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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Storm is still in formation stages [Re: cieldumort]
      #66126 - Sun Jun 11 2006 04:58 AM

Well, it has been repositioned to the west... and according to NHC, maybe not as far west as it really is. Looks like the shear is taking its toll, with the centre so removed from the convection. Interesting that the Pulaski Shoal Light CMAN Station (Dry Tortugas) reported a sustained wind of 40 mph at near 06Z today. However, given the appearance on satellite imagery, i agree with NHC's decision not to upgrade the system as it may well have been a short lived transient convective burst. Recon will be leaving for the cyclone within the next hour, and should be in there later this morning. Will be interesting to see if they can find a new centre within the convective mass, rather than just the exposed 'official' one!

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Conditions & Thoughts-Cortez [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #66127 - Sun Jun 11 2006 05:15 AM

've been a member for a coule of years. Mostly silent, watching, and listening, but occasionally adding. I'm not a meteorologist, but I have been watching storms for many years. I was born during Donna and the fascination never left. I only endured cat 1's and 2's until Charley. Charley was a Cat 4 when it blew over, under, in, and around my house. It will never be forgotten and its devestation will never be healed.

Our woods are a tinderbox of broken, mangled, and tossed trees. Pine crashed into Oak which crashed into Cypress, and it is all a jumble. 350 acres of fuel waiting to be lit. We've spent months, day after day trying to clear out the debris. We finally threw our hands in the air and said, "this just isn't possible."

For what it's worth, I've been staring at the radar out of cuba & key west. I've been staring at the sea temps and wind shear out of NOAA. This messy tropical depression is coming off the mountains of cuba now and her eye is forming as we speak. The clouds don't show it yet, but the radar does. We saw orange an hour ago and now it's all purple, pink & white with a beautiful clear center. The Gulf temps are warm enough to greatly encourage her growth. The shear is predicted light at all levels between now and landfall.

The sky here is very odd tonight, too many purples and pinks and the air feels very heavy but brisk. My dog won't go outiside for his nightly whizz without being dragged by the collar. Now there's meteorology for you!

My prediction, for what it's worth :-) This TD spins up into hurr strength before hitting somewhere between cedar key and tallahassee.

-Bev in Cortez


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2136
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Storm is still in formation stages [Re: Rich B]
      #66128 - Sun Jun 11 2006 06:04 AM

Many of those C-MAN stations out there have their anemometers up around 100-150' .. I discount those fully, any day of the week and in any storm. I do not know the elevation of that particular C-MAN, so it remains useless to me until I find out.

I still believe that shear *may* slacken just enough for the current LLC to continue to induce some more banding around it, possibly to the point of some real, legit convection, but I certainly feel less than confident that it will.

What a jog in position it would be if they have to assign yet another LLC, or "mean center of circulation."

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Jun 11 2006 06:39 AM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Storm is still in formation stages [Re: cieldumort]
      #66130 - Sun Jun 11 2006 06:40 AM

Recon is now in the depression, and sending back obs. Just been looking at the long range radar from Key West, and not sure but i think there could be evidence of a circulation on the northwestern edge of the area of deep convection that has moved off the north coast of Cuba. The area im looking at is north of Havana and southwest of Key West, FL. There appears to be some rotation. Any thoughts? As a side note, NWS Key West has issued Small Craft Advisories for strong storms with gusts over 40 knots.

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Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Storm is still in formation stages [Re: Rich B]
      #66131 - Sun Jun 11 2006 07:15 AM

center is very easy to find this morning.... well away from the storms.... looks like the second scenario is coming into the picture more....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg


there is one burst of convection that is trying to wrap from the north to the west side... but the shear is strong!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jun 11 2006 07:18 AM)


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