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Recon finding #Sam a vigorous Cat 4 and may be knocking on Cat 5 w/ a tight inner core. Hopefully staying away from land.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Nicholas) , Major: 28 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1082 (Michael) Major: 1082 (Michael)
13.9N 50.2W
Wind: 145MPH
Pres: 943mb
Wnw at 8 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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Weather Master

Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: mikethewreck]
      #101141 - Sat Aug 01 2020 11:19 PM


Looks like a decoupling between the low level center and another spin setting up further east. Look at it on radar (Bahamas and Miami), I think I can see two different vortices.

Its been like that since 5PM... crazy huh? Somehow that 2nd spin to the NE, which contains all the moisture, has managed to stay alive and not fizzle out. The main rotation around the true low pressure center is barely moving. Its so broad that the wind speed can't increase. Per the water vapor loop its finally pushed all the dry air out and starting to generate outflow again. However if it can't draw moisture in and shrink the core the winds will not increase.

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Weather Master

Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101146 - Sun Aug 02 2020 08:57 AM

The shear continues to keep Isaias completely in check, it can't wrap up. The moisture envelope is actually expanding but the feeder band inflow is too weak to provide any power. The thunderstorms rise up only to be cut down before they can get embedded into any rotational pattern. Thus the pressure never drops leaving the winds too weak to draw in more fuel. So the storm can't consolidate any of the available moisture from the Gulf Stream. The pattern from the last 48 hours has remained - all the strong weather is in the NE quad where it spins off without ever getting draw into the core. Freeport is in the worse of it right now and the wind is only 30 with gusts to 45 MPH.

I guess at some point the center might get close enough to the FL coast that some of those stronger bits could come ashore but even then your looking at TS gusts at the most. What we have here is just a blob of clouds with patches of heavy rain and no real organization which would lead to strengthening. The dry air continues limit outflow so the whole thing can't vent properly. Its a zombie... a dead storm that continues on its forecast path dragging its broken limbs along the ground behind it.

South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)

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Verified CFHC User

Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #101148 - Sun Aug 02 2020 10:15 AM

Radar is starting to show cast off bands moving across the state now. Will probabaly start raining in my area around 1pm as the humidity and temp rises. I'm wondering how they are tracking this storm. No spin, breaking apart and it appears to be drifting more than moving on it's own.

Wesley Chapel FL

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Weather Master

Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #101150 - Sun Aug 02 2020 10:46 AM

Isaias continues to generate quick and massive convection.

Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

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Weather Master

Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Isaias Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #101151 - Sun Aug 02 2020 11:44 AM

It looks impressive on the satellite but the radar tells a different story. None of that energy ever wraps around the low pressure center. You can watch these strong cells build up, start rotating, then spin themselves out like a car taking a corner too quickly. Its almost like there is an invisible net that is catching all the rain resulting in Isaias being just 1/2 a storm.

Small, quick moving squalls are coming ashore from the Cape up to Daytona. As the storm continues to track NNW points further north along the coast will encounter rain bands.

The center of Isaias is dry and not very windy at all so I'd monitor these radars loops for a better idea on localized tropical effects.

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