. Blustery showers and thunderstorms for Texas and maybe Louisiana, regardless.

Julia was downgraded to a Tropical Depression early this morning, but it was a tenuous call not upgrading her back to Tropical Storm status by midday, and most recently Recon is finding winds at or above 40MPH, along with a center that keeps jumping further and further east to realign with convection that is being blown away by 20-30 knots of harsh shear. This system has been resilient from its early days as only an Invest, and holding its own, or even strengthening in the face of strong shear means there is no reason to take our eyes off of it.

TWELVE may very well have become a tropical storm last night, but was missed by scatterometer passes, and without Recon flying through, was maintained as a TD. The cyclone is now weaker, feeling the effects of some strong shear itself, but is still healthy, and is forecast to continue tracking west. A potential long-range threat, with speculation that far out being discussed in the Lounge.

Ian maintaining as a 50MPH Trop Storm, heading northeast, and will likely become post-tropical soon. But how about this, a new "named" strong subtropical storm has formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, actually in the Bay of Biscay between Spain, and France, and is being monitored by RSMC La Reunion! This subtropical cyclone has been dubbed "Subtropicale St├ęphanie," and being discussed in Other Storm Basins.

Bringing up the rear, yet another vigorous tropical wave is about to exit western Africa.


2:00PM EDT Update 14 September 2016
This update comes with a few changes.

Tropical Storm Julia continues pulling to the right of forecast, and the center has just emerged offshore of Savanna, Ga., presently located near 31.8N 80.8W Speculation on Julia's potential outcomes, including interaction with the warm waters east of Fl/Ga/SC, can be read about and discussed in the Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Lounge.

Invest 92L is sorta back. Yep. You may recall how this guy nearly became a classified TD while in the Florida Straits just a few days ago, but the next day was given hours left to survive in the face of extraordinarily high shear and dry air? Its remnants survived. (Again). Now interacting with troffines left in the wake of a mid-latitude cyclone and TS Julia, this feature is presently centered near 26N 91W in the northern Gulf of Mexico and may soon be re-invest tagged. Observations from buoys, CMAN stations and ships suggest that a broad surface low has formed, with some gusts to tropical storm force noted. NHC has just added this one to their most recent TWO

Invest 95L is now TD TWELVE over the Cabo Verde islands, and is expected to become a named tropical storm later today, and track west-northwest. The next name on the list is Karl.

Further east, yet another vigorous tropical wave is set to enter the Atlantic by the weekend.


Original entry

The most recent enigmatic tropical wave we have been following for many days, this one Invest 93L, has acquired sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone while right along the coast of northeast Florida tonight, and as it has been producing winds near or at tropical storm force through much of the day already, NHC has begun advisories on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of this pretty wild 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Still out in the central to eastern Atlantic are Tropical Storm Ian (from 94L), and a newer tropical wave with its associated area of low pressure, nearing the Cabo Verde islands (95L). What remains of Invest 92L is in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and has been getting drawn up into the circulation of Julia. Behind 95L and still inland over extreme western Africa is a potent looking Low.

{{StormLinks|Karl|12|12|2016|12|TS Karl}}
{{StormLinks|Lisa|13|13|2016|13|TS Lisa}}




Tue Sep 13 2016 11:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Julia Forms Near St Augustine, Florida

Possibly the first time since 1988 there has been a tropical storm officially form while inland over mainland US.

Can't remember ever seeing initial advisory position and forecast points look like this


INIT 14/0300Z 30.3N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/1200Z 31.2N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0000Z 31.8N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 32.1N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 32.3N 82.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 14 2016 03:03 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Julia Forms Near St Augustine, Florida

While it's not unheard of to see an inland forming TD, and rarely a TS, the NHC really tried to dig their heels in on this one.

There was a closed circulation that came onshore around WPB yesterday (the 11th) with convection that was 40+ MPH. I think the NHC didn't want to alarm schools / businesses as it moved onshore then paralleled the coast ~ 30 miles inland.

IMO, the NHC should be able to issue a "technical advisory" - one that says "this meteorological feature meets the technical definition of a named storm, but poses no more danger than typically forming seasonal thunderstorms. No additional and/or emergency action needed."

If they had that freedom, we would have a better scientific record in the future, but no schools / businesses would need to close in the present.

That said, I'll bet you a wooden nickel that this storm will be "post-season adjusted" to have it as a TS before landfall near WPB in the off season and have never had been classified had it not come onshore in the US.

Fri Sep 23 2016 02:16 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Julia Forms Near St Augustine, Florida

With Karl approaching Bermuda, I added a radar recording


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