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Recon finding #Sam a vigorous Cat 4 and may be knocking on Cat 5 w/ a tight inner core. Hopefully staying away from land.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Nicholas) , Major: 28 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1082 (Michael) Major: 1082 (Michael)
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Wind: 145MPH
Pres: 943mb
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Wnw at 8 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101264 - Mon Aug 24 2020 11:29 AM

11AM they held steady looking for more recon information, which is finding it a bit south. There is still some shear on Tuesday to keep Laura in check, but that slips away by the evening tomorrow. There's a pretty good chance 5PM will have hurricane watches up in the Gulf. Probably from Freeport, TX to about Cameron, LA. (but that is just a lounge guess)

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 189
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #101265 - Mon Aug 24 2020 01:24 PM

After clearing Cuba's western tip, Laura has 36 hours (+/-4) or so to undergo rapid intensification and potentially double current wind speed suggested by GFS, which forecasts landfall late Wednesday evening at 957 mb along the NE Texas coast: https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_p06/gfs_namer_084_precip_p06.gif
Dvorak MSLP (Atlantic) 960 mb: Mean Wind Speed: 102 KTS/117 MPH Saffir/Simpson Category: 3 (97-113 KTS)

Edited by IsoFlame (Mon Aug 24 2020 01:31 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2106
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101268 - Tue Aug 25 2020 04:31 AM

25 0z EURO and ensembles have come in, once again drastically left of OFCL (NHC center line) and this time even more so. In addition, it is worth noting that UKMET has outperformed so far, and while waiting on today's 0z ensembles, those from yesterday were well into Texas, overall - almost unanimously landfalling between Corpus Christi and the TX/LA border.

As Philippe Papin, Atmospheric Scientist at NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, noted on Twitter earlier this morning, "Every single deterministic model has taken #Laura too far N at lead times +24h-120h. UKMET has performed best w/ track, but even it is slightly N of verification."

25 0z GFS ensemble members are almost entirely Texas landfalls.


The trend for a landfall centered in Texas rather than Louisiana continues, with a lot of ensembles honing in around Galveston/Houston. With the likelihood that Laura becomes a Major, this could be a rather 'worst case' outcome.

Two factors could serve to limit the death and destruction: 1. Forward speed should not be anything like Harvey, and 2. There are indications that at least some of the shear which served to shred Marco may still be present over a portion of the western Gulf, but counting on either or both to save the day seems foolish.

Residents along and many miles inland of the Texas coast from roughly Corpus Christi to the Louisiana border, as well as exposed portions of the entire Louisiana coastline and points inland (dangerous weather conditions will still extend a great distance from the center center, especially to the right of the center), may want to rush preparations to protect life and property as a large and significant hurricane could be making landfall within the next 40-60 hours, with weather rapidly deteriorating many hours before then.

It is also worth mentioning that a few ensemble members have been as far south as northeast Mexico/deep south Texas, but these are outliers.


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101272 - Tue Aug 25 2020 09:18 AM

Quote:

As Philippe Papin, Atmospheric Scientist at NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, noted on Twitter earlier this morning, "Every single deterministic model has taken #Laura too far N at lead times +24h-120h. UKMET has performed best w/ track, but even it is slightly N of verification."




The error in track guidance has been pretty large with Laura, even the 3 day cone which is normally trustworthy has been too far north especially if you go by the center line (which you shouldn't). However as a hurricane with clearly defined center (with an eye at some point) and what I assume will be more recon and upper air flights the forecast should improve as they focus on a TX landfall.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 189
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101273 - Tue Aug 25 2020 10:16 AM

Quote:

Two factors could serve to limit the death and destruction: 1. Forward speed should not be anything like Harvey, and 2. There are indications that at least some of the shear which served to shred Marco may still be present over a portion of the western Gulf, but counting on either or both to save the day seems foolish.

Residents along and many miles inland of the Texas coast from roughly Corpus Christi to the Louisiana border, as well as exposed portions of the entire Louisiana coastline and points inland (dangerous weather conditions will still extend a great distance from the center center, especially to the right of the center), may want to rush preparations to protect life and property as a large and significant hurricane could be making landfall within the next 40-60 hours, with weather rapidly deteriorating many hours before then.




Intensity guidance trending upward, some suggesting a strengthening major hurricane at landfall.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2106
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101274 - Tue Aug 25 2020 02:08 PM

Laura is now a latitude that almost entirely removes northeast Mexico/extreme south Texas from landfall. Still in play is Corpus Christi to New Orleans, an admittedly large spread, but also an admittedly unusually difficult tropical cyclone to forecast. This would be for where the eye of Laura makes landfall, not where the worst of the weather would necessarily occur.

Laura could begin turning to the north earlier than forecast if she ramps up quicker than forecast, but unless and until then track is locking in on a landfall center most likely between as far west as Freeport, Tx. to as far east as about Holly Beach, La.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 189
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Tropical Storm Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101275 - Tue Aug 25 2020 04:04 PM

FROM THE 2PM ADVISORY:
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.
Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft

The forward momentum and perpendicular approach to the Texas coast of the strengthening (and likely major at landfall) hurricane will make the impact of storm surge a great threat. Add to that a night time landfall~, coastal residents in and well to the east of where the eye eventually targets should conclude property preserving and life-saving plans for Laura's impending arrival..

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2106
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101276 - Tue Aug 25 2020 08:54 PM


Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation)

NHC Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
From 04 PM CDT Tuesday August 25 to 07 PM CDT Saturday August 29


Laura is not only strengthening tonight, but organizing in a very meaningful way, and may already be feeling the tug to the north that a stronger, deeper, more coherent and symmetric hurricane could.

It is too early to know, but it appears increasingly possible that Laura's eye now tracks into Louisiana rather than extreme SE TX. That said, weather is going to be brutal within many, many tens of miles either side of the eye, regardless, and regions in southern Louisiana are incredibly susceptible to deadly storm surge inundation, surge that will push inland for miles and miles in some places.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 189
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #101282 - Wed Aug 26 2020 03:15 PM

Pressure still dropping... down 4 mb from 1pm (CDT) advisory to 948 mb. Eye clearing out, concentric and well-defined.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 189
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101283 - Wed Aug 26 2020 03:51 PM

Not sure of the veracity (may be outdated) of the following information:

"Of the forty major hurricanes to cross the Gulf coast since 1900 - half made landfall with a pressure below 28.00 inches."

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 209
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Hurricane Laura Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #101284 - Wed Aug 26 2020 08:09 PM

4 ft of storm surge already being reported.

Fringe reports that if it drops much more that aspects of Louisiana might take up to 20 feet. They're trying to get people to GTFO because it's unsurvivable and juuuust like Katrina people are trying to hunker down.

Fifteen years since Katrina, huge swaths of New Orleans that are STILL uninhabited because nobody wants to live there and STILL people think they can wait a storm out versus hopping in a car, driving west until they can find the cheapest Hotel-6 with rooms and maybe save their lives.

Unbelievable.


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