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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: MichaelA]
      #60871 - Fri Oct 21 2005 05:51 PM

Quote:

Actually, it has moved from Marco Island (south of Naples) to Cape Coral (north of Naples). It was pretty much on Marco for a couple of days.




That is not true. Cape Coral is still north of the dotted line on the NHC's map. The forecast line now seems to be right at the Lee County/Collier County border.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: MissBecky]
      #60872 - Fri Oct 21 2005 05:52 PM

URNT12 KNHC 212148
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/21:42:30Z
B. 20 deg 34 min N
086 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2458 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 142 deg 115 kt
G. 46 deg 028 nm
H. EXTRAP 928 mb
I. 7 C/ 3044 m
J. 18 C/ 3040 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C24
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A Wilma OB 28
MAX FL WIND 119 KT N QUAD 20:01:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB


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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 89
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: MissBecky]
      #60875 - Fri Oct 21 2005 05:55 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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komi
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: Rdietch]
      #60876 - Fri Oct 21 2005 05:57 PM

Hmm, is not movig too much in this moment:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html


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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: FlaMommy]
      #60877 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:01 PM

On the morning Charlie hit, he thought it was Tampa's storm. Later that morning or early afternoon, he stated that Charlie had wobbled to the right and if this continued, it wouldn't be a wobble but instead a change in the direction of the storm. A few minutes earlier, a met from Bay News 9 noted the same thing. So I wouldn't say that he predicted that Charlie was not a Tampa storm. He merely made the call first about the change in direction.

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Torali
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: MikeC]
      #60878 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:01 PM

For those of you interested, some realtor in Cancun has been posting some pictures (as post attachments) here:

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

T


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: MissBecky]
      #60879 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:02 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: Torali]
      #60880 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:05 PM

thats absolutely amazing....serves the guy right holding onto the railing for being out there....lol

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: MichaelA]
      #60881 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:06 PM

Quote:

OK. Bonita Springs.




Not that it really matters... At the 11 p.m. update the track will probably have shifted southward again, LOL. All this back-and-forth is driving me crazy! I think it will be another day before we really begin to have a firm idea of the actual landfall position.


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: MissBecky]
      #60882 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:08 PM

Well the 18Z GFS came out and shows landfall south of Tampa (again) but deeper than the 12Z. This is at hour 66, so it means the stall, if at all, will be short lived. Don't let your guard down on this one folks>

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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: Steve H1]
      #60884 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:12 PM

Quote:

Well the 18Z GFS came out and shows landfall south of Tampa (again) but deeper than the 12Z. This is at hour 66, so it means the stall, if at all, will be short lived. Don't let your guard down on this one folks>




How far south? On another forum someone said around Ft Myers. (Not originally from Florida, so I don't know the coast very well.)


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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: Lance Wilson]
      #60887 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:28 PM

I recall from reading previous posts that there is sometimes an elongation in the direction of travel as a hurricane is beginning to turn. As I've been watching the model runs such as NOGAPS over the past few days they seem to confirm that this elongation does occur when the show their turns (is that correct?)

Does it appear to anyone else that there is this type of elongation beginning to occur in the last portion of the IR loop? It also seems like there is a bit of a more northerly component in the last frames of the floaters. This may just be more stairstepping...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: Geoff]
      #60890 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:33 PM

Too early to tell if it is a wobble or trend.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: MichaelA]
      #60891 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:34 PM

New thread.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tb2005&Number=60889#Post60889


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60893 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:36 PM

Don't these recons just continue to blow you away?

Even now, as perfect an eye as you will ever see...11 deg temp diff! still holding her own even with the inevitable slippage in pressure and wind speed. Not really enough to make any difference to those in her path. I am not jaded and am still amazed at the low pressure she has managed to maintain. Truth is that ERC was a cakewalk for Wilma.

Cozumel is just about to start getting battered with the strong SE eyewall, that will take about 5 hours to complete, and then they'll be "glad" to have only 100mph winds. They'll probably be able to start going outside around noon tomorrow. It will take that long to pass over them...about 36 hours in total.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #60896 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:43 PM

Quote:

New thread.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tb2005&Number=60889#Post60889




i guess that this means...

NEW THREAD Has Been Started by MikeC


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Approaching the Yucatan Peninsula [Re: Margie]
      #60897 - Fri Oct 21 2005 06:45 PM

I'm suprised it has been able to maintain itself as long as it has, though the warming convection on IR suggests some slow weakening might be commencing. Whether or not the winds have actually come down at all today is questionable... flight-level winds suggest that they have, but the dropsondes suggest they have not. The multiple wind maxes are making it more difficult to assess the wind field.

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