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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Hurricane Matthew - It Could Get Interesting
      #97180 - Mon Oct 03 2016 09:07 PM

Matthew is a Category IV Major Hurricane located in the northern Caribbean Sea just to the south of the western tip of Haiti and the eastern tip of Cuba and it will move across both of those areas on a northward trek tonight and Tuesday. Winds are currently sustained at 140mph with gusts to 170mph and the central pressure is 934MB (27.58 inches). Tuesday afternoon Matthew will turn to the northwest, under the influence of a building ridge of high pressure to the north of the hurricane, while moving through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday with winds of 115mph gusting to 140mph (Category III).

On Friday morning and early afternoon Matthew should move parallel to and about 50 miles offshore of the Florida east coast from Jupiter to Daytona Beach. Closest approach to east central Florida expected to be around 11Z (7AM) on Friday morning. Winds in east central Florida will be out of the Northeast on Thursday evening becoming more Northerly Friday morning peaking at 50mph gusting to 65mph on the barrier islands and 40mph gusting to 50mph inland near I-95. I expect that the National Hurricane Center will issue a Tropical Storm Watch (or Warning) for the eastern portion of the Florida peninsula late tonight or early Tuesday morning.

Rainfall totals in east Florida are expected to be in the 3 - 5" range with some localized flooding likely. Storm surge in the 3 to 5 foot range is possible on the barrier islands as the hurricane approaches and the surface winds increase out of the northeast. Boats should be secured for strong tropical storm force winds and high waves. Rip current threat will increase on Thursday and Friday. Loose objects, lawn chairs, etc., should be secured or stored on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the weather deteriorates, provide shelter for your pets.

Use Tuesday to check on your storm supplies and replenish as needed. Have an adequate supply of drinking water and batteries on hand - if the storm track adjusts more to the west you just might need these items. Monitor the progress of this hurricane closely - if a Category III hurricane rides up the coast and you are in its path, do you have an evacuation plan? Hopefully Matthew will stay far enough offshore and the impacts will be minimal but being prepared is always a smart choice.

Edited by MikeC (Mon Oct 03 2016 09:39 PM)

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