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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: wxman007]
      #82432 - Wed Aug 20 2008 12:58 AM

Regarding stranger things:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1994/GORDON/track.gif

Gordon, 1994.. notice we are doing fall sort of storms in summer?

What a year, boy was that one fun to track...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: LoisCane]
      #82433 - Wed Aug 20 2008 01:42 AM

Fay should halt her northward movement in the next 6-12 hrs then meander for a day or so before moving west due to the building ridge now entering the Ohio Valley tonight and into the Mid Atlantic and NorthEast on Weds. How strong the ridge gets will determine if Fay moves W or just north (or south) of west.
Currently Fays center is just south of the dry air pocket around Melbourne and meandering NNE again and should come off the coast near Melbourne beach in a few hours.. Then the question is (when she gets to 28.5-29N) how far off the coast will she be? 10miles? 50 miles? It will make a difference in how strong she gets. Then since the ridge is building in Weds-Thurs how much time over the water does she have and direction she takes. She does have a 60% chance of making it to the GOM off of Hernado-Citrus county by Friday. Also I give it the same amount of making it to a 80mph hurricane if she stays offshore Brevard at least 25miles until Thursday night.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: scottsvb]
      #82434 - Wed Aug 20 2008 02:07 AM

Well i think fay is crossing US-1 right now, just south of Malabar, Fl. She is so close to the Atlantic now... based on obs from wx stations and radar... i say she will officially hit the water in less than a hour. i would say she's at about N 28.04108 W 80.58197 at 2pm EDT... just about 3-5 miles from the coast on her current track. for the center of circulation. noticing feeder bands starting to flare up on the SE side of coc, out over the water... storms tops are increasing per MLB radar. and a stronger band is showing up on her SE side hugging the coast now...

this is a big help and locating certer of Fay

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 20 2008 02:36 AM)


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82435 - Wed Aug 20 2008 02:20 AM

is there a chart or something so I would know what my location is? Like 88.54W? I checked in hurricane ask and tell with no luck. Thanks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #82436 - Wed Aug 20 2008 02:32 AM

Quote:

is there a chart or something so I would know what my location is? Like 88.54W? I checked in hurricane ask and tell with no luck. Thanks





try this web site.. using the most famous map system in the world...GOOGLE MAPS
shouldn't take but a few mins to get use too... then when you mark with a spot on the map.. you can find the distance to you next point.

http://mapper.acme.com/

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 20 2008 02:33 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82437 - Wed Aug 20 2008 02:43 AM

Well i say she's entering the Atlantic as we speak... right over Melbourne Beach. Part of the center of circulation is over the water now. Today is going to be a long day to see how much time she has to come back up in strength... Impressive she only went up to 992mb... i just saw three wx stations go that low in the MLB beach area, so i pretty sure thats what she is holding at..... by the way she very close to the MLB nexrad.. and the data is pretty good!

time about 1:40am CDT

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 20 2008 02:48 AM)


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82438 - Wed Aug 20 2008 02:48 AM

What is you feel on Fay? She is making me very nervous.

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stinger
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Loc: east orange county florida
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #82439 - Wed Aug 20 2008 04:08 AM

The wind direction has changed in east orange county florida so she has moved at least slightly north I just want her to GO AWAY I am tired and want to sleep ;}

--------------------
what hurricane oooooh that one!!!


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: stinger]
      #82440 - Wed Aug 20 2008 04:20 AM

Me Too! This storm has my nerves shot.

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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #82442 - Wed Aug 20 2008 05:00 AM

Anyone else thinking Fay is not gonna make it back into the atlantic? High press is building in pretty quickly ahead of her..

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: charlottefl]
      #82449 - Wed Aug 20 2008 08:09 AM

the GFS still has Fay going back into the Gulf and strengthening as she heads west, but may have her a bit strong before crossing florida to the west..looks like Fay just does not want to go over the Atlantic and is hugging the coast

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: pcola]
      #82451 - Wed Aug 20 2008 08:45 AM

Maybe Fay's afraid to go back in the water...seems to be a land-seeking storm.

Significant flooding in the Treasure Coast (Vero, Ft. Pierce, St. Lucie) area. Real challenge getting to work on Hutchinson Island this morning.

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast [Re: wxman007]
      #82456 - Wed Aug 20 2008 09:17 AM

1960:

"The most notable storm of the season was Hurricane Donna, which reached Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale and was the longest-lasting major hurricane in the history of the Atlantic basin. It was the worst storm to strike Florida in ten years, causing six direct deaths, and causing $387 million in damage ($2.4 billion in 2000 dollars).

Also, Ethel reached Category 5 strength very briefly before falling apart prior to landfall in Mississippi. This marks the first of only four seasons that two or more Category 5 hurricanes were officially recorded (the others being the 1961, 2005 and 2007 seasons); it remains the only season with two consecutive Category 5 hurricanes."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_Atlantic_hurricane_season

After Donna, Florence was a spring shower for Florida. ;}


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: wxman007]
      #82457 - Wed Aug 20 2008 09:18 AM

The GFS has been fairly consistent with her track east to west across FL though a tad further north than her current location. If she is stalling and she makes the turn to the west sooner, all bets are off as to her potential restrengthening which as we all know is more an art and not a science.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Fay Nearly Stationary; Gulf of Mexico? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #82460 - Wed Aug 20 2008 09:45 AM

Last couple hours radar suggests if there has been any movement, it's a slight jog due east. I've seen no evidence of movement to the north unless it is so little it appears stationary.. I think it's time to begin looking at what the model consensus is saying; the Gulf of Mexico; any thoughts?

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
Re: fay heading seaward [Re: berrywr]
      #82463 - Wed Aug 20 2008 09:58 AM

Nice model to support your thinking.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs_caribbean.html


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