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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 331 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


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Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: danielw]
      #91414 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:23 PM

Just issued a vortex message, so we have a center @ 1006Mb

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 97L Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #91415 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:23 PM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 21:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 20:55:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°31'N 57°46'W (14.5167N 57.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 158 miles (255 km) to the NE (52°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 82 nautical miles (94 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 90° at 53kts (From the E at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 92 nautical miles (106 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 457m (1,499ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:25:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: danielw]
      #91416 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:24 PM

Vortex sent: 1006mb
From the vortex:
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)

Should be Irene.

interesting that SFC winds reported are higher than flight level. I've seen that before, but it's not the norm.
Soon-to-be-Irene still doesn't look very good on satellite, but given that it's on top of the islands, an upgrade should be a given.

Impressive blow-up of convection happening in the last several frames on the AVN loop, too. When it got its act together, it looks like it REALLY got its act together.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 20 2011 05:30 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: Hugh]
      #91417 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:29 PM

This center is a bit south of some estimates, makes it more likely that the center will miss the mountains in Haiti, but may still get some of the convection. Bad news is that it is more likely to become a very big storm.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: MikeC]
      #91418 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:33 PM

Quote:

This center is a bit south of some estimates, makes it more likely that the center will miss the mountains in Haiti, but may still get some of the convection. Bad news is that it is more likely to become a very big storm.




By "very big" do you mean physically, or in terms of intensity? The overall cloud envelope is already pretty huge - and the LLC is much further south than it appears to be on the AVN loop. For a nearly 60mph tropical storm, Irene doesn't look very well organized - yet.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: Hugh]
      #91419 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:36 PM

I would say both. Gonna be big in size, well already is and big in winds also, especially if it misses Hispanola to the south or most of it.
Yes they found west winds and it has the strength to go straight to TS. Wondering if the NHC will do it. Under normal circumstances they wouldnt but as it is so close to land they may go ahead. Now we wait.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: MikeC]
      #91420 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:36 PM

More of the very large physical size, as in convection will cover a large area. Less land impact would imply a stronger storm though. Irene may start out with 50-55mph winds on the first advisory.

The usual TVCN/Concensus would suggest South Florida right now, so it's likely that Florida will be in the edge of the first cone, but it also would likely mean a track over Haiti too (Which could destroy/weaken the system ala Emily, but Emily also was struggling to develop the entire time it was active)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: MikeC]
      #91422 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:42 PM

Latest models I can find remind me of the picture from a few years back that painted a bullseye on Florida. How much, if any, impact there is by Hispanola will be interesting. We know what the island did to the last tropical cyclone that came near it.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: Hugh]
      #91423 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:48 PM

97L still has to pass over the Lesser Antilles. They are known for shredding storms. That's the Hurricane Graveyard, the Eastern Caribbean.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: Hugh]
      #91424 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:51 PM

I'm starting to think that they're not going to upgrade yet. The system appears to not have an organized LLC. There's a really large area of light and variable winds on the south side and it looks like there are multiple areas of wind shifts.

It's close. (and of course once I say that, it'll probably be upgraded 5 minutes later

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: MikeC]
      #91425 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:53 PM

I can't see it getting named right now based on this last recon pass, it's just not defined enough to really count as a closed system yet. It probably will be later tonight or in the morning though. Those in Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and Guadeloupe will want to treat it as a nasty storm regardless of Tropical Storm designation or not.

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
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Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: NewWatcher]
      #91426 - Sat Aug 20 2011 05:54 PM Attachment (440 downloads)

I'm not sure they will call it. Recon has been going up the west side of where they found a center earlier and they are no longer finding any west winds. It also looks like a strong MLC has formed NE of where this center is located. Attached image shows what I'm thinking

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Sat Aug 20 2011 05:55 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91427 - Sat Aug 20 2011 06:31 PM

Hmm after the Second vortex Message, Best track was renumbered to 09, indications are it may go ahead and be named very soon.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: MikeC]
      #91428 - Sat Aug 20 2011 06:36 PM

Looks like it'll be a 50mph tropical storm. It's still disorganized, but once it gets consolidated, things could get ... interesting.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: MikeC]
      #91429 - Sat Aug 20 2011 06:37 PM

Quote:

Hmm after the Second vortex Message, Best track was renumbered to 09, indications are it may go ahead and be named very soon.




NRL has it as NINE, not IRENE. Very interesting, given the 45kt wind report.

Update: Best Track has IRENE.

Update2: Latest models now seem to want to take it up the coast of Florida. Up the WEST coast, that is, straight up it through into the Big Bend area.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 20 2011 06:42 PM)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: 97L CDO formation?? [Re: Hugh]
      #91430 - Sat Aug 20 2011 06:38 PM

AL, 09, 2011082018, , BEST, 0, 146N, 572W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 45, 1010, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRENE, M,

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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