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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Mid-Atlantic wave
      #80125 - Tue Jun 17 2008 09:32 PM

The one located around 37W, 10N today. If it holds its current strength and makes it into the Caribbean, it may have a chance to develop into something. It certainly looks like the shear that was over the Caribbean basin has relaxed substantially over the past few days (based entirely on sat loops).

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum. Note that the Storm Forum is reserved for named systems, Invests, and seasonal Forecasts.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 18 2008 05:40 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Mid-Atlantic wave [Re: MichaelA]
      #80131 - Wed Jun 18 2008 04:16 PM

Tropical wave continues to hold good low-level structure, but it does not have any significant convective development. A weak circulation center is evident at 12.6N 47W at 18/15Z moving to the west at 15 knots. Wind shear has not relaxed in this area and is not expected to for the next few days. SST is marginal at 27C, so really a low probability for any additional development.

Unisys 36hr Wind Shear Forecast

Cheers,
ED


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Mid-Atlantic wave [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #80132 - Wed Jun 18 2008 05:08 PM

The shear is more evident on the sat loops today since there is a little more cirrus in the area to see. There is a significant convective flair up southeast of the primary vortex today, but that seems to be tracking along the broader circulation pattern. Still, this is a rather impressive wave for mid-June in this area.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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M.A.
Weather Guru


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Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Mid-Atlantic wave [Re: MichaelA]
      #80133 - Wed Jun 18 2008 05:19 PM

Looking at the latest WV loop I dont think this wave has much of a chance of developing either. Shear seems to be tearing it apart. Although I will agree that these waves coming off Africa seem to be holding together a lot better than the normal for this time of year. Strange season already, I dont remember the last time I saw a cold front advancing into central Florida in mid June either.

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DarleneCane
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Miami Beach, FL
Re: Mid-Atlantic wave [Re: M.A.]
      #80135 - Wed Jun 18 2008 08:02 PM

June often has weak frontal boundaries. The temperature isn't changing from the frontal boundary as much as the rain. And, often a frontal boundary in June spawns a weak sub-tropical or tropical storm after it stalls out and remains in the area. Not all that uncommon. A wave this strong and somewhat organized this early in June is more uncommon I believe.

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PWiggins
Unregistered




Re: Mid-Atlantic wave [Re: DarleneCane]
      #80136 - Wed Jun 18 2008 11:25 PM

It seems on the latest satellite picture the center of circulation is advancing out infront of the wave and is moving a little North of West. If it can continue to wander in this direction it could get north of most of the Westerly wind shear. It might have a chance. It has survived this long, we'll see. It does have cooler water to contend with. I'm giving it a 6 on the hypemeter.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Mid-Atlantic wave [Re: PWiggins]
      #80138 - Thu Jun 19 2008 03:05 PM

It still bears watching, but there is a heap of shear over it and just to its west this morning. The shear looks to be a lot less in the eastern Caribbean. We'll see what happens and how much definition is left once it passes the windward islands.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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