MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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1PM EDT Update 13 June
The center of Invest 90L may be pulling away from Florida, but the deep tropical fetch and Central American Gyre that helped create it are still very much in place. Locations in South Florida particularly remain at HIGH RISK today for life-threatening flash flooding.
From NWS WPCQuote:
A HIGH RISK of Excessive Rainfall is now in effect across parts of South Florida (including the Miami metro region) as additional rounds of heavy rain are likely today over very sensitive locations still recovering from yesterday's flooding. Stay weather aware!
Recon is flying two missions this week. The first, an unassigned presently about the Yucatan. Tomorrow, into 90L off the east coast. Today's scheduled flight into 90L was cancelled.
The active June pattern continues.
-Ciel
2PM EDT Update 8 June
Over the past few decades, once a year or two on average a named storm forms in June in the western Atlantic. Early season activity is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season overall, but suffice it to say, nearly all professional forecasts are now calling for an above average to record setting season and pre-peak development would not surprise.
While most ferocious hurricanes tend to form and threaten during peak months of August through October, even sloppy "weak" tropical cyclones (Depressions and Tropical Storms) can wreak havoc, usually due to excessive rainfall and subsequent flooding.
We are now starting to pay close attention to a developing Central American Gyre in the western Atlantic. These features are fairly common this time of year for that region, but sometimes they can create and/or enhance favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation that then nearly always impacts land. Even without TC genesis, these broad parental areas of low pressure frequently generate ongoing and often heavy rains.
The operational and many of its ensemble members have been sniffing out a TC developing out of this CAG soup and spinning up close to Florida on or about the 15th (Forecast Lounge discussion).There has been some back and forth on this model's forecast intensity, but a few other models and/or their ensemble members are now coming more on board with this idea and providing some better consensus that development may occur close to home, and we will be paying close attention.
While things are still quiet, now would be a great time to gather up the essentials and create plans for potential power loss, flooding and the like.
-Ciel
Original Update
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2024. The National Hurricane Center will resume outlooks a few weeks ahead of that, however, beginning May 15th, the Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume.
Here are the list of names for 2024:
2024: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, , Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, William
The last time this list of names was used was in 2018, of the names from 2018 Milton replaced Michael on the list, which was a category 5 hurricane that made landfall near Mexico Beach, FL on October 10, 2018. And Francine replaced Florence that made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina on September 14th, 2018.
If we use up all the names for 2024, then the National Hurricane Center will start to use the Alternate naming list, which is
Alternate name list:
Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana, Will
With la nina likely, this year is more probable for a high number of systems, and the prevailing patterns also suggest they will be further west, with more toward the west Atlantic than last year. Some of the numbers for the season are much higher than usual, including Colorado State which is projecting 23 named storms (more than they have ever projected before in April). So this year in particular is one to watch out for more impacts than last year, which had a lot of activity, but most of it stayed away from land. Idalia being the biggest one last year for Florida.
Flhurricane is moved to a different server this year, but the late 90s look is still here. Some of the backend was updated along with the server (newer versions, etc) but the site is mostly unchanged.
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Jun 14 2024 12:18 AM)
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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FYI - I just came across these NOAA estimates and, frankly, I am scared (Ian totaled our house, we just moved back in a few months ago).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENkhPEO1VYY
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
Edited by vineyardsaker (Thu May 23 2024 06:51 PM)
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bob3d
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Pasco County, Florida
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Next week, I am removing the last tree that can possibly hit my house during a wind event. With the forecast set at up to 25 storms this year, I have to believe that, at the very least, one storm will hit Central Florida this year.
Edited by bob3d (Fri May 24 2024 12:51 PM)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 303
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Not sure what kind of tree you have, but if at all possible, thin out the internal tree branches so that the wind can pass through it instead of toppling. I have oak trees and cabbage palm trees throughout my yard one block from the Atlantic and this canopy has helped to catch wind-blown debris off the ocean front condos during 4 tropical storms and a pair of major hurricanes that have passed nearby in the past 9 hurricane seasons that I have lived here in Daytona Beach Shores. If the wind can flow through the structure of the tree (pines excluded!), it can stop debris that might otherwise hit your home.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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