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News Talkback >> 2022 News Talkbacks

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Pre-Season Areas
      #114091 - Sun May 22 2022 03:35 PM

2PM EDT 01 June 2022 Update
The formerly broad area of low pressure with several individual parts including what was east Pac Hurricane Agatha has become much better defined today, and we now have a good looking 'suspect area,' Invest 91L, in the northwestern Caribbean.

Recon has been tasked to fly into 91L tomorrow, which may already be designated a Tropical Cyclone by that time. The data recon collects will be invaluable in forecasting the system's future track and intensity. For now, models do not have the best handle, but generally take a developing cyclone across south Florida by and over the coming weekend.
-Ciel

2PM EDT 31 May 2022 Update

There is a bit of a jumbled grab bag of low pressure areas now across Central America, the extreme southern Bay of Campeche and the northwestern Caribbean, but it is becoming more obvious that what remains of former Hurricane Agatha is probably going to soon emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico and be a key player in the weather making this week in the region and heading towards Florida later in the week.

This area of disturbed weather is not yet Invest tagged, but we are now tracking it in a Forecast Lounge titled Agatha and Company . This Lounge will be renamed as warranted (91L, etc.).
- Ciel

6AM EDT 28 May 2022 Update

While the Atlantic Remains Quiet, the first storm of the East Pacific Season has formed and likely will impact southern Mexico as a hurricane. This is Tropical Storm Agatha, and the Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado. Agatha is quickly gaining intensity this morning.

Portions of this area is fairly mountainous, but there remains the potential for the remnants of Agatha to re-emerge in or near the Southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche next week, so this system needs to be watched closely for the Atlantic basin later next week.

NHC's East Pacific Info Page

Original Update

The hybridish disturbance we have been tracking is now being highlighted by NHC as well. Low odds of getting a name, but the weather it produces will be similar, regardless. This is being tracked as Invest 90L. This area only has a 10% chance for development and is unlikely to become named, however those along the northern Gulf coast, those in the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama, should watch it overnight tonight..

This hybrid Low (#90L) in the northern Gulf we are tracking continues to organize and take on more of the features associated with classic subtropical cyclones. In fact, recently there have been some pockets of sustained convection and stronger winds closer to the center - as one would expect in a system becoming more tropical. Interests in the northern Gulf and along the coast may want to continue to monitor this Invest. Moderate to heavy rains, lightning and potentially damaging wind gusts are likely to occur, as well as some risk of waterspouts and tornadoes, regardless of classification.

The official start of the 2022 Hurricane Season is June 1st, the first name on the list is Alex.

More information and discussion about 90L can be found in the Forecast Lounge.



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Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Florida Panhandle Media/Links

WJHG TV 7 (NBC) Panama City Beach, FL

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Newspapers Panama City Beach News Herald

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]https://wflafm.iheart.com/ 100.7 WFLA News Radio Tallahassee, FL]

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Potential tropical cyclone 1 Event Related Links


float1latest.gif stormplotthumb_1.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=1 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of ptc1
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of ptc1


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of ptc1 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of ptc1 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of ptc1

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for ptc1
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on ptc1 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



Edited by CFHC (Thu Jun 02 2022 04:41 PM)


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