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Archives 2000s >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
parade time [Re: JoshuaK]
      #83249 - Thu Aug 28 2008 08:49 PM

the north atlantic looks like it will be fairly lit up over the next few days.. and not just with those eastern/central atlantic fish storms that usually tend to be what make up the simultaneous activity. gustav is still down in the caribbean, grazing along the southern side of jamaica tonight. it keeps staying south and west of the forecast track, as land interactions keep muddling its movements, and keeping it from going into one of those sustained rapid deepening phases. still plenty of time for that. it should clear the island by early tomorrow and ought to be swelling into a scary strong hurricane as we go into the weekend. wouldn't be surprised if it completes an eyewall cycle before reaching the yucatan channel area. my idea on the storm isn't a whole lot different than the NHC, just thinking a tad to the west of their path. that's maybe more consoling to the new orleans crowd... Katrina put the fear into them. i reckon the NHC landfall forecast intensity is as good as anything we can go by. the storm will be mature, have probably completed an eyewall cycle or two.. and rounding the ridge periphery, probably moving out of its ideal environment. a bottom end category 3 or high end 2 seems like the most statistically likely strength for any landfall.. the big ones are usually weakening as the come in. of course, if it catches a second or third wind as it's nearing landfall, totally different story.. but the odds don't seem to favor that. gustav may be slowing down and bending left as some models are indicating, as it comes in around tuesday, september 2nd.
hanna is a whole different can of worms.. nowhere near as straightforward as gustav. the storm is wrestling with a stuck upper low, likely winning. its convection snapped off earlier; tonight it's firing some more. the storm track should take it into the diffluent/anticyclonic flow on the north flank of the upper low tomorrow... at least sustain it if not allow it to strengthen some. pretty much the whole model camp out there is taking it wnw to nw, getting it stuck under the same ridge gustav will orbit.. then forcing it sw slowly, or taking it west. the NHC track slows it about midway between bermuda and the bahamas, nudges it west... that's a compromise. i'd bet they're low on intensity, and i think the sw movement shown on some of the globals is greatly exaggerated--i.e. don't think it will hug cuba or go through the florida straits. it's way too far out to start guessing on which section of the southeast coast will be threatened, though it looks like most signs are pointing to, you guessed it, florida. model spread won't get things right until more of them start seeing gustav as a gulf hurricane, not the weak tropical storm the GFS has. don't want to buy into anything that much yet; still no guarantee it won't find a way to slip northeast past bermuda or just stall for half a week off the east coast.
not sure why the NHC put 96L up. not sure why it got a medium rating on development chances, either. the wave/low near 20/45 is more impressive by far, a large but still largely dry system. it should continue to trudge wnw... if it develops look for it to sneak up through the break in the ridge... an offering while hanna stays low and comes west. i'd put the odds of development a tad higher than the NHC does. the emerging wave is probably rated right. the models have been seeing it the way they saw bertha. one of these two systems should have developed by the end of the month. fyi most of the globals also keep the emerging wave on a low-west track. not encouraging, but early. the next two weeks are going to be harrowing.
HF 0149z29august


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: parade time [Re: HanKFranK]
      #83251 - Thu Aug 28 2008 09:09 PM

To me, it really looks like Gus is trying to form an eye. If you take a look at both the Water Vapor and IR loop, and look at the 00:15 UTC frame (which is currently the last frame), you will see a tiny little central spot that appears to be the point of rotation. In the frames before this, it is not apparent. Maybe I'm just seeing things, and the next couple of frames will go back to a disorganized look, as I wouldn't expect strengthening or maturation to occur while Gus is interacting with Jamaica.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: parade time [Re: Terra]
      #83253 - Thu Aug 28 2008 09:22 PM

looks to me, it looks like 96L has moved inland... around 19.5n and 97w... a small spin that appears to be in the lower levels is now over land... i don't see anything out in the BOC... 96L is looking like it may have been a mid-level blow-up and then a small vortice made it to the surface... but then moved inland into MX. we may get a newer surface feature tonight... but i'm not seeing that much in covection right now.. that could change, but we will have to wait and see

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 28 2008 09:22 PM)


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
Re: parade time [Re: Terra]
      #83258 - Thu Aug 28 2008 11:13 PM

Obviously the NHC feels that Gustav certainly could become a very dangerous hurricane...

HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

If he reaches 4 or 5 actually sooner may be better (for CONUS anyway) because climatology tells us it is very difficult for enviromental conditions to persist that would sustain a cat 4 or 5 for several days out...

time will tell

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: parade time [Re: HanKFranK]
      #83262 - Fri Aug 29 2008 12:33 AM

Hanna looks better at this point than Gustav. Looks like the shear has relaxed quite a bit earlier than the NHC had predicted...but she does looks a lot more organized than she did at 5pm.
Gustav, on the other hand, is interacting with Jamaica and looks like he is struggling..although maybe not for long...unless he decides to hit all the resorts along that lovely island which may throw a monkey wrench into the whole Gustav/Hanna scenario.
I made mention to someone else tonight...I have never seen anything out in the tropics like I have seen tonight. I thought 2004 was bad -- and I went through 3 different storms within weeks of each other..but I hope that people are not forgetting about Hanna. I will mention this as a precaution:
Three things are going to be the central focus on the news the next week or so: a) Gustav appearing to have his sights set on N.O.; b) the Labor Day weekend may have some people thinking that all is well all over the place EXCEPT for N.O. even with the "cone of error"; c) we have a lot of politics going on right now.
All of us need to make sure we pay very close attention to all of the tropical traffic going on out there. Please make sure that you have your hurricane plans in place if you don't already...

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: parade time [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #83264 - Fri Aug 29 2008 01:09 AM

Check this WV loop out...you can see the weakening in the ridge and the high building in over the Atlantic. I know it's only a loop, but it almost appears as if Gustav is moving pole-ward with Hanna reacting by moving westward.

Gustav and Hanna

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong...just my opinion on what I am seeing.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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xxflcyclonexx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 24
Loc: Charlotte County
Re: parade time [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83266 - Fri Aug 29 2008 01:15 AM

Great advice Colleen, so much going on in the world right now hopefully everybody will be prepared.


The Cayman Islands government's most recent advisory now says they expects hurricane conditions on Grand Cayman by late night Friday. Here's part of the advisory:

Published 28th August, 11:29pm
Tropical Storm Gustav update: 11 p.m. Thursday, 28 August 2008

Key messages:

1. A hurricane WARNING is in effect for the Cayman Islands.

2. Tropical Storm Gustav is expected to become a category 1 hurricane as it moves past Jamaica tonight.

3. Grand Cayman can expect tropical storm-force winds from the north to northwest by tomorrow evening (Friday, 29 August). Wind direction will shift southwest by late Friday night, with a peak in wind speed to hurricane force winds (74 mph, with higher gusts) by late night Friday.

4. The Sister Islands can expect tropical storm-force winds tomorrow afternoon (Friday, 29 August) from an east-northeasterly direction, veering to a southeasterly direction by evening. Winds over the Sister Islands are expected to peak at just above storm force (65mph, with higher gusts) by tomorrow evening.

5. At 10:00 p.m., the centre of Tropical Storm Gustav was located near 17.8 degrees north and 77.3 degrees west, or 210 miles southeast of the Sister Islands, and 275 miles east to southeast of Grand Cayman. Gustav is moving westerly at near 7 mph, with maximum sustained winds of near 70 mph.

6. Three to five inches of rainfall are expected, so some flooding of low-lying areas is likely. All residents should take necessary precautions.

7. Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate from mid-Friday morning. All marine interests should therefore be in safe harbour, and remain there until further notice.

8. Owen Roberts International Airport is now in full emergency mode, streamlining the departure check in process in tent facilities outside the terminal building.

9. Because of Gustav's unpredictability and strength, residents are encouraged to check local weather updates early in the morning.

http://www.caymanprepared.ky/portal/page?_pageid=1143,3248590&_dad=portal&_schema=portal


"All scheduled flights on Saturday, August 30th have been cancelled."

More Cayman Islands flight info:

http://www.caymanprepared.ky/portal/page?_pageid=1143,3248619&_dad=portal&_schema=portal


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Recon in Gustav [Re: xxflcyclonexx]
      #83274 - Fri Aug 29 2008 04:34 AM

The center is about to leave Jamaica, but must be still a bit inland or at least partly inland over southwestern Jamaica. Recon couldn´t penetrate it fully. Highest flight level/surface winds are 49 kt and pressure 992 hPa. The winds in the bands around Jamaica aren´t much weaker with 40-45 kt.
The center has to move away from Jamaica and to rebuilt a bit and then everything can happen including phases of rapid intensification


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: parade time [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #83275 - Fri Aug 29 2008 04:55 AM

Do me a favor and pull up the 850, 700, 500 (29/00Z not avbl), 300 and 200 mb height/temp with winds and height changes from NWS FTP Fax. Do a manual analysis of the contours and streamlines and you will note as does the watervapor loop the extension of the longwave trough over the Eastern US. You will note there is a clear break in the upper ridge with one center over TX and the other over FL, but no longer is there a ridge axis, but in fact a trough axis NE to SW oriented in the GOM. Whatever you're looking at over 19.5N and 97W is at best very shallow and the environment would be hostiale for development as per CIMMS Wind Shear Analysis that indicates 20 to 30 knot winds from the NW, only over land do the winds decrease to 10 knots.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: parade time [Re: berrywr]
      #83276 - Fri Aug 29 2008 05:34 AM

It's almost like my body is back in the swing, waking me up at 4 to take a look at the 5am updates. Geez...

Although Gus managed to hold himself together pretty well, the pressure is up to 991, which doesn't make Gus all that much stronger than Hanna. But, as soon as he clears Jamaica, we'll have to see what happens. The NHC track has shifted a little more to the west. Some of the models seem to be tracking more to the west, as well, which probably correspond to that high over the Ohio Valley. But, of course, it's still too early to tell when all of these are going to come into play. I love how the discussion says, "There is a complicated evolution to the steering currents around Gustav during the forecast period." No kidding, right? It's mentioned in the discussion, and evident from the sats, that Gustav seems to be getting fatter.

Hanna has finally increased her windspeed. but looks like a poorly organized blob on the sats. Hanna has some shear issues that don't appear to be going away very soon. But, then again, she still has plenty of time to get her act together, so you can't rule her out yet.

I definitely agree with the post earlier about the activity level of the tropics... A little too much activity for me!

An aside.... I like to look back at previous model predictions to see which model (if any) predicted the current motion. And, from that, maybe I can say that one particular model does a better job than another at forecasting one particular storm. Anyway, looking at Clark's spaghetti plot of the models, specifically the 0Z 8/28 run, every model had Gustax going north of Jamaica (things are more evident if you go further back, but I wanted to get the closest picture I could). That was forecasting like 12/24-hours out.... The current models are forecasting several days out. I don't really have a lot of confidence in the guidence at this point....

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill

Edited by Terra (Fri Aug 29 2008 05:46 AM)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
another center fix trial [Re: Terra]
      #83277 - Fri Aug 29 2008 06:05 AM

Still doesn´t look like a full penetration, because the center is at the jamaican southwest coast.. The data: max. flight level wind: 55 kt, max. surface wind 48 kt, pressure 989 hPa.
There is also a slight nothward component in the motion now. Seems to be moving WNW.


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