CFHC
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Loc: East Central Florida
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8:00AM CDT 16 June, 2026 Update
Invest 90L is over land and still has a 60% chance to develop. The energy is stretched out along the front, but the best track position has it located there northwest of Brownsville near Encino, TX. This area has a chance to develop once it reaches the water, but anything that does (if it does) is likely to be short lived. The impact remains heavy, flooding rainfall.
1:40PM CDT 15 June, 2026 Update
The Area of Interest has just been Invest-tagged, 90L. Specialized model runs will begin shortly and recon is being tentatively scheduled.
Ciel
1:00PM CDT 15 June, 2026 Update
Chances for development of this system are up to 50%, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings could be issued as early as tomorrow for portions of the NW Gulf.
12:00PM CDT 15 June, 2026 Update
Widespread flash flooding, some of it catastrophic, continues. WPC has greatly expanded the MODERATE RISK outline
4:45PM CDT 14 June, 2026 Update
The risk of Flash Flooding across the south is going way up in response to the abundant influx of deep, tropical moisture courtesy of the area of low pressure we have been tracking and which is now inland over northeastern Mexico feeding into and interacting with an approaching wind shift front that is forecast to pull up mostly stationary for several days. Ground will likely become saturated if it isn't already across portions of south Texas, southeast Texas and Louisiana, and a multi-day, life-threatening flood event may be setting up.
Ciel
10:00AM CDT 13 June, 2026 Update
Above: This morning's visible image of the Gulf Low overlaid with -analyzed 10-meter winds cr. TC-ATLAS
The Low in the western Gulf continues to gradually become better organized and is now likely centered just east of Tampico, MX, heading generally NW to NNW. Fluctuations in its path are likely over the next 3-7 days, but it is mostly modeled to head inland and then either track just inland from the coast of Texas, bumping into an approaching front, or reemerge off the coast roughly east of Brownsville, TX early next week.
The greatest risk with the area of low pressure in the western Gulf is going to be from the potential for several days of tropical rainfall and flooding, regardless of whether or not it becomes a Tropical Depression. The same will be true should it become a Tropical Depression, but never get a name. This is a system that is cranking up loads and loads of moisture into eastern Mexico, Texas and Louisiana, is likely to get stuck underneath a stalling front, and then get wrung out over the course of 3-7 days over many of the same areas. Flooding is always a serious risk with 'weak' systems that slow down or stall, but unfortunately, all-too-often these systems do not get the attention they deserve because they lack a name or title.
-Ciel
7:45AM CDT 12 June, 2026 Update
An area of low pressure has indeed formed in the Bay of Campeche. This is a very favorable region for Tropical Cyclogenesis and despite less-than-ideal conditions for development, development is possible and in fact the odds appear to be going up. An Invest tag is likely coming, specialized model runs would be added, and perhaps recon will also be tasked, depending.
-Ciel
Original Update
The 8am update for the tropical weather outlook now has the first area of interest for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season. This area would be the remnants of Cristina in the East Pacific after it crosses Guatemala and Mexico, which has a lot of high mountains. It's overall unlikely to develop, but worth watching in those areas and later on in the Gulf side of Mexico, and rainfall could reach its way into Texas after this. It'll be monitored for mid to late next week, but at this time development chances appear to be very low.
The remnants of east pacific Cristina with some tropical storm warnings up along Guatemala and El Salvador now:
Forecast Lounge discussion for this system in https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat...gonew=1#UNREAD
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2691
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jun 14 2026 - 12Z Mon Jun 15 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 15 2026 - 12Z Tue Jun 16 2026
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOUTH TEXAS...
...Southeastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley...
In coordination with the Brownsville and Corpus Cristi offices, we
have introduced a Moderate Risk area to South Texas for this
Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Though there remains uncertainty in the
path/strength of the mid-level system over northeastern Mexico,
most of the guidance does bring it to the US/Mexican border by 12Z
Tue, acting as a trigger to the moisture-laden atmosphere with
PWATs of over 2 inches up to near 2.5 inches (>99th percentile or
+4 sigma). As this feature pushes northeastward out of the
mountains of Mexico towards south Texas, it will not only increase
the low level inflow of tropical moisture, but will provide ample
forcing to organize the storms into slow-moving lines of training
cells that track northward/northwestward with time up the Rio
Grande. Any and all storms will have impressive amounts of
moisture to work with to produce heavy rain given the fully
saturated lower atmosphere all the way up to the tropopause per
some forecast soundings. Instability due to extensive cloud cover
commensurate with such amounts of moisture will likely be the only
limiting factor for coverage of heavy rain. Focused the Moderate
Risk on the highest HREF/REFS probs for heavier rain and some very
robust CAM (>5-8"), but with room to maneuver in subsequent
issuances based on the rainfall that falls tonight.
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2691
Loc: Austin, Tx
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