2PM EDT 01 June 2022 Update
The formerly broad area of low pressure with several individual parts including what was east Pac Hurricane Agatha has become much better defined today, and we now have a good looking 'suspect area,' Invest 91L, in the northwestern Caribbean.
Recon has been tasked to fly into 91L tomorrow, which may already be designated a Tropical Cyclone by that time. The data recon collects will be invaluable in forecasting the system's future track and intensity. For now, models do not have the best handle, but generally take a developing cyclone across south Florida by and over the coming weekend.
-Ciel
2PM EDT 31 May 2022 Update
There is a bit of a jumbled grab bag of low pressure areas now across Central America, the extreme southern Bay of Campeche and the northwestern Caribbean, but it is becoming more obvious that what remains of former Hurricane Agatha is probably going to soon emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico and be a key player in the weather making this week in the region and heading towards Florida later in the week.
This area of disturbed weather is not yet Invest tagged, but we are now tracking it in a Forecast Lounge titled Agatha and Company . This Lounge will be renamed as warranted (91L, etc.).
- Ciel
6AM EDT 28 May 2022 Update
While the Atlantic Remains Quiet, the first storm of the East Pacific Season has formed and likely will impact southern Mexico as a hurricane. This is Tropical Storm Agatha, and the Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado. Agatha is quickly gaining intensity this morning.
Portions of this area is fairly mountainous, but there remains the potential for the remnants of Agatha to re-emerge in or near the Southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche next week, so this system needs to be watched closely for the Atlantic basin later next week.
NHC's East Pacific Info Page
Original Update
The hybridish disturbance we have been tracking is now being highlighted by as well. Low odds of getting a name, but the weather it produces will be similar, regardless. This is being tracked as Invest 90L. This area only has a 10% chance for development and is unlikely to become named, however those along the northern Gulf coast, those in the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama, should watch it overnight tonight..
This hybrid Low (#90L) in the northern Gulf we are tracking continues to organize and take on more of the features associated with classic subtropical cyclones. In fact, recently there have been some pockets of sustained convection and stronger winds closer to the center - as one would expect in a system becoming more tropical. Interests in the northern Gulf and along the coast may want to continue to monitor this Invest. Moderate to heavy rains, lightning and potentially damaging wind gusts are likely to occur, as well as some risk of waterspouts and tornadoes, regardless of classification.
The official start of the 2022 Hurricane Season is June 1st, the first name on the list is Alex.
More information and discussion about 90L can be found in the Forecast Lounge.
Edited by CFHC (Thu Jun 02 2022 08:41 PM)
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