Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 331 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | (show all)
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
presence [Re: dem05]
      #65878 - Sat Jun 10 2006 12:31 AM

there is officially no storm down there, but it's pretty much a depression now. the system is losing its strung out profile, taking more the appearance of a weak tropical cyclone undergoing southwesterly shear. it'll probably be post analyzed as an active tropical cyclone back to 00Z, or possibly even 18Z june 9. by the time recon gets there tomorrow it'll probably be a tropical storm. even chances at least.
this system will likely strengthen in spurts and never get very strong. i don't see the synoptic setup for it to get very strong. the majority of june storms that get to hurricane are moving north/northeast at the time. it's unlikely that shear will fall below 10-15kt over the gulf, so the storm should be one of those ungainly half-systems with almost all the convection and strong winds on the eastern side. interpretation: if the storm follows the consensus track from earlier northward then turns northeast across the upper part of the peninsula, the squalls and heavy rains will mostly pass over the peninsula.
the way things look right now i don't buy a system moving nw into the central or western gulf. to get out there it would have to remain very weak, charging into shear and being consistently trimmed back into a swirl out ahead of the convection. more than likely it will move mostly northward (maybe nnw if the heights rise to the ne with east coast trough receding some and the subtropical ridge building westward), and then turn ne when it reaches the ridge axis/meets the next shortwave diving down into the eastern u.s. next week. it makes sense.
right now it seems as if the system has the potential to do more good than harm--florida needs rain, and the chances this system will get very strong are not great. it may baroclinically deepen as it turns ne, but won't have much time over the gulf, and has more of a chance to do that perhaps after crossing the state. biggest threat may be severe thunderstorms and tornadic cells moving over the state around monday/tuesday.
dependent on how it forms and where it moves, there may be a risk of impact further up the coast. mid week could be rough along the carolina coastline. potential end-of-week inclement weather in southeastern new england and the canadian maritimes. a major rain event in the northeast from a tropical system could be catastrophic, but as of yet the models aren't making that suggestion.
models no longer interested in the june 13 wave. very deep upper trough east of the islands, which may enhance the wave as it approaches, but will likely shred whatever arrives. some wave energy should be in the caribbean... hard to say what it will encounter there in terms of upper winds, as the evolution of disturbance 90L probably doesn't unfold right in the models and has them thrown some.
HF 0531z10june

the 205am disco says some interesting things. first off it agrees that the current disturbance should develop into a tropical cyclone on saturday. secondly it mentions increasing moisture in the caribbean and more robust tropical waves with a stronger convective regime related to an MJO wave. it specifically points out the wave i've been eyeballing for days as expected to be more robust than recent others. will see what that entails... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Jun 10 2006 01:48 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 461
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: presence [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65880 - Sat Jun 10 2006 05:05 AM

hmmm, 5am and it's not a depression yet, and frankly I don't
blame them for not upgrading it. The system still looks very
disorganized with most of the convection firing up to the
northand east of the low pressure center. T-numbers
are holding at 1.5 as well. so no additional organiaztion
indicated from that tool.

(do find it interesting that the pressure is down to
1005 Mb. There's the chance that they could
end up going straight to TS status if the system
remains disorganized)

Interestingly enough, the LLC still seems to be heading NW
to NNW, which could run it right into that high velocity wind
band just to the north of the center. (from 87.5W 20N
to 80W 25N) though it looks like the system is starting
to push that jet north.

Also interesting is the new band of convection firing to the
south of the system. While it's located some distance from
the LLC, it wouldn't take much to organize that into a feeder
band and help crank the system up into a full blown TD.
There is a LLC, but with the Midlevel concentration still
not co-aligned, it's going to take a while for the system
to get together. (though the northern convection could be
enough to push the system over the edge, once it
gets any sort of convection over the center.

As far as where it's going to go? well, if the door opens
as the models predict, the system will slowly take its
NNW movement and shift N then NNE then NE.

THe models are tending to show a land fall anywhere from
3 - 6 days out anywhere from the pandhandle to Tampa.
Except the UK, which tends to weaken the feature and
send it towards the Texas Coast. NOGAPS also seems
to be losing the feature entirely, but pulls up a strong
low pressure to appear on the atlantic coast near JAX
after losing the system.

Don't see any thing new on the next week. so all eyes
are focused.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2133
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: presence [Re: Bloodstar]
      #65881 - Sat Jun 10 2006 05:19 AM

Early last night I began suspecting that the mid-level low, having snagged most of the deeper convection off to the northeast, may be helping to generate a new LLC out that way, as well. I can *almost* see reason to believe that there are now two LLCs, with a possibility of two systems ultimately forming from this mess, one which heads generally WNW or NW - the other generally NNE or NE.

Then again, if the previous (old) surface low can just get some deep convection to finally wrap around it today.. *if* and *fiiiinally* being the key, I can see rapid intensification as somewhat possible.. by rapid I don't mean anything like going from Invest to hurricane (besides being essentially unheard of!) , but possibly Invest to TS .. or TD to upper-end TS.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: presence [Re: cieldumort]
      #65882 - Sat Jun 10 2006 07:20 AM

Looking at this morning's IR loop, I can see why the NHC is holding off on pulling the trigger. The LLC is fairly obvious, but the convection has not maintained itself around that LLC consistently. In fact, looking at the overnight "visible" loop, the LLC is well southwest of the convection I believe.

It's possible the visible imagery will reveal a tight LLC and cause the NHC to pull the trigger, but I still think they will wait for recon.

Long term forecast disturbs me because the folks on TWC don't seem confident in the computer models which put it going NE across the peninsula.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: presence [Re: Hugh]
      #65883 - Sat Jun 10 2006 07:48 AM

Not a depression yet? It seems we saw a lot of this last year, where we were watching a disturbed area of weather that just couldn't get it's act together, but when it did watch out..(Katrina, Wilma) I'm not saying this is gonna be a Katrina or Wilma, but I think once it gets it's structure organized(if it does) it may suprise people.

Hurricane Charley( Port Charlotte '04)

Edited by charlottefl (Sat Jun 10 2006 07:49 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
TD One forms [Re: charlottefl]
      #65884 - Sat Jun 10 2006 07:57 AM

According to NRL... NHC pulled has pulled the trigger. First image of TD One at 1115z.

ETA:
Steve Lyons working at 8am on Saturday. NOT a good sign (although not unexpected with the first tropical cyclone developing).


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Jun 10 2006 08:04 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: presence [Re: cieldumort]
      #65885 - Sat Jun 10 2006 07:59 AM

Quote:

I can *almost* see reason to believe that there are now two LLCs, with a possibility of two systems ultimately forming from this mess, one which heads generally WNW or NW - the other generally NNE or NE.




In slowly developing systems, it is very common for the MLC and LLC to be displaced, and this is what we are observing here. I see no reason for this system not to become a tropical storm this weekend. Based on IR images over the last couple hours, I think that the convection is slowly organizing and we should see TD status later today and TS status tomorrow. I am waiting for some good visible images this morning to more clearly judge how organized the system is.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: presence [Re: charlottefl]
      #65887 - Sat Jun 10 2006 08:04 AM

looking at radar off the western tip of Cuba...we may have our TD at 11am....radar is showing that it actually might cross the extreme western tip near 12pm today and into the gulf....alot of dry air on its western side is slowly relaxing.....recon should find it a TS later today and watches will go up possibly this evening for western florida unless somehow the system becomes disorganzied this afternoon. I expect this to be a strong TS or weak hurricane by Sunday night or Monday morning and cross the state Monday or Monday night timeframe. A strong dip in the Jet for this time of year will push the system NE on Monday...and with a system going with the mid-level prevailing winds....shear will not happer the system.... People along the S Carolina coast and especially the outerbanks should also closly monitor this system.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: presence [Re: scottsvb]
      #65888 - Sat Jun 10 2006 08:07 AM

FYI... there's a new thread up about TD One on the main page. First advisory to be issued at 11am EDT.

I just don't know about the computer models.... that hard right turns seems too abrupt.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2133
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: presence [Re: Ronn]
      #66015 - Sat Jun 10 2006 05:45 PM

I might be a new member here, but I've been following tropical cyclones for over 30 years.

This is *not* your typical level of disorganization and multiple LLCs.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 7 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is disabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 73529

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center