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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 331 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #91514 - Sun Aug 21 2011 10:20 PM

New vortex - pressure down another MB to 993. Fix is ALMOST due west of the previous fix (just slightly north of due west). Estimated SFC winds: 76mph. We could soon have the season's first hurricane, if the NHC confirms the recon info.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #91515 - Sun Aug 21 2011 10:25 PM

Irene has definitly slowed down alot looking almost 10mph maybe.I would usually associate that with a turn coming up but the ridge is there maybe just consolidation.

Hugh that 2mins N and 18mins W basically due W

Edited by javlin (Sun Aug 21 2011 10:31 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: javlin]
      #91516 - Sun Aug 21 2011 10:32 PM

In the last several frames of the radar loop, an eye definately appears to be forming - and Irene definately appears to be hitting its breaks. It's going to be a LONG night for Puerto Rico.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Hugh]
      #91517 - Sun Aug 21 2011 10:32 PM

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)

8 degree Celsius spread between the Outside Eye temp and the Inside Eye temp. Vacuum is working better.

5 degree Celsius dewpoint spread inside the Eye/ Center. This means the air inside is drying out. Which is a precursor to the Eye clearing out vertically. The vacuum is working, but it is still not at 100 percent efficiency.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4440
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: danielw]
      #91518 - Sun Aug 21 2011 11:05 PM

They went closer to the TVCN and consensus with the 11PM track, but only marginally so. Irene may briefly hit hurricane force before landfall in Puerto Rico (at 70mph it's very close now). After that the official forecast takes it along the northern coast of the Dominican republic, and later through the Bahamas, with landfall near Cape Canaveral. The cone still is fairly uncertain at that range and may extend eastward or slightly westward. With a lean toward the east right now. Those in the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina should continue to monitor Irene.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #91519 - Sun Aug 21 2011 11:16 PM

Notice the green semicircle. That's the highest cloud tops and they appear to be encircling the CDO. Or just inside the edge of the CDO.



A Near Perfect match of the Highest Cloud Tops to the strongest convection.



Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 21 2011 11:26 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4440
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Hugh]
      #91520 - Sun Aug 21 2011 11:30 PM

Just a note: Puerto Rico's radar is out, not sure if it will be for the night or not. The island will probably have widespread power outages.

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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #91521 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:28 AM

in the water vaper imagery 03:45 UTC, you can see what looks like a blue comet, is that the eyewall forming?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: mwillis]
      #91522 - Mon Aug 22 2011 01:16 AM

Seeing some sustained winds near 60 mph with higher gusts in islands just east of eastern Puerto Rico. Irene looks to be quite close to hurricane strength the higher elevations will likely see hurricane winds quite easily. Models not huge change GFS now going right along FL east coast as of 0z run slightly left from previous runs.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hurricane Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Joeyfl]
      #91523 - Mon Aug 22 2011 06:47 AM

Irene is upgraded to Hurricane. NHC is now saying that the storm will only graze Hispanola, and minimal land interaction will result in unlikely disruption of the storm. They are calling for the storm to become major at some point:

"GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING."
(NHC Forecast Discussion)

Also, the 5:50 special update from NHC:

"PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED ON PUERTO RICO...AND MORE THAN 800 THOUSAND HOMES ARE WITHOUT POWER ON THE ISLAND.

ALSO...FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO."

IR shows the storm slightly disrupted by Puerto Rico but still with overall good appearance, but with it reentering favorable water conditions, it should recover fairly quickly.

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 22 2011 06:56 AM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Joeyfl]
      #91526 - Mon Aug 22 2011 07:56 AM

06 runs about the same with the GFS back a little more west and the gdfl has shifted back West a lot more then the 00 run.

The thing about the GFDL is over the years i have seen this from the model where it was way out of line with the GFS and other models but after awhile made its way back to the others.Those in Floirda and up the us easy coast should keep close watch as the track keep shifting more and more east


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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 137
Loc: East Central Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea [Re: ralphfl]
      #91529 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:06 AM

New Thread up.

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