doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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16 storms
8 hurricane
4 intense (3 or higher)
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doug
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
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19/10/7
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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bob3d
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 36
Loc: Pasco County, Florida
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20/10/5
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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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22/12/5
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2022 forecast 21/11/4; 0/0/0 as of 6/1
South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 461
Loc: Georgia Tech
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First, a small brag. I finally got my Master's degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences from Georgia Tech. Not Sure if I'm going to go PhD or get a 'real' job. But one step at a time.
Now, onto my predictions:
(Tropical Depressions = 18 - just for my own baseline)
Tropical Storms: 17
Hurricanes= 7
Major Hurricanes = 4
(ACE = 145)
I've finally convinced myself that shear will be high enough to reduce the total hurricane numbers down, but it will still be an active season overall Storms will get going, but a lot will be weak and sheared, but if they do find a pocket to develop, they'll take off like they ingested rocket fuel.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022
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vpbob21
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
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19/9/5
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 197
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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15/9/4
Was going to start with 16 named then progressively divide by 2 (like Doug and CSU's April forecast), but in order not to duplicate I subtracted 1 from named, added 1 to canes and kept majors at 4.
I believe shear will somewhat temper the strength and the total number of tropical storms, but if 50-60 mph is achieved, game on for additional (and potentially rapid) intensification given historically warm SST's in the MDR:
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa...hurricanes.html
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 158
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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15/8/4 for me.
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Hello again my friends. 2020 hasn't been kind so:
21/10/7
Why not?
D!
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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19/10/4 neutral again this year leaning possible La Nina by the end of the year should keep shear lower all summer / fall
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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M.A.
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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Congratulations Bloodstar!!!
16/9/3
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gsand
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
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16/7/3. Early start again this year but looks like shear will be around a while. Been a weird spring in many ways...
Congrats Bloodstar! Stay safe and healthy everyone.
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Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2021 Forecast- 15/6/3
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EMS
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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18/9/6. Emerging La Niña plus warm Atlantic waters make for an extremely active season
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bob3d
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 36
Loc: Pasco County, Florida
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13-19 / 6-10 / 3-6 according to NOAA.
Edited by bob3d (Thu May 21 2020 12:45 PM)
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IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Orlando
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I have a suspicion that we will be busy this year.
18 / 9 / 5
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Valandil
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Hamburg, Germany
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20/10/5
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 197
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Gonna up the named total a couple to compensate for the early activity, and cut the mediocre canes down one due to shear:
17/8/4
Some models hint that another tropical storm will spin up in the GOMEX in early June. Sticking with 4 majors... "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger"..
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Tue May 26 2020 08:34 PM)
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 461
Loc: Georgia Tech
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Anyone else having urges to nudge their forecast totals up a little? =)
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Happy 2020 Hurricane Season, all. Hope it's a safe one!
It appears I'm in good (or bad, depending) company. We all seem fairly well clustered. My forecast is based solely on a system I have used and refined for many years, and I had not seen the other forecasts above prior to posting just now.
My reaction upon seeing all of these similar numbers was a bit of concern for us being way off base. Too much consensus always leaves me wondering if maybe we have some group think going on. On the other hand, no doubt we are all seeing many of the same things - as is my system - which is mathematical, and only includes a modest allowance for personal opinion to be included.
My net forecast for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Named Storms: 19, Hurricanes: 10, Majors: 4
With a likely range of: Named Storms: 15-23, Hurricanes: 8-12, Majors: 3-5.
Above average risk of US landfalls from Texas all the way to New England, including an above average risk of at least one landfalling Major.
An interesting footnote: one potential caveat to the season forecast could be any effect/s from the result of greatly reduced contrails - something not easily modeled and with virtually no historical reference (other going way, way back, to when recorded season totals are much in doubt as it is). I am already curious if the below-average vertical instability present for months across the Atlantic basin is related to this. Besides, regardless of its cause, I am simply concerned that this subpar instability could result in my season forecast busting.
I am nonetheless expecting vertical instability to increase and perhaps even go above average by the time the bulk of the climatological season arrives, but as for my forecast this year, despite being in "good company" ... I am in good company, right guys? ;-) ... I would call this a low-confidence forecast, with a potential to bust by a wide margin on either side (low or high)
My final 2020 forecast: Named Storms: 19, Hurricanes: 10, Majors: 4
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