9AM 17 June 2024 Update
The large and sprawling Central American Gyre now has two main areas of enhanced/enhancing vorticity associated with it. First, newly-tagged Invest 91L that is attempting to consolidate and build down towards the surface in the southwestern Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf of Mexico), and Invest 90E on the Eastern Pacific side that has moved inland over Central America and is currently being absorbed by the parent Gyre.
NHC odds are now up to 70% within 48 hours that Invest 91L becomes a bona fide tropical cyclone in the western Gulf. There is a lot of potential for this system to create regional and localized significant and life-threatening flooding with several days of rains and thunderstorms, regardless of development.
Elsewhere, well east of the Bahamas the weak non-tropical low that has developed on the tail-end of an old front and residuals of old 90L still has has a fair chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone before crossing back over Florida and/or the southeastern US in a few days.
-Ciel
8AM 16 June 2024 Update
The area in the Atlantic is now up to a 30% chance for development, with the area highlighted from all of the east coast of Florida into Georgia currently. This likely will be a fast moving rain maker for wherever it makes landfall, and just to the right of that. Likely as early as Thursday.
The area in the gulf is about 60% chance and also most likely a flooding rain maker (albeit a slower moving one than the Atlantic) for Northern Mexico and Parts of Southeastern Texas.
Both should be continued to watch this week.
Original Update
There are two areas of Interest currently, one area in the gulf now has a 60% chance to develop, and this Gulf area is likely not to get too strong, however it could dump flooding rains over Mexico and parts of Texas, including San Antonio and Austin.
The new area is 20% east of the Bahamas and could arrive to Florida or Georgia by Thursday later this week.
This system would arrive mid to late week (Thursday-Friday) before anything would happen there, and moving quickly so time is likely to keep it weaker, and bring some rain (but rain likely won't linger as long).
Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jun 17 2024 09:25 AM)
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